“The Greatest Show on Grass”
This week to lead into the Super Bowl as it always does, the PGA Tour goes to the biggest party in golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7266 yards, plays a bit shorter because of the altitude, all three Par 5s are some of the easiest on tour and are all reachable in 2 by a majority of golfers and 17 is a drivable Par 4, off the tee golfers will see narrow landing areas with bunkers placed strategically and water in play (only three water hazards on the course) in play on seven holes, lot of roll out from tee shots, large misses could land in desert vegetation, rough around the fairways isn’t too penal and golfers should still be able to hit decent approach shots out of it, with the high elevation drives (especially) and approach shots will go farther, overseeded POA trivial blend grass, bunkers guarding most greens, greens are relatively flat, firm and fast in a large variety of sizes, some of the easiest greens on tour, this course has longest driving distance average on tour (averaging 296 (305 the last three year) yards vs. 283 yards tour average), scrambling and GIR % are higher than tour average where fairways gained is lower than tour average so missing the fairways doesn’t matter much
Tournament Notes
- The biggest party in golf and the crowd is always a big factor here, drawing a typical 500k fans for the week
- My favorite non-major of the year
- A bad finish at the Farmers hasn’t really been too detrimental to the top of the leaderboard here historically the next week
- Behind Augusta and Waialae, this is the third highest place on tour where course history makes an impact
- Not a signature event this season
- 5 of the last 8 years this event has gone to a playoff and the other two prior to Scheffler winning by 2 strokes last year, were decided by just a stroke
- Last year all T9 finishers here gained on approach from 150-175 yards
- 12 of the 13 T10 finishers in 2022 gained strokes on the Par 5s
- 12 of the last 13 winners here had a T5 in one of their previous 5 events
- Since 2000, only nine 54 hole leaders went on to win and only three since 2009 (Phil in 2013, Rickie in 2019, Scottie last year)
- 31 of the last 44 players in the last seven years that finished T5 here played Torrey the week before, 11 of them had MC’d at Torrey, 7 had made cut but finished outside T30 at Torrey and in 2021 Carlos Ortiz finished 29th, Scheffler finished T20 and Theegala finished 25 in 2022, JT finished 25th in 2023. Only Tony Finau (T6) and Bubba Watson (T6) in 2020, Xander Schauffele (2) in 2021, and Rahm and Day (both T7) in 2023 finished T10 or better at Torrey the week before in that span of time
- Bad putters can win here
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (7 of the Par 4s are 442-490 yards)
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.4%)
Field
132 golfers – Really solid field strength for a non-elevated event
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
Runner Up Last Year: Nick Taylor (-17)
One and Done: Scottie Scheffler
One and Done Considerations: Scottie, lock him in
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 11600: +588 – The best player on the PGA Tour as long as he can putt, back to back defending champion with 1,1,7,MC finishes here, 6,17,5,6,2,31,23,3,4,3,3,3,2,5,11,10,1,4,12,1 finishes in his last 20 events going back to the win here last year, 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 28th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 4th in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 5th in SG: ARG, 121st in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, I tried to find a reason more than the price not to bet him this week but I just couldn’t, this is the only course that he actually putts well at (has gained strokes on these green) and is the back to back champ, so fuck it, we’re on Scottie this week at a ridiculous price
Max Homa: 9800: +2200 – One of the top players in the field and I like his price here, 39,14,42,6,26 finishes here, 66,13,14,7,9,5,6,10,12,21 finishes in his last ten events, 39th in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 40th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 15th in Par 5 Scoring, 20th in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 38th in SG: ARG, 43rd in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained
J.T. Poston: 8900: +3500 – Playing great golf right now and keeps popping on my model with the form that I think leads to a win, MC,23,11,37,26 finishes here, 20,11,6,5,44,3,22,24,7,2,41,6,6 in his last 13 events, 8th in Approach, 92nd in SG: OTT, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 45th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 21st in Par 5 Scoring, 23rd in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 17th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained
Eric Cole: 8500: +5000 – His missed cut seems to have just been an off week as he bounced back with a 14th place finish last week at Pebble where he gained 4.1 strokes T2G in three rounds, I’m still chasing him as he’s still in the Top 5 in my model every single week, can’t stay off betting him, he’s going to win eventually and I’m still going to be down betting on him, played fantastic in the swing season, I rode him all fall and he wasn’t able to get a win but consistently played great, first time playing this event, 14,MC,21,13,14,3,2,3,35,4,25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24 finishes in his last 20 events, 6th in Approach, 79th in SG: OTT, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 68th in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 30th in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, also taking the T6 each way
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
Proximity: 150-175 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Because I’m betting Scottie, I have a smaller card this week, since his odds are ridiculous and use up a ton of my bankroll
Bets
Outrights
2u Scottie Scheffler (+589, boosted in a combo of boosts between several books)
.5u Max Homa (+2200, Caesars)
.3u J.T. Poston (+3500, DraftKings)
.2u Eric Cole (+5000, BetRivers)
T6s
.2u Eric Cole (+1000, BetRivers each way)
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A Town's Zone 