Following an eventful week at the Waste Management, this week Tiger’s back as the PGA Tour heads to Riviera for the Genesis Invitational with a bit of a different format that we haven’t seen before.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7322 yards, plays long since the Par 5s are short and the Par 4s are all very long, all three Par 5s are under 600 yards and are the easiest holes on the course which give up around 45% of all birdies on this course (#1 is the easiest hole on the PGA and there is the most eagles here), also a drivable Par 4 (#10), besides the short #10 every Par 4 plays above Par with seven of the Par 4s over 450 yards, one of lowest driving accuracy courses (~55% vs. 62% Tour average) but that doesn’t effect things nearly as much as distance or long iron play do, tight fairways, lots of difficult fairway bunkers with huge lips, challenging doglegs especially to the right side (which favors righty’s that hit a fade or most lefty’s who play a draw), tree lined but that shouldn’t effect much if you don’t wildly miss the fairway, spongy kikuya fairways and somewhat thick rough (popular grass in South Africa but only here and other than here is only at Torrey Pines in the US) with inconsistent lies depending on where they land in the rough, small and fast POA greens that are multi-tiered with lots of undulation and slope, guarded by a lot of bunkers and false fronts, one of lowest GIR courses on tour (~58% vs. 66% Tour average) as one of the top ten hardest GIR courses on tour in eleven of the last twelve seasons, behind Pebble Beach here has hardest greens to hit on tour from within 125 yards (76%), toughest putting course between 3-5 feet in six of the last ten seasons, in top three courses on tour of missed putts within three feet every year, most missed putts on tour within 5 feet, bombers and lefty’s have an advantage
Tournament Notes
- In 2020, this tournament became a reduced field invitational and Tiger (who’s in the field for the first time this season this week) became the host. This year it’s even less with just 70 golfers in the field
- There is a cut this week, with the T50 and ties advancing to the weekend, the first time we’ve ever seen this small of a cut in an event
- 70% of the golfers that have finished T3 here in the last eight years have been inside T56 in approach in the year they finished T3
- 80% of the golfers that finished T3 here in the last 16 years have been inside the T55 in SG: T2G in the year they finished T3
- 14 of the last 16 winners had at least three previous career wins
- 16 of the last 18 winners had played in at least four previous Genesis Invitationals
- 14 of the last 18 winners have finished 12th or higher in a previous Genesis Invitationals
- 18 of the last 22 winners finished 35th or higher in their last start before the Genesis Invitational
- 14 of the last 17 winners played Pebble Beach or Waste Management in their previous start prior to winning
- This course hosted the PGA Championship in 2017
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, SG: ARG, Proximity 150-175 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (26.8%), 175-200 yards (22.8%), 200+ yards (23.1%)
Corollary Courses
- Augusta National (The Masters)
- Other than James Hahn in 2015, Max Homa in 2021 and Joaquin Niemann in 2022, every other golfer that has won here in the last 31 years has finished T22 or better at some point in their career
- 20 of the last 34 winners here have won or come in 2nd at The Masters at some point in their career
- 26 of the last 34 winners here have finished inside the T10 at Augusta all time
- 30 of the last 34 winners here have finished inside the T20 at Augusta all time
- Every lefty thats won the Masters (Bubba, Phil, Mike Weir) has won here multiple times
- Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship) – lot of crossover leaders (including James Hahn, JB Holmes, and Max Homa that won both events)
- Torrey Pines South (Farmers Insurance Open) – similar Kakuya grass
Field
70 golfers – Invitiational strength field with all the best players on the PGA Tour…and Tiger Woods!
Last Year’s Champion: Jon Rahm (not defending since he’s on the LIV Tour now) (-17)
Runner Up Last Year: Max Homa (-15)
One and Done: Rory McIlroy
One and Done Considerations: Rory, Scotty, Adam Scott
Players
Rory McIlroy: 11200: +1000 – He maps out great for this course every year, hits a natural draw, 29,10,MC,5,4,20,20 finishes here, 66,1,2,22,7,16,4,4,3,6,1,7,2,9,7,7 finishes in his last 16 events (PGA and DP World tour), 22nd in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 45th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 31st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 10th in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained
Sam Burns: 8700: +2300 – Has been playing really well lately and crushed it T2G in his 3rd place finish in Phoenix last week, 3,10,6,33,9,15,52,14,MC,19,32,MC,16,6 finishes in his last 14 events, MC,MC,3,23,MC finishes here the last five years, 21st in Approach, 31st in SG: OTT, 16th in Driving Distance, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 14th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 26th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 58th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 42nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 60th in SG: ARG, 10th in Putting, 36th in Opportunities Gained
Sahith Theegala: 8600: +3500 – I like how he maps out to this course and has played very well lately with a solid result here last year, 5,20,64,MC,2,MC,19,1,15,13 finishes in his last ten events, 6,48,49 finishes here, 34th in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 23rd in Driving Distance, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 61st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 42nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 11th in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 53rd in Opportunities Gained
Adam Scott: 8200: +2800 – Really pops for me this week and is one of my favorites with his course fit, recent form, and course history, 3rd in approach last week at Phoenix where he finished T8, fantastic course history and a previous winner here with MC,65,4,38,1,7,53,11,2,10,17,MC finishes, 8,20,5,41,7,33,MC,19,MC,9,29,8,5,31,39 finishes in his last 15 events, 31st in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 4th in Driving Distance, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 20th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 18th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 54th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 14th in Proximity 200+ yards, 20th in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ gained in his last 50 rounds
J.T. Poston: 7800: +5500 – Playing great golf right now and keeps popping on my model with the form that I think leads to a win so I’m going to keep betting him, MC,MC,43,30,28,17 finishes here, MC,20,11,6,5,44,3,22,24,7,2,41,6,6 in his last 14 events, 9th in Approach, 56th in SG: OTT, 49th in Driving Distance, 16th in Par 4 scoring, 36th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 13th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 19th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 38th in Proximity 200+ yards, 18th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained
Eric Cole: 7700: +7500 – I’m still chasing him as he’s still in the Top 5 in my model every single week, I can’t stay off betting him, he’s going to win eventually and I’m still going to be down betting on him while he played fantastic in the swing season and almost every week this year, without him coming through with the win, first time playing this event, 49,14,MC,21,13,14,3,2,3,35,4,25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24 finishes in his last 21 events, 7th in Approach, 50th in SG: OTT, 42nd in Driving Distance, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 4th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 2nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 24th in Proximity 200+ yards, 23rd in SG: ARG, 21st in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (15%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
1u Rory McIlroy (+1000, FanDuel)
.5u Sam Burns (+2300, DraftKings)
.5u Adam Scott (+2800, FanDuel)
.3u Sahith Theegala (+3500, FanDuel)
.2u J.T. Poston (+5500, FanDuel)
.2u Eric Cole (+7500, FanDuel)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 