After a solid week of golf at Riviera, this week the PGA Tour heads to the Mexico Open at Vidanta with the worst field of the year.
Course Breakdown
Par 71 (normally plays as a Par 73), 7456 yards, Greg Norman design, three Par 5s, five Par 3s and a drivable Par 4, resort course so it plays easily, large and wide open fairways without much trouble surrounding them which could give bombers an advantage, much farther driving distance here compared to tour average (~297 vs. 283), slow and above average sized paspalum greens (which is on most Caribbean resort courses) with water and sand surrounding the greens, near water so it could be effected by the wind but even with heavy winds in 2022 this was a birdiefest
Tournament Notes
- This is just the third year of this event
- This course used to host a Korn Ferry Tour event
Key Stats
Approach, Driving Distance, Opportunities Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (40.1%, only two years of data)
Corollary Courses
- Coco Beach Country Club (Puerto Rico Open)
- Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Championship)
Field
145 golfers – HORRIBLE field strength. It’s Finau, Zalatoris, and then a huge drop off in talent
Defending Champion: Tony Finau (-24)
Runner Up Last Year: Jon Rahm (-21)
One and Done: Tony Finau
One and Done Considerations: Finau, lock him in.
Players
Tony Finau: 12000: +950 – The odds are pretty bad but I still see value here since he’s by far the best player in the field, elite history here as the defending champion with a win and a second place finish the only two times here, 19,47,6,25,38,20,37,64,7 finishes in his last nine events, 3rd in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 49th in Driving Distance, 7th in Proximity 200+ yards, 67th in SG: ARG, 131st in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 73rd in Birdie+ Gained, pretty big bet here for me (using a boost for part of it)
Stephan Jaeger: 9800: +2500 – I’ve bet him already this year at much tougher events and this field is way easier, T18,T15 finishes here the last two weeks, 71,3,52,18,28,45,25,45,20,14,30,13,9,64,24,68,50,11,27,18 finishes in his last 20 events, 23rd in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 28th in Driving Distance, 20th in Proximity 200+ yards, 10th in SG: ARG, 60th in Putting, 69th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained
Taylor Pendrith: 9600: +2500 – Pops in my model and is second in the simulations in likelihood to win behind Finau, 9,MC,10,MC,8,15,3,MC,MC,MC,6,14 finishes in his last 13 events, T30 finish here last year, 13th in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 8th in Driving Distance, 30th in Proximity 200+ yards, 33rd in SG: ARG, 51st in Putting, 47th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained
Doug Ghim: 8800: +5500 – After riding him for the swing season I’m going back to him this week in this shitty field after he popped the last two weeks, 12,13,MC,MC,MC,MC,15,MC,MC,17,51,27,MC,26,33,15,12,19,27 finishes in his last 19 events, MC and T33 finishes here the last two years, 10th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 80th in Driving Distance, 41st in Proximity 200+ yards, 26th in SG: ARG, 78th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 48th in Birdie+ Gained
Jhonattan Vegas: 7600: +5500 – Has won several times on Tour in the past really popped at the Waste Management where he finished 22nd to end his streak of missed cuts, first time playing this event, crushes the ball off the tee, 12th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 7th in Driving Distance, 24th in Proximity 200+ yards, 117th in SG: ARG, 129th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 39th in Birdie+ Gained
Alex Smalley: 7500: +7000 – Pops in my model this week, MC and T6 finishes here the last two years, MC,75,MC,21,MC,44,30,61,16,65,MC,MC,2,47,9,25,MC,40,23,18 finishes in his last 20 events, 6th in Approach, 41st in SG: OTT, 31st in Driving Distance, 12th in Proximity 200+ yards, 93rd in SG: ARG, 120th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 85th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (30%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Driving Distance (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Very simple model for me this week
Bets
Outrights
1.5u Tony Finau (+950)
.4u Stephan Jaeger (+2500)
.4u Taylor Pendrith (+2500)
.2u Doug Ghim (+5500)
.2u Jhonnattan Vegas (+5500)
.2u Alex Smalley (+7000)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 