After what should’ve been a bye week in Mexico, the PGA Tour begins the Florida swing this week at PGA National Golf Club in Palm Beach with a new sponsor for the Cognizant Classic.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7147 yards, one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour every year (6 of the last 11 years, its been the hardest non-major of the year), Hole 10 which was previously a very long Par 4 has been lengthened 30 yards and turned into an easier Par 5, coastal track so wind could be a big factor, 28 water hazards so water is a big factor and in play on 15 holes and over 6400 balls have hit water here since 2007, only five holes on the course have not averaged over par for the history of the event (1,8,13 and the two original Par 5s), 67 bunkers, harder than average fairways to hit, thick rough, very difficult greens to hit (60% vs. tour average 65.9%), average sized but very fast and firm Bermuda greens, greens are elevated and contoured and false fronts, a lot of golfers will go mostly less than driver off the tee (one of lowest driving distance averages on tour at 273 yards vs. tour average 284 yards) but bombers have a slight advantage here
Tournament Notes
- This event was called The Honda Classic from 1982 to 2023, with Honda dropping as a sponsor this year
- This course has hosted this event since 2007
- No player since Jack in 1978 has defended his title here
- The Bear Trap (holes 15-17), which will probably decide the winner on Sunday and since 2007 the Bear Trap and holes 5-7 are the third and fourth most difficult three hole stretches on the PGA Tour
- 4 of the last 8 winners have a T12 finish here in one of the 2 years before winning
- 9 of the last 13 winners here have had a finish of T13 or better in the previous year here before the win
- 14 of the last 15 and all of the last twelve winners here had made the cut here before the win (so course history matters a bit)
- All of the last 14 winners here had played here before they won
- 8 of the last 8 winners here had a T16 or better on the west coast swing that season
- 5 of the last 7 winners here have had a T10 or better on the west coast swing that season (Straka in 2022 had a T15 and T16)
- 11 of the last 14 winners had at least one T10 that season
- Matt Jones, who shot a -9 in 2021 became the only first round leader to have ever won here
- 54 hole leader won here 10 of the last 17 years
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards (25.2%), 150-175 yards (22.9%)
Corollary Courses
- Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) – Russell Henley, Mark Wilson, Ernie Els, Justin Thomas all won both events (and Chris Kirk has had four T5s at Sony)
- Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) – lot of crossover success
- TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS) – 12 of the last 14 winners here had a T17 or better at Sawgrass
Field
144 golfers – Slightly better than this field typically is for this tournament (which is usually awful)
Defending Champion: Chris Kirk (-14 in playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Eric Cole (-14)
One and Done: Eric Cole
One and Done Considerations: Rory McIlroy, Eric Cole
Players
Rory McIlroy: 12200: +750 – His odds are garbage but he’s by far the best golfer in the field with a huge drop off after him, hasn’t played this event since 2018 but he’s a former winner here in 2012 with 59,MC,MC,2,1,70,40,13 finishes here, 24,66,1,2,22,7,16,4,4,3,6,1,7,2,9,7,7 finishes in his last 17 events (PGA and DP World tour), 26th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 1st in Good Drives Gained, 65th in Fairways Gained, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 55th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 66th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 55th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance, 56th in Sand Saves
Russell Henley: 10200: +2500 – Former winner here in 2014 with 3,8,20,24,43,MC,44,1,13 finishes here, 24,48,4,52,13,14,8,6,2,MC,35,19,14,16,16 finishes in his last 15 events, 21st in Approach, 47th in SG: OTT, 131st in Driving Distance, 14th in Good Drives Gained, 7th in Fairways Gained, 82nd in Par 3 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 69th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 82nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 6th in SG: ARG, 45th in Putting, 39th in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Bogey Avoidance, 50th in Sand Saves
Eric Cole: 9900: +2800 – What a shocker that for the billionth week in a row I’m on Eric Cole again, runner up in his debut here last year losing in the playoff, 10,49,14,MC,21,13,14,3,2,3,35,4,25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24 finishes in his last 22 events, 3rd in Approach, 77th in SG: OTT, 75th in Driving Distance, 25th in Good Drives Gained, 38th in Fairways Gained, 14th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 20th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 2nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 30th in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Bogey Avoidance, 104th in Sand Saves, this feels like his week finally comes to get his first win
J.T. Poston: 9800: +3300 – Going right back to him here as he’s playing great lately, 63,42,MC,35,36,27 finishes here, 10,MC,20,11,6,5,44,3,22,24,7,2,41,6,6 in his last 15 events, 16th in Approach, 89th in SG: OTT, 115th in Driving Distance, 72nd in Good Drives Gained, 54th in Fairways Gained, 38th in Par 3 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 73rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 14th in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 42nd in Bogey Avoidance, 14th in Sand Saves
Daniel Berger: 9200: +4000 – He’s shown good form since returning from his injury that kept him out of golf for almost two years with 28,MC,39 finishes in his three events this year, and his ball striking in Phoenix was solid, lost in a playoff here in his debut here in 2014, 4,4,36,29,MC,MC,2 finishes here, although his putting has been a struggle at times he’s only lost strokes putting here once, in 2022 he collapsed a big lead on Sunday here, 6th in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 106th in Driving Distance, 15th in Good Drives Gained, 21st in Fairways Gained, 25th in Par 3 Scoring, 48th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 113th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 45th in SG: ARG, 59th in Putting, 24th in Opportunities Gained, 43rd in Bogey Avoidance, 12th in Sand Saves
Sam Ryder: 5900: +17000 – Pops quite a bit in my model this week, 9,8,53 finishes his three times here, MC,MC,31,MC,62,13,10,64,28,51,14,31,38,7 finishes in his last 14 events, 2nd in Approach, 106th in SG: OTT, 134th in Driving Distance, 11th in Good Drives Gained, 63rd in Fairways Gained, 71st in Par 3 Scoring, 29th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 4th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 59th in SG: ARG, 120th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 68th in Bogey Avoidance, 102nd in Sand Saves, also taking the T5 here
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Good Drives Gained (10%)
Fairways Gained (0%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Bogey Avoidance (10%)
Sand Saves (0%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I have Fairways Gained and Sand Saves shown but not weighted in my model, pretty much to determine a slight edge between similar golfers
Bets
Outrights
1.5u Rory McIlroy (+750)
.5u Russell Henley (+2500)
.5u Eric Cole (+2800)
.4u J.T. Poston (+3300)
.3u Daniel Berger (+4000)
.1u Sam Ryder (+17000)
T5s
.1u Sam Ryder (+2500)
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