The PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill in Orlando this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a loaded small field elevated event!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7454 yds, plays a bit longer than the yardage, good mix of holes where bombers will have an advantage and others where accuracy will be more of an advantage with a 3 wood or less than driver, all four of the Par 3s are between 200-225 yards, Par 5s are reachable in 2 by a lot of golfers but bombers will obviously have an advantage, easy to hit wide tree lined fairways with strategically placed bunkers in the landing zones on almost every tee shot, 8 water traps that are in play on 10 of the holes, 84 bunkers, lot of doglegs, thick rough, trimmed rough around hazards which causes more trouble, lot of slopes and undulation on the fairways, guys will have to lay up so average drives are 6 yards shorter than tour average (~278 vs. 284 yards) and driving accuracy is 64% vs. tour average of 62%, almost 30% of approach shots come from beyond 200 yards (most of any course on tour, a huge outlier), lower than average GIR % (~60% vs. 65%), a bit larger than average greens, very difficult course especially when wind picks up which plays a pretty big factor, firm Bermuda greens and fairways, greens are very FAST with slopes and runoff areas especially on the front of the greens, greenside bunkers aren’t too penal, wind highly effects how this course plays and makes it much more difficult
Tournament Notes
- SG Approach is way more influential than ATG and OTT this week (2.7x more than SG: OTT and 4.2x more than SG: ATG, 2x more than SG: OTT and 2.5x more than SG: ATG for T5)
- Putting could be a little more influential here than usual but not enough for me to want to weigh as much as a key stat
- Elevated event with a $20M purse and the Riviera style cut, with T50 and ties after Friday
- 26 of the last 27 winners here had won on the PGA Tour or DP World Tour prior to their win here
- Veterans win here, with 32 of the last 33 winners here having at least 125 previous career PGA Tour or DP World Tour starts
- 12 of the last 17 winners had at least 3 previous career wins
- 25 of the last 28 winners had a T10 previously in an event the season that they won
- 6 of the last 9 winners had a T5 here at some point prior to their win
- 8 of the last 9 winners had a T17 here at some point prior to their win (Kitayama won in his first start here last year)
- 16 of the last 19 winners here finished T20 here at some point previously in their career
- 16 of the last 19 winners here had played this event at least 3 times prior in their career
- 11 of the last 13 winners here had played the previous season and made the cut (Scottie Scheffler in 2022, who didn’t play the prior year but had a T15 here in the season before that and Kurt Kitayama last year who won in his first start)
- Besides Kurt Kitayama last year who won in his first start, each of the previous 16 winners made the cut in their previous time playing this event
- 10 of the last 12 winners here were T55 on tour in proximity 200+ yards that year
- A lot of these trends could be skewed this week because there’s a ton of golfers in the field this year because its an elevated event that would normally not play this
- Internationals have won this event the last 5 of the last 8 years (Bryson, Scottie Scheffler and Kitayama are the ones that hadn’t)
- 16/32 players who finished T5 or better in the last four years here were internationals
- Only five Americans have won this event since 2006: Tiger (who’s won here 8 times in his career), Matt Every (twice), Bryson, Scheffler, and Kitayama
- In 6 of the last 9 years, the winner has shot better than -10 on the Par 5s for the week
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Par 5 scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (28.9%)
Corollary Courses
- Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day won both events in the last 6 years
- Conway Farms Golf Club (BMW Championship) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day both won both events on years when the BMW was held at Conway Farms
- Wentworth Club (BMW PGA Championship – European Tour) – Hatton, Molinari and Rory won there recently who all won here the last four years
Field
69 golfers – very strong elevated field strength, with all eligible players besides Tony Finau playing
Defending Champion: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
Runner Up Last Year: Harris English, Rory McIlroy (-8)
One and Done: Patrick Cantlay
One and Done Considerations: Scottie, Xander, Rory, Aberg, Cantlay
Players
Rory McIlroy: 10600: +1200 – Easily one of the two best players in the field (alongside Scottie), former winner here in 2018 with 2,13,10,5,6,1,4,27,11 finishes here, 21,24,66,1,2,22,7,16,4,4,3,6,1,7,2,9,7,7 finishes in his last 18 events (PGA and DP World tour), 27th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 3rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 34th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 31st in Par 5 scoring, 34th in SG: ARG, 35th in Putting, 10th in Opportunities gained, 6th in Birdies+ gained, 4th in Bogey avoidance, boosted his price on DraftKings
Xander Schauffele: 9800: +1600 – Top tier player in this field, 39 and 24 finishes here, 4,54,9,3,10,38,2,8,24,17,42,19,10,24,18,2,4,10,19 finishes in his last 19 events, 2nd in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 23rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 17th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 13th in Par 5 scoring, 28th in SG: ARG, 15th in Putting, 9th in Opportunities gained, 18th in Birdies+ gained, 3rd in Bogey avoidance
Ludvig Aberg: 9500: +2000 – His driving should map him out to be a great course fit, finished 24th his first time here last year, 19,2,9,30,47,1,10,13,2,14,64,MC,4 finishes in his last 13 events, 37th in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 21st in Proximity 200+ yards, 5th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 4th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 24th in Par 5 scoring, 21st in SG: ARG, 12th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities gained, 1st in Birdies+ gained, 5th in Bogey avoidance
Adam Scott: 7500: +5500 – He’s playing well this season and has some good finishes here, 19,8,20,5,41,7,33,MC,19,MC,9,29,8,5,31,39 finishes in his last 16 events, 31,26,MC,41,12,35,3,MC finishes here, 15th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 26th in Proximity 200+ yards, 20th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 58th in Par 5 scoring, 38th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 5th in Opportunities gained, 9th in Birdies+ gained, 32nd in Bogey avoidance
Tom Hope: 7100: +8000 – Pops in my model this week, MC,32,MC,15,26 finishes here, 28,8,17,6,56,17,MC,38,48,MC,13,21 finishes in his last twelve events, 5th in Approach, 54th in SG: OTT, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 41st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 49th in Par 4 scoring, 42nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 51st in Par 5 scoring, 65th in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities gained, 12th in Birdies+ gained, 11th in Bogey avoidance
Erik van Rooyen: 6600: +9000 – Coming off a runner up finish last week and playing well lately, 2,8,MC,20,25,52,22,1,23,16,30 finishes in his last eleven events, MC and 57 finishes here, 10th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 15th in Proximity 200+ yards, 51st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 17th in Par 4 scoring, 13th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 66th in SG: ARG, 28th in Putting, 13th in Opportunities gained, 7th in Birdies+ gained, 23rd in Bogey avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 scoring (5%)
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 scoring (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities gained (5%)
Birdies+ gained (5%)
Bogey avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I’ve done pretty good on this event in the past crushing top 5s and getting the runner up the last two years. Last year I had 6/7 make the cut with Rory’s runner up and two more T4s. In 2022, I had 4/5 making the cut with T2,T20,T26 finishes. In 2021, I hit 2 T10s with 4/5 making the cut. In 2020 hit the winner and 3 T5s in my 5 picks
- Make sure you shop lines this week and use the boosts that all the books offer
- With every winner on the PGA Tour this year coming from over 80:1 and the weaker strength of the tour leading to more variability in winners, I’m toning down my betting numbers to win ~5 units with a winner rather than my usual ~10+
Bets
Outrights
.5u Rory McIlroy (+1200)
.5u Xander Schauffele (+1600)
.3u Ludvig Aberg (+2000)
.1u Adam Scott (+5500)
.1u Tom Hoge (+8000)
.1u Erik van Rooyen (+9000)
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