It’s not the “fifth major” anymore, but the PGA Tour has it’s best field of the year this week at TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7189 yards, Pete Dye course so its a placement course, you need to miss in the right spots, three of the four Par 5s are reachable in two by most so guys will get eagle looks, the 12th hole is also a risk/reward driveable Par 4 for eagle looks, 5 of the Par 4s are 450-500 yards, 17 water hazards (over 24 acres), 88 bunkers, overseeded Bermuda grass, narrow tree-lined fairways with trouble in play on pretty much every tee shot, a lot of mounds and undulation on the fairways, lots of different doglegs (a Pete Dye staple), average fairway % (~63%), bit below average GIR % (~63% vs. tour average ~65%), less than driver course like most other Pete Dye courses (average driving distance: ~278 yards vs. tour average ~283 yards), the rough has been grown up the past few years about an extra inch to 3-3.5 inches (2-2.5 inches in previous years), the greens are listed as Poa now due to that at this time of the year the Bermuda hasn’t quite grown in yet to be classified as overseeded Bermuda greens, faster than average green speeds, very small and difficult multi-tier greens with a lot of undulation surrounded by water hazards and bunkers, most 3 putts of any non-major course on tour (only yearly course that beats it is Augusta)
Tournament Notes
- The “fifth major”…it wasn’t before and not even close anymore
- In 2019 this tournament was moved from May to March and the course plays a bit slower than it did later in the season and changes the direction of the prevailing winds on the course
- Course history here could be tough to gauge on because if a player has one or two bad holes that could screw them for the whole week (like Paul Casey in 2019)
- There is a ton of variance in the skill sets that could win this course, everyone could win here and bad putters are neutralized here
- With this being an elevated event now, the purse is the highest for any tour event ever at $25 million. The winner gets $4.5 mliion, second gets $2.7 million, the entire top 5 gets at least a million each and the T41 all make six figures
- 11 of the last 13 winners have had a T5 prior to their win in the same calendar year that they won
- 15 of the last 16 winners here had a T23 here at some point prior to their win, with Scottie Scheffler last year being the only one (his best finish prior was 55)
- All but one of the last 39 winners here played this event at least once previously
- The last 25 winners here made the cut in their previous start before their win
- 18 of the last 20 winners ranked in the T45 of the OWGR
- 10 of the last 12 winners ranking in the T45 in SG:ARG for the year leading up to their win
- 17 of the last 19 winners ranked T35 in approach for the year leading up to their win
- 11 of the last 13 winners had a T5 or better in a prior event that season on the year they won
- 11 of the last 12 winners finished T22 or better in their previous start before the win
- 10 of the last 12 winners had a T4 or better in a prior event that season on the year they won
- The last seven winners have had a T25 in their last PGA Tour start prior to their win
- In 2021, seven of the 15 golfers that came T10 here finished Top 20 for the year in bogie avoidance
- Usually elite players (Top 10/Top 20 in the world) win this tournament but there definitely are outliers like when Si Woo Kim won
- No defending champ has ever gone back to back here
- SG Approach is over 2.5x more important than SG: OTT and SG: ATG (0.43 per round) to T10 finishes over the last 7 years
- Every winner here since 2010 (besides Si WOOOO Kim and JT in 2021) had either a T25 the week before or a T10 in their previous event played (Si Woo was 22nd, JT was 15th)
- 13 of the last 16 winners were T60 in Scrambling for the season that they won (scrambling is a flawed stat vs. SG: ARG)
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4s Gained (450-500 yards), Bogie Avoidance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (22.1%)
Corollary Courses
- Pete Dye courses: TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (The American Express), Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
- PGA National (Honda Classic) – similar Florida conditions at this time of the year with overseeded Bermuda
- Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – 5 last 10 champs at the Wyndham also won THE PLAYERS (Davis Love III, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia), same fast greens, Bermuda grass and lots of laying up off the tee on a pretty short course
Field
144 golfers – the best non-major field of the year
Last Year’s Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
Runner Up Last Year: Tyrrell Hatton (-12)
One and Done: Tom Hoge
One and Done Considerations: Scottie, Hovland, Morikawa, Rory, Xander, Hoge
Players
Xander Schauffele: 11300: +2300 – I like his price this week, 19,MC,MC,MC,2 finishes here, 25,4,54,9,3,10,38,2,8,24,17,42,19,10,24,18,2,4,10,19 finishes in his last 20 events, 7th in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 84th in Fairways Gained, 9th in Proximity 200+ yards, 44th in Par 3 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 44th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 13th in Par 5 Scoring, 52nd in SG: ARG, 48th in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdies+ Gained, 7th in Bogey Avoidance
Viktor Hovland: 10100: +2500 – Way too cheap at this price, 3,9,MC finishes here, 36,19,58,22,1,1,13,13,25,29,19,1,16,2 finishes in his last 14 events, 21st in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 30th in Fairways Gained, 29th in Proximity 200+ yards, 43rd in Par 3 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 66th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 22nd in Par 5 Scoring, 111th in SG: ARG, 17th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdies+ Gained, 42nd in Bogey Avoidance
Collin Morikawa: 9400: +2800 – Playing well and maps out nicely at the right price, 13,MC,14 finishes here, MC,19,14,MC,5,1,6,25,13,MC,2,MC,14,29,26 finishes in his last 15 events, 8th in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 9th in Fairways Gained, 62nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 8th in Par 3 Scoring, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 70th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 28th in Par 5 Scoring, 61st in SG: ARG, 92nd in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Birdies+ Gained, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance
Ludvig Aberg: 9300: +3500 – He has the talent to win anywhere, first time playing this event, 25,19,2,9,30,47,1,10,13,2,14,64,MC,4 finishes in his last 15 events, 47th in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 75th in Fairways Gained, 33rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 24th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 34th in Par 5 Scoring, 40th in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdies+ Gained, 12th in Bogey Avoidance
Tom Hoge: 7800: +7500 – Last year he shot a 62 here on Saturday, second in my model, 3,33,22,30,72 finishes here, 12,28,8,17,6,56,17,MC,38,48,MC,13,21 finishes in his last 13 events, 1st in Approach, 91st in SG: OTT, 96th in Fairways Gained, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring, 71st in Par 4 Scoring, 82nd in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 62nd in Par 5 Scoring, 133rd in SG: ARG, 58th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 32nd in Birdies+ Gained, 17th in Bogey Avoidance
Doug Ghim: 6800: +10000 – Playing much better lately with 16,8,12,13 finishes in his last four events after his string of missed cuts, MC,6,29 finishes here the last three years, 13th in Approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 15th in Fairways Gained, 70th in Proximity 200+ yards, 118th in Par 3 Scoring, 47th in Par 4 Scoring, 81st in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 54th in SG: ARG, 106th in Putting, 24th in Opportunities Gained, 68th in Birdies+ Gained, 8th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking the T7 each way
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Fairways Gained (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdies+ Gained (5%)
Bogey Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Stack golfers starting on the 1st hole in Showdown slates on DraftKings for easier birdie streaks
- 11 of the last 12 first round leaders here started in the AM wave
Bets
Outrights
.5u Xander Schauffele (+2300)
.4u Viktor Hovland (+2500)
.4u Collin Morikawa (+2800)
.3u Ludvig Aberg (+3500)
.2u Tom Hoge (+7500)
.1u Doug Ghim (+10000)
T7 Each Way
.1u Doug Ghim (+2000)
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