Last week The PLAYERS was great, although disappointing for me with Xander’s second place. This week the PGA Tour finishes the Florida swing with the Vaspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook in Tampa.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7340 yards, five Par 3s and four Par 5s, averages to typically play as a top five most difficult course on tour, adjusted to par this actually is a deceptively long course, typically windy event (average ~15 mph), plotters course where precision and placement is more important than distance, overseeded Bermuda grass, less than driver course on a majority of holes, four of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, all the Par 5s are longer than 550 yards, seven of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yards, average fairways to hit, severe doglegs, tight tree lined fairways which get extremely narrow the farther from the tee box especially around the 300 yard mark so a lot of golfers will go less than driver on a majority of holes and the average driving distance is in the lowest six on Tour (272 yards vs. tour average 284 yards), lot of changes in elevation, 74 bunkers, eight water hazards on nine holes, harder than average greens to hit (~61% vs. tour average ~66%), firm smaller POA overseeded greens with average speeds with lots of back to front slopes, lowest birdie+ % of any course on tour, second most 3 putts inside 5 feet since 2011 (behind Riviera), the rough got grown out to 3.75-4 inches this year from 3 inches in previous years, weather plays a pretty significant factor here
Tournament Notes
- The Snake Pit (holes 16-18) is one of the hardest 3 hole stretches on tour with 16 as one of the top 10 hardest holes on tour, no winner has ever played it better than even par
- 14 of the last 16 winners here had a T10 that season leading up to their victory (Taylor Moore last year had a T11)
- 14 of the last 16 winners played this event at least twice before winning
- 11 of the last 13 winners here finished T45 or better in their last start before the Valspar
- 11 of the last 16 winners were not first time winners on the PGA Tour
- Each of the 12 winners prior to Taylor Moore last year were T55 or better in bogie avoidance for the year leading up to their win
- 9 of the last 13 winners were T40 or better in approach for the year leading up to their win
- 11 of the last 16 winners were T45 or better in Par 5 scoring for the year leading up to their win
- 3 of the last 6 winners (over the last 7 years) here had a MC at this event the year prior to winning, so don’t put as much stock into some MCs here since its a very hard course
- Cut line has only been under par once here since 2003
Key Stats
Approach, SG: ARG, Bogie Avoidance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards (23.7%), 200+ yards (23.2%), 150-175 yards (20.6%)
Field
156 golfers – Field strength isn’t great
Defending Champion: Taylor Moore (-10)
Runner Up Last Year: Adam Schenk (-9)
One and Done: Sam Burns
One and Done Considerations: Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns
Players
Sam Burns: 10900: +1400 – Former winner here when he went back to back in 2021 and 2022 (I hit the winner in 2022) with elite course history with 6,1,1,30,12 finishes here, 45,30,10,3,10,6,33,9,15,52,14 finishes in his last eleven events, 39th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 27th in Good Drives Gained, 9th in Par 3 scoring, 45th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 70th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 20th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 26th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 67th in Proximity 200+ yards, 118th in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting, 3rd in Bogie avoidance
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 8800: +4000 – Pops in my model this week and besides his off the tee play maps out really well for this course, finished 62nd his first time here last year, 13,44,MC,24,28,20,MC,2,56,8 finishes in his last ten events, 12th in Approach, 118th in SG: OTT, 108th in Good Drives Gained, 27th in Par 3 scoring, 40th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 56th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 41st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 27th in Proximity 200+ yards, 71st in SG: ARG, 9th in Putting, 23rd in Bogie avoidance
Doug Ghim: 8400: +4000 – He’s playing really solid golf again the last several weeks, 27 and MC finishes his two times here, 16,16,8,12,13 finishes in his last five events after this long string of missed cuts, 8th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 33rd in Good Drives Gained, 92nd in Par 3 scoring, 112th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 38th in Par 4 scoring, 107th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 18th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 31st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 87th in Proximity 200+ yards, 23rd in SG: ARG, 82nd in Putting, 4th in Bogie avoidance
Sam Ryder: 7300: +11000 – Third in my model this week, he’s playing good golf and I could see him have success here, 16,21,MC,MC,31,MC,62,12,10,64,28,51,14,31,38,7 finishes in his last 16 events, 19,MC,MC,MC,68 finishes here, 4th in Approach, 106th in SG: OTT, 16th in Good Drives Gained, 95th in Par 3 scoring, 78th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 30th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 5th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 2nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 147th in Proximity 200+ yards, 69th in SG: ARG, 56th in Putting, 52nd in Bogie avoidance, also taking the T5
Lucas Glover: 7300: +6000 – He was talented to win twice late last season in a row and could pop here, MC,30,35,35,58,MC,29,45,59,18,22,1,1,MC,5,6,4 finishes in his last 17 events, 36,48,13,74,18,MC,24,MC finishes here, 6th in Approach, 62nd in SG: OTT, 24th in Good Drives Gained, 87th in Par 3 scoring, 35th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 58th in Par 4 scoring, 45th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 1st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 35th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 29th in Proximity 200+ yards, 26th in SG: ARG, 135th in Putting, 76th in Bogie avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Par 3 scoring (5%)
Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Bogie avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I cashed in on Sam Burns at +2200 here in 2022 and last year my favorite pick of Tommy Fleetwood finished T3.
- I could easily see Xander win this tournament, coming off his second place finish last week. He’s the best player in the field and by far first in my model but there’s no way he’s worth betting on at +650.
- I’m going with smaller bets this week
Bets
Outrights
.7u Sam Burns (+1400)
.3u Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+4000)
.3u Doug Ghim (+4000)
.2u Lucas Glover (+6000)
.1u Sam Ryder (+11000)
T5
.1u Sam Ryder (+1800)
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