“A tradition unlike any other”
It’s finally here! The best golf week of the year as all of the best golfers in the world, on both tours, meet at Augusta for “a tradition unlike any other”, the first major of the year, The Masters!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7510 yards (plays a bit longer) which was lengthened last season with a big change to Hole 13’s tee box moving it back 35 yards, lush tree lined fairways with a lot of undulation which leads to the course playing longer than it is with above average width with bunkers in the landing areas, 41 bunkers, 6 water hazards, rye grass, almost no rough, soft pine straw that you could hit out of as long as you don’t have a tree in the way, six of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, 13/14 par 4’s: you’re hitting driver, two years ago the 11th hole got lengthened by 15 yards and a bunch of rough got removed from the course, lots of changes in elevation on the course, experience here matters, first timers don’t win here, bombers have an advantage, right to left draw ball flight works best here (comes naturally for leftys, Spieth draws the ball well also), easy to hit fairways (~68% vs. ~61% tour average), hard to hit greens vs. tour average (~60% vs. ~66%), average 65 square foot firm and FAST multi-tiered bent grass greens with a ton of undulation, greens are average to above average in size but that is misleading since most greens slope heavily from back to front with difficult landing areas, tons of slope and undulation on very fast greens, Augusta has SubAir greens and fairways with a ton of drainage on the course, most greens are elevated and have large run offs and collection areas or bunkers around them that are tough to get up and down from, rain doesn’t effect it and isn’t much of a factor here like it usually is on other courses on tour even when there is a ton of rain
Tournament Notes
- Course history is most predictive at Augusta, more than any other course on tour by a significant margin
- No winner has come from outside 50:1 odds in the last eleven years
- Since 2012, Bubba (#18 in the OWGR that year) was the lowest ranked player to win The Masters. Even Danny Willett who was 100:1 in 2016 when he won, was ranked 12th in the World
- 22 of the last 24 winners were ranking in the Top 30 in OWGR (this trend could be off now because LIV Golfers haven’t gotten OWGR points since the British Open in 2022 and those rankings are now completely meaningless)
- The last time a first timer won the Masters was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979
- Except for Patrick Reed in 2018, the past 26 champions made the cut at The Masters the previous year
- 23 of the last 26 winners finished 38th or better at the Masters the year before they won
- 14 of the last 16 winners had finished 22nd or higher in a previous Masters Tournament
- 13 of the last 14 winners had at least a T8 in at least one of their seven events prior to their win at The Masters
- Besides Hideki in 2021, the prior ten Masters winners have had a win or 2 Top 5s in their five events leading up to Augusta, and so did Rahm and Scheffler the last two years
- Besides Hideki in 2019 who only had one T15, every other winner of the last twelve years had at least two T15 finishes in their three tournaments leading into The Masters
- 12 of the last 14 winners had a T35 or better in their last start prior to The Masters (Rahm last year had a T39 but three wins and five T7s in his five events before that T39)
- 13 of the last 15 winners had at least 4 previous career wins
- 13 of the last 15 winners had won a tournament on U.S. soil within the two years leading up to their Masters win
- 12 of the last 14 winners had a T6 in a major within the two years leading up to their Masters win
- No winner has repeated since Tiger in 2002 (along with Nick Faldo in 1990 and Jack in 1966)
- Jack was oldest player to ever win the Masters, at 46 years old
- 18 of the last 21 winners were aged 27 or older
- Besides Hideki in 2021 and Rahm technically last year (although he was incredible T2G all that season besides API the week prior), all the rest of the last eleven winners besides him gained minimum of 13.4 strokes T2G in their two prior events leading up to their victory at Augusta
- Each of the last 14 winners were inside the Top 30 in SG: T2G leading up to The Masters
- Each of the last twelve winners had gained at least 18 strokes T2G in their four events prior to The Masters. The eleven golfers that fit that trend are: Scheffler, Matsuyama, Schauffele, Lowry, Conners, Si Woo Kim, McIlroy, Cam Young, Aberg, Eckroat, and Bhatia
- 9 of the last 11 winners were inside the Top 7 in SG: T2G leading up to The Masters
- 7 of the last 9 winners ranked Top 5 the week they won in Approach
- 12 of the last 14 winners ranked inside the T40 in Par 5 Scoring for the year they won
- The last six winners have been 60 under par on the Par 5s, so scoring on those is very important
- Bad putting is neutralized here because everyone will struggle on these greens, with 14 of the last 16 winners ranking outside the T50 in putting for the year they won
- 14 of the last 15 winners ranked inside the T50 for the season in Driving Distance in the year leading up to their Masters win
- Each of the last eleven winners had gained at least 0.25 strokes ARG in the 16 rounds prior to their Masters win
- Twelve of the top 13 in Good Drives Gained at The Masters last season finished T20
- The last six winners here were within four shots of the lead after Thursday (Rahm last season and DJ in the November edition held a share of the Day 1 lead)
- In the last seven years, the defending champion has only finished inside the T30 twice
- There isn’t publicly available specific strokes gained data for Augusta
Key Stats
SG: Approach, SG: OTT, Par 5 Scoring
Main proximity distance range: 175-200 yards (but a lot of elevation changes here make that not as accurate as other courses)
Corollary Courses
- Emirates Golf Club (Omega Dubai Desert Challenge) – Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia won this and the Masters in the same year
- Riviera CC (Genesis Open) – lot of crossover success and the course maps out similar, with a lot of lefty success there as well
- Quail Hallow Club (Wells Fargo Championship)
- Correlated courses are not as much of a factor that I’ll be looking at with so much course history at Augusta
Field
87 golfers with all the stars leading both the PGA Tour and the LIV Golf
Smallest field for a major and you could cut out a good 20-30 players (Sr. past champs etc.) that just aren’t gonna win – It doesn’t matter that Bernhard Langer is the #1 Sr. in the world…he’s not winning the fucking Masters
Cut: Top 50 and ties (no longer anyone within 10 strokes of the lead like its been in the past, that hasn’t been the case for the last 4 seasons)
Defending Champion: Jon Rahm (-12)
Runner Up Last Year: Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson (-8)
One and Done: Brooks Koepka
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Brooks, Hideki, Rahm
Players
Brooks Koepka: 10200: +2200 – Five time major winner with great course history here and 17 finishes of T7 or better in major championships, his stats on LIV or even the PGA Tour before he left don’t matter because he just doesn’t care…just like professional golf in general now…it’s all about the majors, 2,MC,MC,7,2,11,21,33 finishes here, T45,28,T12,T12,T5 finishes in his five LIV events this season, stats are skewed since LIV events don’t have SG data, 36th in Approach, 40th in SG: OTT, 75th in Good Drives Gained, 17th in Driving Distance, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 25th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 22nd in Par 5 Scoring, 3rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 33rd in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 69th in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Bogie Avoidance, fourth highest chance of winning according to the simulator, 16.5% projected ownership on DraftKings
Will Zalatoris: 9200: +4500 – Has played really well since returning from injury this year, in his nine major championships he has six T10s and only one MC, made the most combined birdies of anyone here in 2021 and 2022, has two T5 finishes in elevated events this year, elite ballstriking, 6 and 2 finishes his two times here in 2022 and his debut in 2021, 74,MC,4,2,13,34,MC finishes since returning from injury this year, 12th in Approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 12th in Good Drives Gained, 24th in Driving Distance, 70th in Par 4 Scoring, 77th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 65th in SG: ARG, 80th in Putting, 35th in Opportunities Gained, 37th in Bogie Avoidance, 13.8% projected ownership on DraftKings
Hideki Matsuyama: 9000: +2200 – My favorite pick this week behind Brooks, former winner here in 2021, his driving was terrible last year and he still didn’t finish worse than T35 at a major last year, 16,14,13,32,19,11,7,5,MC,54,27 finishes here, has played fantastic lately coming into this week on three straight T10s and a win with 7,6,12,1,22,71,13,30,58,51,16 finishes in his last eleven events, 15th in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 25th in Good Drives Gained, 45th in Driving Distance, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 25th in Par 5 Scoring, 30th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 82nd in Putting, 30th in Opportunities Gained, 19th in Bogie Avoidance, 22.6% projected ownership on DraftKings
Cameron Smith: 8900: +5500 – His driving isn’t great but his short game and iron play is elite, former major winner having won The Open (and THE PLAYERS) before he joined LIV when he was the #2 player in the OWGR and has won on LIV three times since joining, WD,2,T41,T15,T8 finishes on LIV this season, 34,3,10,2,51,5,55 finishes here, stats are skewed since LIV events don’t have SG data, 3rd in Approach, 80th in SG: OTT, 70th in Good Drives Gained, 76th in Driving Distance, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 35th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 14th in Par 5 Scoring, 25th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 32nd in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Bogie Avoidance, 12.4% projected ownership on DraftKings
Shane Lowry: 8000: +6000 – Seems to be a dark horse chalk pick for everyone this week but I like him, former major winner, he has an elite T2G game but his putting is awful, one of three players in the field with Top 25 finishes each of the past three years here and he comes in averaging +5.4 on approach over his past three starts, 16,3,21,25,MC,MC,39,MC finishes here, 19,3,4,60,25,MC,12,19,20,43,16,12 finishes in his last 14 events, 6th in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 10th in Good Drives Gained, 62nd in Driving Distance, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 15th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 10th in Par 5 Scoring, 49th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 30th in SG: ARG, 53rd in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 52nd in Bogie Avoidance, 20.2% projected ownership on DraftKings
Sahith Theegala: 7700: +5500 – Has creativity which should help him here, playing solid golf this year with three T10s this season including THE PLAYERS and Bay Hill (both elevated events) and got his first win on the PGA Tour in the fall swing season, T9 finish in his debut here last year, 28,9,6,37,5,20,64,MC,2,MC,19,1,15,13 finishes in his last 14 events, 30th in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 33rd in Good Drives Gained, 28th in Driving Distance, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 37th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 15th in Par 5 Scoring, 51st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 34th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 39th in Opportunities Gained, 26th in Bogie Avoidance, 20.6% projected ownership on DraftKings
Akshay Bhatia: 7200: +10000 – Got into this event with his playoff win last week at the Valero where he went wire to wire, first time playing this event and although I don’t think he wins I can see him having a good finish in his Augusta debut, lefty which maps out nicely for this course and his game fits this course great, popped right up towards the top of my model when he won, 1,11,17,MC,MC,MC,13,MC,13,14,38,20,10,21 finishes in his last 14 events, 16th in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 11th in Good Drives Gained, 48th in Driving Distance, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 17th in Par 5 Scoring, 40th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 17th in SG: ARG, 39th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Bogie Avoidance, 7.4% projected ownership on DraftKings, also taking him as the top debutant and his T5
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Note: Stats for LIV golfers will be inconsistent since we don’t have any SG data for their events
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- May want to leave salary cap on the table
- Need to get 6/6 in the cut at a minimum to cash, need to hit 6 T10s with the winner to win big money
- Making cuts here should not be a factor in lineup construction and will almost play closer to a no cut event on DK
- Need scoring points as well as placing points
- Prices vary from book to book so as usual, make sure you shop them across every book you have available
- In One & Done contests, the elite LIV guys that you can’t use for anything other than majors should get locked in here (Brooks and Rahm)
Bets
Outrights
1u Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)
1u Brooks Koepka (+2200)
.3u Will Zalatoris (+4500)
.2u Cameron Smith (+5500)
.2u Sahith Theegala (+5500)
.2u Shane Lowry (+6000)
.1u Akshay Bhatia (+10000)
T5s (including ties)
.2u Akshay Bhatia (+2000)
Top Debutant
.4u Akshay Bhatia (+850)
DraftKings DFS Lineup
Zalatoris/Matsuyama/Smith/Lowry/Theegala/Bhatia
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