Following The Masters, this week the PGA Tour heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina for the RBC Heritage, an elevated event with a loaded field!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7099 yards (short for a PGA course), Pete Dye designed course, four Par 3s are all between 192-200 yards, three Par 5s (two are reachable by most), thick tight tree lined course that really rewards driving accuracy and positioning off the tee (has to target specific parts of the fairway to set up approach shots), plotters course that handcuffs bombers a bit, overhanging trees so accuracy is important everywhere on the course, Bermuda fairways, easier than average fairways to hit (~66% vs. ~62% tour average), less than driver course with shortest drives on tour with a lot of forced layups (269 yards vs. tour average 284 yards), driving distance does not matter here, bunkers and water hazards are in play if you miss wildly off the tee, rough has been grown up a bit more the last few years, very tough greens to hit (~58% vs. ~66% tour average) which have some of the lowest GIR% on tour, smallest greens on tour, well-guarded Bermuda greens, slower than average green speeds with not many slopes or undulations but with some bowl shaped greens with runoffs, bunkers and overhanging trees guarding most greens and water around a few greens as well, swirling wind could play a big factor
Tournament Notes
- Course history seems to be more important than current form here
- SG: Approach here is twice as important as ARG and OTT on T10 finishes and about 3x as important on T5 finishes
- SG: ARG has been more important here than SG: OTT
- Before 2019, the last 6 winners prior have been trailing by at least 3 strokes after 54 holes (CT Pan trailed 2 strokes in 2019 going into the final round, Webb Simpson was in a 4 way tie for first in 2020, in 2021 Stewart Cink set a 54 hole tournament record and was in solo 1st). In 2022, Spieth continued the trend, 3 strokes back of the 54 hole lead. Last year Fitzpatrick was the 54 hole leader.
- Only six 54 hole leaders have won in the last 13 years (Webb in 2020 was in a 4 way tie for T1 after 54 holes, with Ancer, Hatton, Palmer, and Cink)
- In 2019, 11 of the T15 in approach came T16 or better. In 2020, 7 of the T11 in approach came T8 or better. In 2021, 8 of the T10 in approach came T13 or better. Of the nine golfers that finished T3 or better in 2022, all besides Kuchar gained on approach, including the top 3 approach leaders for the week. Last year, five of the T6 in approach finished T15 or better.
Key Stats
Approach, SG: ARG, Proximity 175-200 yards, Proximity 150-175 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards (25%), 150-175 yards (22.7%)
Corollary Courses
Pete Dye courses: TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (CareerBuilder Challenge)
Field
69 golfers – Signature elevated event with most of the best players on the PGA Tour in the field, a stronger field than this event has had most years
Defending Champion: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Jordan Spieth (-17)
One and Done: Tommy Fleetwood
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Xander, Aberg, Morikawa, Cantlay, Fleetwood
Players
Ludvig Aberg: 10400: +1800 – One of the top players in the field, first time playing this event like most others this season where he’s had success, I think he maps out great for this course, 2,14,8,25,19,2,9,30,47,1,10,13,2,14 finishes in his last 14 events coming off his second place finish at The Masters last week, 12th in Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 26th in Good drives, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 49th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 22nd in Par 5 scoring, 30th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 3rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 44th in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities gained, 7th in Birdie+ gained, used a boost on Caesars to get him a reasonable price
Cameron Young: 8700: +3000 – Finished 51 and 3rd here the last two years, 9,2,54,36,4,16,8,70,33,38 finishes in his last ten events, 22nd in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 15th in Good drives, 25th in Par 4 scoring, 18th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 20th in Par 5 scoring, 2nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 54th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 60th in SG: ARG, 46th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities gained, 4th in Birdie+ gained
Corey Conners: 8300: +5500 – 31,12,4,21,MC,MC,MC finishes here since 2015, 38,13,18,41,24,28,31,57,33,44,26,10,6,52,19,9 finishes in his last 16 events, 3rd in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 1st in Good drives, 46th in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 23rd in Par 5 scoring, 41st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 12th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 58th in SG: ARG, 68th in Putting, 19th in Opportunities gained, 38th in Birdie+ gained
Akshay Bhatia: 7700: +6000 – Missed the cut his first time here last year, has already won this season with 3,1,11,17,MC,MC,MC,13,MC,13,14,38,20,10,21 finishes in his last 15 events, 15th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 8th in Good drives, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 28th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 15th in Par 5 scoring, 31st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 2nd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 13th in SG: ARG, 34th in Putting, 13th in Opportunities gained, 17th in Birdie+ gained
Chris Kirk: 7700: +6500 – Playing well lately with 16,26,44,28,MC,26,47,18,1,28 finishes in his last ten events, 41,MC,7,MC,55,MC,23,69,27,30,MC finishes here, 18th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 27th in Good drives, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 17th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 53rd in Par 5 scoring, 34th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 8th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 23rd in SG: ARG, 59th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities gained, 25th in Birdie+ gained
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 7600: +8000 – 19,33,28 finishes in his three times here, 25,9,13,44,MC,24,28,20,MC,2,56,6 finishes in his last twelve events, 13th in Approach, 58th in SG: OTT, 57th in Good drives, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 49th in Par 5 scoring, 14th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 36th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 40th in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities gained, 34th in Birdie+ gained
Austin Eckroat: 6400: +12500 – Pops pretty high up in my model this week, first time playing this event, MC,33,45,36,1,38,MC,37,25,42,8,23 finishes in his last twelve events, 8th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 9th in Good drives, 37th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 32nd in Par 5 scoring, 1st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 13th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 42nd in SG: ARG, 51st in Putting, 9th in Opportunities gained, 20th in Birdie+ gained, also taking him T6 each way
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good drives (5%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards (5%)
Par 5 scoring (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities gained (10%)
Birdie+ gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- My biggest gambling win ever (on any sport) came here in 2017 when Wes Bryan won and I came in 7th in the big $33 GPP on DraftKings on Easter Sunday
- Generally lower 6/6 percentage on DK here
- A lot of winners here move up the leaderboard on Sunday, so look at live betting opportunities
- I had Spieth here last year, who lost in a playoff to Fitz
Bets
Outrights
.5u Ludvig Aberg (+1800)
.2u Cameron Young (+3000)
.1u Corey Conners (+5500)
.1u Akshay Bhatia (+6000)
.1u Chris Kirk (+6500)
.1u Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+8000)
.1u Austin Eckroat (+12500)
T6 Each Way
.1u Austin Eckroat (+2500)
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