The playoffs begin on Saturday evening with the #2 seed in the Metro Division Carolina Hurricanes facing the #3 seed New York Islanders. I don’t think this is a great matchup. These teams met in the first round last season as well, with the Canes winning in six games last year.

Although the Canes were the far better team between them this season, they split their four games this year all in road wins, both going 2-1-1. The Hurricanes won the first matchup 4-3 in overtime on Long Island on November 4th, the Isles answered back in overtime in Raleigh with a 5-4 win on November 30th, then won again 5-4 in regulation December 23rd, before the Canes ended the regular season series with a 4-1 win on the road on March 19th. 

The Hurricanes had a really good season this year, very comfortably finishing the regular season in second place in the Metro with a 52-23-7 record, three points behind the Rangers for the President’s Trophy and 17 points ahead of the Islanders. They finished the regular season with a 16-4-1 record in their last 21 games, with a 6-3 loss in Columbus in their last game of the season on Tuesday where they rested eight of their starters.

Carolina was very successful on both ends of the ice this year. They’ve scored an average of 3.38 goals per game, the eighth-most in the NHL, on an average of 33.3 shots per game. They’ve generated the sixth-most expected goals (3.44 per game) and the ninth-most high-danger shots in the league. The Canes scored on 26.9% of their power play opportunities, the second most in the NHL. Sebastian Aho lead them in scoring this year with 89 points, 36 goals, and 53 assists. They made a huge addition to their offense at the trade deadline, adding Jake Guentzel from the Penguins.

Defensively the Hurricanes were even better this year, one of the best teams in the league on the back end. They allowed just the fourth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.57 goals per game on an average of 25.6 shots allowed per game, the lowest in the league. They’ve given up the fewest expected goals (2.65 per game) and the fifth-fewest high-danger shots. Carolina has the best penalty kill in the NHL this year, killing off 86.4% of their penalties. Veteran Frederik Andersen is projected to be their starter this season. This year, while dealing with injuries, he went 13-2 with a 1.84 GAA, a .932 save percentage, and three shutouts. His young backup Pyotr Kochetkov had a solid year, with a 23-13-4 record, a 2.33 GAA (the second best in the NHL), a .911 save percentage, and four shutouts.

The Islanders have had their up and downs this season, going 39-26-16 this year. They fired head coach Lane Lambert in January after less than two seasons, and Lou made a huge splash, hiring Patrick Roy as their new head coach. The Isles went on hot and cold runs this season, with lousy losing streaks and a few solid winning streaks. They made the playoffs, going 8-0-1 in their last nine games to secure third place in the Metro in the midst of a crazy playoff race in the division to end the year.

Statistically the Islanders were pretty terrible on both ends of the ice all year and made the playoffs with grinding out games in honestly, a pretty weak division. They especially struggled offensively this season, scoring the eleventh-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of only 2.99 goals per game on an average of 30.1 shots per game. They’ve generated the ninth-fewest expected goals (2.88 per game) and the 15th-fewest high-danger shots in the league. The Isles have scored on 20.3% of their power play chances, the 14th-fewest in the NHL. They’re led in scoring this season by Mathew Barzal (80 points), Brock Nelson (34 goals), and Noah Dobson (60 assists).

The Isles have been below average defensively this year, allowing an average of 3.15 goals per game, the 15th-most in the NHL, on an average of 32.7 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the twelfth-most expected goals (3.18 per game) and the eighth-most high-danger shots. New York had the worst penalty kill in the NHL this season, killing off just 71.5% of their penalties. The Islanders do have a solid goaltending tandem in Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin. Varlamov is confirmed as the Game 1 starter in goal. This season he went 14-8-4 with a 2.60 GAA, a .918 save percentage, and three shutouts. Sorokin got more starts this year, finishing the regular season 25-19-12 with a 3.01 GAA, a .909 save percentage, and two shutouts.

In no way do I think the Hurricanes are a fun team to watch, but they’re VERY good. especially defensively, and even though I hate them, they’re my pick to go to win the East and go to the Stanley Cup Finals and I think have a great chance to lift the Cup. For good reason they’re the favorites to win it at +650. I think there is so much parity in the playoffs this year with a bunch of teams that can win it, but I think they’re still worth betting, which I’ll take for 3 units.

The Islanders have been terrible this year and just have been going on hot runs to even get to the playoffs. I don’t see them sustaining any type of success against Carolina. I expect this series to be over very quick, likely with the Canes winning it in five games, or maybe even sweeping this series. Obviously betting Carolina to win the series is expensive at -340. Can’t bet that. Instead what I’ll take here is 4 units on the Canes to win it in six games or less along with the exact results of the sweep for half a unit and five games for a unit.

In Game 1, since I love the Canes to win this series, I obviously like them to win Game 1 at home. The price on this game is pretty expensive too at -230. I’ll take the Canes to win it in regulation for 2 units.

I’d expect the games in this series to trend under. The Hurricanes with their spectacular defense trended under all year, going 46-33-3 on the under. The Isles felt like an under team all year, but actually trended over this year going 42-35-5. I’d lean Game 1 goes under, but not enough to bet it at 5.5. I’ll stay off the total at least for Game 1 and maybe Game 2 and then evaluate from there.

Futures

3u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+650)

Series Bets

4u Hurricanes in six games or less (-155)

1u Hurricanes in five games (+300)

.5u Hurricanes in four games (+540)

Game 1 Bets

2u Hurricanes in regulation (-125)

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