In the Atlantic Division we have an awesome original six matchup for the first round with the #2 seed Bruins facing the #3 seed Maple Leafs. The Leafs haven’t beat the Bruins in the playoffs since 1959. 

Boston swept the season series between these teams this year, winning 3-2 in a shootout on November 2nd at home, 4-3 in overtime in Toronto on December 2nd, 4-1 on the road on March 4th, and then 4-1 at home three days later.

Last year in the regular season the Bruins set records for the best year in NHL history, but it didn’t end any way they wanted, as the President’s Trophy champs blew a 3-1 series lead and went on to lose in OT of Game 7 to the eventual Eastern Conference Champion Panthers. I thought they’d take a significant downturn this season but really didn’t, finishing the year a point out from Florida for first in the Atlantic with a 47-20-15 record. They didn’t finish the year great, going 6-6 in their last twelve games.

Statistically the Bruins were around league average offensively this year, averaging 3.21 goals per game, 13th-most in the NHL, on an average of just 29.2 shots per game. They’ve generated the 15th-most expected goals (3.06 per game) and the eleventh-most high-danger shots in the league. Boston scored on 22.2% of their power play chances this year, also around league average. David Pastrnak had a hell of a year, leading the B’s with 110 points, 47 goals, and 63 assists.

Boston was very good defensively this year. They allowed an average of just 2.7 goals per game, the fifth fewest in the NHL, on an average of 30.5 shots per game. They’ve given up the 15th-fewest expected goals (3.03 per game) and the twelfth-most high-danger shots. The B’s penalty kill was very good, ranking sixth in the NHL, killing their penalties off at an 82.5% rate. A lot of the success for the Bruins came from their tandem of fantastic goaltenders, who both pretty much split the net 50/50. Jeremy Swayman went 25-10-8 with a 2.53 GAA, and a .916 save percentage, with three shutouts. Last year’s Vezina winner, Linus Ullmark had a very similar stat line with a 22-10-7 record, a 2.58 GAA, a .915 save percentage, and two shutouts.

The Leafs had a solid season, holding the #3 spot in the Atlantic pretty much the entire year, finishing the year with a 46-26-20 record. They ended the season on a four game losing streak after a run of six wins in seven games. Last year Toronto finally got out of their first round slump, advancing for the first time since 2004, knocking off the Lightning in OT of Game 6 before losing to the Panthers in five.

In typical Toronto fashion, their offense was fantastic this year but their defense and goaltending struggled. They have the second best offense in the league, only behind Colorado, averaging 3.63 goals per game on an average of 32.6 shots per games. The Leafs generated the fourth-most expected goals per game (3.49) and the fifth-most high danger shots. Austin Matthews had an incredible season with an astounding 69 goals on his way to a 107 point season as Mitch Marner led the Leafs with 59 assists.

Defensively, the Maple Leafs weren’t great. They allowed an average of 3.18 goals per game, the twelfth-most in the NHL, on an average of 29.8 shots allowed per game. Toronto gave up the 13th-most expected goals (3.17) per game and fifth-most high danger shots in the league. The PK was pretty terrible as well, only killing off 76.9% of their penalties, ranking tenth-worst in the NHL. Ilya Samsonov led the way in net this year, with a 23-7-8 record with a 3.13 GAA, a .890 save percentage and three shutouts. Not great. His backup, Joseph Woll had a 12-11-1 record with a 2.94 GAA, and a .907 save percentage.

I don’t think either of these teams can win the Cup and I’d expect them both to end up losing to the Panthers in the second round. That said, this is a very close series to me that I expect to be back and forth and go either six or seven games. I’ll lay the juice here at -188 and take the series to go over 5.5 games for three units.

I think the superior defense leads to the Bruins winning this series and once again knocking off the Leafs, but at -125, I don’t think they’re worth betting on to win the series and I think the better move is to just play this one game by game. Tonight I like the B’s to win Game 1 at home and I’ll take them for half a unit.

I’d slightly lean the games in this series end up going over, especially with the totals at 5.5, but only one of the four regular season games between these teams went over. The Leafs trended over this season, with the over going 45-35-2 in their games while the Bruins trended under with the under in their games going 44-37-1. I’ll stay off the total in Games 1 tonight and maybe Game 2 on Monday and evaluate if I should start betting them.

Series Bets

3u Bruins/Maple Leafs over 5.5 games (-188)

Game 1 Bets

.5u Bruins ML (-130)

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