I know that compared to some of the other series we have in the first round this one isn’t that exciting, but I really think this first round matchup between the Pacific Division winner Vancouver Canucks and the first Wild Card in the West, Nashville Predators ends up being a really competitive, solid series.

Vancouver swept the regular season series between these teams, going a perfect 3-0 with a 3-2 win in Nashville on October 24th, 5-2 win at home on Halloween, and then 5-2 again on the road on December 19th.

The Canucks had a fantastic season under new head coach Rick Tocchet, finishing the season in first place in the Pacific Division, five points ahead of the Oilers with a 50-23-9 record. They had some issues with injuries at times but sustained success for much of the season. With a 4-2 loss to the Jets on Thursday in a meaningless game to end the regular season, they finished the year on a big of a slump, with a 5-5-1 record in their last eleven games.

Statistically the Canucks were very good on both ends of the ice this season. Offensively they averaged 3.4 goals per game, the sixth-most in the NHL, on an average of 28.4 shots per game. They generated the 13th-most expected goals (3.13) and the sixth-most high danger shots. The Vancouver power play ranked twelfth in the NHL, scoring at a 22.6% rate. They were led in scoring by J.T. Miller (103 points), Brock Bowser (40 goals), and Quinn Hughes (75 assists).

Defensively Vancouver was very good as well. They allowed an average of 2.7 goals per game, the sixth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 28.6 shots. They gave up the ninth-fewest expected goals (2.91) in the league and the 15th-most high danger shots. The Canucks killed off 79.1% of their penalties. Thatcher Demko returned from injury last week but has a really solid season in between the pipes. This year he had 35-14-2 record, with a 2.45 GAA, and a .918 save percentage, and five shutouts.

The Predators didn’t start the year all that great but after an embarrassing 9-2 loss at home in February that got a trip to the Sphere in Vegas to see U2 cancelled, Smashville got themselves into the playoffs on a very impressive 18 game point streak. They ended the regular season a bit slow with just four wins in their final ten games to finish in the first Wild Card in the West with a 47-30-5 record.

Nashville was decent, but not speculator on both ends of the ice this year. Offensively, they averaged 3.24 goals per game, the tenth-most in the NHL, on an average of 32.2 shots per game. They generated the ninth-most expected goals per game (3.31) and the tenth-most high danger shots in the league. The Preds power play capitalized on 21.6% of their chances. Veterans Filip Forsberg (94 points, 48 goals) and Roman Josi (62 assists) led them in scoring this year.

The Preds allowed an average of 3.02 goals per game, right around league average, on an average of 30.6 shots allowed per game. They gave up the 14th-fewest expected goals (3.03) and the 16th-most high danger shots in the league. Nashville’s penalty kill struggled this year at just 76.9%, the eleventh-worst in the NHL. Juuse Saros is still a top tier goaltender. This season he had a 35-24-5 record, a 2.86 GAA, a .906 save percentage, and three shutouts.

I feel like Vancouver’s the better overall team in this series and I’d lean the Canucks win it, but to me this is too close of a series between two teams that are too tough for me to gauge. I’m not betting any series props on this series. I’d expect it to go six or seven games, but nothing would really shock me here, and Vancouver will need Demko to stay healthy to have success.

I do like the Canucks to win Game 1 at home tonight, and I’ll take them for half a unit.

I’d lean the games in this series go under with a stellar goaltending battle between Demko and Saros. There’s really no stats to back up that trend though, with Canucks games trending over, going 42-36-4 this year and the Preds just barely trending under, with the under in their games going 37-36-9. I’ll stay off the total at least in Game 1 and evaluate as the series begins.

Game 1 Bets

.5u Canucks ML (-145)

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