This series between the #2 seeded Winnipeg Jets and #3 seeded Colorado Avalanche is a fascinating matchup in the Central Division in what I expect to be a great series. Both of these teams had solid seasons, finishing the year just three points apart. This will be the first time these teams have ever met in the playoffs.

The Jets dominated the regular season series between these teams, winning all three games by a combined score of 17-4. They won the first game 4-2 on the road on December 7th, won 6-2 at home on December 16th, and then shit kicked the Avs 7-0 in a shutout of a preview of this series a week ago on the 13th.

Winnipeg had a few question marks going into the season, but a week prior to it starting, they signed the two faces of their franchise, goaltender Connor Hellebuyck and forward Mark Scheifele to new long term deals that seemed to reinvigorate this team. They finished the regular season in second place in the Central with a 52-24-6 record, three points behind the Stars and three points ahead of the Avs. They closed the regular season on a hell of a run, going into the playoffs on an eight game win streak after a 4-2 win against the Canucks on Thursday night.

Statistically the Jets were pretty average offensively this season but one of the best teams in the NHL on the back end. They scored an average of 3.16 goals per game, 15th-most in the league, on an average of 30.3 shots per game. They generated the twelfth-fewest expected goals per game (2.99) and the fourth-fewest high danger shots. Winnipeg’s power play wasn’t great, ranking eleventh-worst in the NHL, scoring on just 18.8% of their chances. Mark Scheifele (72 points), Kyle Connor (34 goals), and Josh Morrissey (59 assists) led them in scoring this season.

For their offense not being great, Winnipeg really made up for it defensively. The Jets allowed the second fewest goals in the NHL this year, an average of just 2.42 goals per game on an average of 29.6 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the tenth-fewest expected goals per game (2.93) and the 13th-fewest high danger shots. Former Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck, who I think is the best goalie in the league, had a sensational season and would be my pick for the Vezina again this year, with a 37-19-4 record, a 2.39 GAA, a .921 save percentage, and five shutouts.

The Avalanche had a solid season as well, finish the year three points back from Winnipeg with a 50-25-7 record the year. Although they went out of the regular season with a 5-1 win over the Oilers on Thursday in a meaningless game, the Avs weren’t great to end the year, with a 4-5-2 record in their last eleven games. Colorado’s built in the exact opposite fashion of the identity of the Jets, with fantastic offense but struggling defense.

Colorado’s offense was incredible this season, with Hart candidate Nathan MacKinnon leading the way with 140 points, 51 goals, and 89 assists. The Avs were the highest scoring team in the NHL this season, averaging 3.68 goals per game on an average of 33 shots per game. They generated the third-most expected goals (3.51) in the league, and the twelfth-most high danger shots. The power play for Colorado was fifth-best in the NHL, scoring on 24.5% of their chances.

The defense and goaltending was a struggle for the Avalanche this season. They were around league average, allowing an average of 3.07 goals per game on an average of 29.8 shots allowed per game. The penalty kill for Colorado wasn’t terrible at 79.9%. Alexandar Georgiev wasn’t great in goal all season, with a 38-18-5 record, but a 3.02 GAA, and .897 save percentage, with two shutouts.

I don’t really expect either of these teams to win the Cup. I think the below average offense of the Jets and the lousy defense and goaltending for the Avalanche lead to them getting bounced.

This is a really tough series for me to figure out. The Avs better top superstars in MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar, but not a ton of depth with the Jets having better depth and bottom six forwards and the far better goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck. I’d very slightly lean the Jets win it with Hellebuyck stealing the series for them with home ice, but no way am I betting a side to win this one. I do kind of like the Jets +1.5 games though, which I’ll take for a unit. The series play I like the best here is for it to go over 5.5, which I’ll take for 2 units. I’ll also take a half unit stab on the series to go to Game 7.

I like the Jets to open the series with a win at home and I’ll take them for half a unit.

I’d slightly lean the games in this series go over. All three regular season games between these teams went over the 5.5. The Avs big time trended over this year, with the over going 47-33-2 in their games, which completely makes sense with their fantastic offense and lousy defense and goaltending. The Jets trended slightly under, with the under going 39-35-8. The playoffs are a different animal though and I could see these games tighten up. I’ll stay off the total in Game 1 tonight and evaluate from there.

Series Bets

2u Avalanche/Jets over 5.5 games (-188)

.5u Avalanche/Jets over 6.5 games (+200)

1u Jets +1.5 games (-165)

Game 1 Bets

.5u Jets ML (-115)

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