Fantastic matchup in the Atlantic Division as the Battle of Florida kicks off today at 12:30 with the defending Eastern Conference Champs and the #1 seed in the Atlantic, Florida Panthers facing their in-state rivals, the 1st Wild Card seeded Lightning.

The Panthers won the regular season series between these teams 2-1, with the road team winning all three games. Florida won the first matchup 3-2 on December 27th, the dominated with a 9-2 win on February 17th before the Lightning won 5-3 on March 16th.

Following their Eastern Conference Championship win last season, the Florida Panthers had a really good season. They finished the year a point ahead of Boston for first place in the Atlantic with a 52-24-6 record. Florida’s heading into the playoffs hot, on a six game point streak and four game win streak after ending the season with a 5-2 win against the Leafs on Tuesday.

Statistically Florida was good on both ends of the ice. Offensively they averaged 3.23 goals per game, eleventh-most in the NHL, on an average of 33.7 shots per game, the second-most in the league, only behind Edmonton by a fraction of a shot per game. The Panthers generated the second-most expected goals (3.67) and the second-most high danger shots in the NHL. Their power play ranked ninth in the league, scoring on 23.5% of their chances. Sam Reinhart led the offense with the best year of his career, scoring 57 goals and 94 points, while Matthew Tkachuk led the team in assists with 62.

Defensively the Panthers were the best team in the NHL this season, allowing an average of just 2.42 goals per game, on the third-fewest shots allowed, an average of just 27.8 per game. 

The Lightning were a solid team all year after losing in the first round last season to the Leafs, ending their run of three straight Eastern Conference Finals wins. This year Tampa stayed comfortably in the first Wild Card spot in the East all season, finishing the year 45-29-8. They don’t go into the playoffs too great though, with just one win, a 6-4 win against the Leafs on Wednesday to end the regular season, in their last four games.

The Bolts were very good offensively this season, but they struggled on the back end. They scored an average of 3.51 goals per game, the fifth-most in the NHL, on an average of 29.3 shots per game. Tampa generated the tenth-most expected goals per game (3.25) and the 13th-most high danger shots. Their power play was the best in the NHL, scoring on 28.6% of their opportunities. Nikita Kucherov had a Hart trophy year, with 144 points, 44 goals, and became the fifth player in NHL history to record 100 assists in a season. Brayden Point led them in goals, lighting the lamp 46 times.

Defensively Tampa struggled this year, allowing an average of 3.26 goals per game, the eleventh-most in the NHL, on an average of 29.6 shots allowed per game. They gave up the 15th-most expected goals per game (3.14) and the ninth-most high danger shots in the league. A bright spot defensively though was the penalty kill, which ranked fifth in the NHL, killing off penalties at an 83.3% rate. Former Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy didn’t have all that great of a year this season, with a 30-20-2 record, a 2.90 GAA, a .900 save percentage, and two shutouts.

I think the Panthers are a fantastic team. They’re very good on both ends of the ice, they’re gritty, tough, and a pain in the ass to play against. I think they have a very good shot at repeating and winning the East, and possibly even the Cup. I don’t mind them at +700 to win the Cup, and I think they should at the very least make it too the Eastern Conference Finals, I just don’t love the value there at +700 while I already have the Canes.

I expect the Panthers to win this series in five or six games, as they’re so much better of a team defensively this season. I’ll lay the -180 on them to win the series for 3 units.

Expecting them to win the series, I’ll take them to win Game 1 at home today for a unit, along with half a unit on the puck line. I like their team total as well, and I’ll take that for a unit too.

I’d slightly lean the games in this series end up going over, but the Panthers trended in the opposite direction. In their games this season, the under went 49-29-4. The Lightning slightly trended over, with the over in their games going 45-35-2. I was going to bet the over in Game 1, but I think the better move is just staying off it today, seeing how this game plays out and possibly take the over in Game 2.

Series Bets

3u Panthers (-180)

Game 1 Bets

1u Panthers ML (-170)

.5u Panthers -1.5 (+162)

1u Panthers TT over 3.5 (+115)

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