I’m anticipating this to be a very quick series with a lousy matchup between the President’s Trophy winning Rangers against the second Wild Card Washington Capitals  in a huge first round mismatch in the Metro Division.

Despite the Rangers being the way better of these teams this year, they split their four regular season games with the home team winning all four games. The Caps won a 4-0 shutout on December 9th, the Rangers answered back with a 5-1 win on December 27th, the Caps got a 3-2 win on January 13th, and the Rangers got a 2-1 win the following night in the second half of a back-to-back home and home.

The New York Rangers had a fantastic season this year, finishing the year with the best record in the NHL and winning the President’s Trophy as they went 55-23-4 as they set a franchise record for most points in a season. Besides a brief slump in January where they went on a four game losing streak that included a loss to the Caps, they didn’t lose more than two games in a row all year.

Statistically the Rags were very good on both ends of the ice this year. They were the seventh highest scoring team in the league this year, averaging 3.39 goals per game on an average of 31.5 shots per game. New York generated the eleventh-most expected goals per game (3.22) and the 15th-most high danger shots in the league. The Rangers power play was very good too, ranking third in the league as they scored on 26.4% of their chances. Artemi Panarin had a great year, leading the Rangers in scoring with 120 points, 49 goals, and 71 assists.

Defensively New York was fantastic too. They allowed an average of 2.76 goals per game, the seventh-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 29.5 shots allowed per game. The Rangers gave up the 13th-fewest expected goals per game (3) and the tenth-fewest high danger shots. Their penalty kill was the third best in the league, killing penalties at an 84.5% rate. Igor Shesterkin led the way in gaol, with a 36-17-2 year, with a 2.58 GAA, a .913 save percentage, and four shutouts. Veteran backup Jonathan Quick was solid behind him with an 18-6-2 record, a 2.62 GAA, and a .911 save percentage, with two shutouts.

After being a snooze fest of a team for most of the season, the Capitals had a hot end of the year winning four of their last five games to sneak into the final Wild Card spot in the East with a 40-31-11 record. It’s astounding when you look at the numbers how bad the Capitals were this season as they struggled on both ends of the ice. They had the worst goal differential (-37) of a team to make the playoffs since 1991. Yikes.

Offensively the Caps were horrendous, scoring an average of just 2.63 goals per game, the fifth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of only 26.5 shots per game. They generated only the sixth-fewest expected goals (2.84) in the league and the fourth-fewest high danger shots. The power play capitalized on 20.6% of their chances, slightly below league average. They were led by Dylan Strome (67 points), Alex Ovechkin (31 goals), and John Carlson (42 assists).

Washington was pretty much league average defensively, allowing an average of 3.07 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots allowed per game. They gave up the 14th-most expected goals per game (3.15) and the 13th-most high danger shots. The Caps killed off 79% of their penalties, a bit below league average. Charlie Lindgren was the starting goaltender for most of the season and did decent between the pipes, with a 25-16-7 record, a 2.67 GAA, a .911 save percentage, and had six shutouts. Stanley Cup winner Darcy Kuemper backed him up with a 13-14-3 record, a 3.31 GAA, and a .890 save percentage, with one shutout.

I expect this series to be over very quickly with the Rangers winning in four or five games. I think the Caps probably get one win at home against their divisional rival, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Rangers sweep this series. The price on this series is insane at -450 for the Rags. I’ll lay the -190 on the Rangers to win it in six games or less for 2.5 units, and like I did for the Canes series, I’ll add another unit on them to win it in 5 games with a half unit on them to sweep.

Obviously I like the Rangers to win Game 1 today at home and I’ll take them in regulation for 1.5 units.

I’d expect the games in this series to trend under. In the four regular season games between these teams, three of them stayed under the 5.5 (with the other one getting to 6 goals in a 5-1 blowout). Rangers games this season trended over, with the over going 42-35-5, while Caps games stayed under, with the under going 43-34-5. I expect the Rangers defense to completely shut down the Caps pathetic offense and even in big wins, these games should stay under the total. In Game 1 today I’ll take the under for half a unit.

Series Bets

2.5u Rangers in six games or less (-190)

1u Rangers in five games (+250)

.5u Rangers in four games (+400)

Game 1 Bets

1.5u Rangers in regulation (-135)

.5u Rangers/Capitals under 5.5 (-120)

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