I think this should be a decent series in the first round in the Pacific Division as the #2 seed Oilers and the #3 seed Kings open the playoffs for the third season in a row. 

The Oilers were the better team between these teams this season, going 3-1 in the divisional matchups between them. The Oilers won 3-2 in a shootout in LA on December 3rd and the Kings answered with a 4-0 shutout win at home on February 10th. Edmonton bounced back with a 4-2 win at home on February 26th and then finished off the season series with a 4-1 win at home on March 28th.

Edmonton had a solid season, finishing in second in the Pacific with a 49-27-6 record and a real good 28-9-4 record at home. They started the year horrible, with a 2-9-1 first month of the season, but after firing head coach Jay Woodcroft they picked it up and never looked back. They ended the year a bit cold though with just one win in their last five games.

Led by the greatest hockey player in the world in Connor McDavid, the Oilers offense was fantastic, fourth in the league in scoring, averaging 3.56 goals per game on an average of 31.9 shots per game. They lead the NHL in expected goals per game (3.74) and had the most high danger shots. Edmonton had the league’s fourth-best power play, clicking at a 26.3% rate. McDavid became the fourth player in NHL history to get to 100 assists, the first player since Mario in the early 90s to hit 100 in a 132 point season. Zach Hyman had a career year with 54 tip in goals.

Edmonton wasn’t bad defensively whatsoever either, much improved from last year. They allowed an average of 2.88 goals per game, the tenth-fewest in the NHL on an average of 28.1 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up just the fourth-fewest expected goals per game (2.78) and the third-fewest high danger shots. The Oilers killed off 79.5% of their penalties. I’m still not sold on Stuart Skinner, who had a 36-16-5 record, a 2.62 GAA, a .905 save percentage, and two shutout this year.

The Kings were decent this year, sneaking into the third Pacific Division spot on the last game of the season, a point ahead of Vegas. They had a lot of ups and downs this season, finishing the year with a 44-27-11 record, five points back from Edmonton.

The Kings were around league average in scoring, averaging 3.1 goals per game on an average of 31.9 shots per game. They generated the twelfth-most expected goals per game (3.22) and the eighth-most high danger shots. LA scored on 22.6% of their power play opportunities, eleventh-best in the NHL. Adrian Kempe (75 points, 47 assists) and Trevor Moore (31 goals) led them in scoring this season.

LA was fantastic defensively this season. They allowed the third fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.56 goals per game on an average of 28 shots allowed. They’ve given up the sixth-fewest expected goals per game (2.82) and the sixth-fewest high danger shots. The Kings had the second-best penalty kill in the league, killing penalties at a 84.6% rate. Cam Talbot was okay in goal this season with a 27-20-6 record, a 2.50 GAA, a .913 save percentage, and three shutouts.

I think the Oilers and the greatest hockey player in the world win this series in five or six games. I think the goaltending for both of these teams could struggle here and I’m not really sold on either, but I think that McDavid and the Edmonton offense take over and get the win in this series. I’ll lay the bit pricey -190 on the Oilers to win this series for three units. I think they end up getting past either the Canucks or Predators to advance to the Western Conference Finals if they get past the Kings. I really considered betting them to win the Cup and add that future, but I think the defense and Stuart Skinner’s goaltending ends up costing them and they lose to whoever comes out of Vegas vs. Dallas in the WCF. If whichever of those teams lose to the winner of Jets vs. Avs though, look out for the Oil.

Expecting them to win the series, I like the Oilers to open up this series with a win at home tonight. I’ll take them for 1.5 units.

Even though I don’t really trust either goaltender in this series, I’d lean the games in this series trend under. This is the only series that had the total in Game 1 set at 6 instead of 5.5, for good reason, but both teams trended under this season with Kings games hitting the under 48-31-3 and Oilers unders going 43-36-3. I’ll stay off the total in at least Game 1.

Series Bets

3u Oilers (-190)

Game Bets

1.5u Oilers ML (-175)

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