I think this is the best series of the first round as the Western Conference leading Dallas Stars face the second Wild Card Vegas Golden Knights. This will be a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals, where Vegas won it in six games to advance to the Cup Finals and it’s insane that one of these teams will get eliminated here. I think the winner of this matchup is going to the Western Conference Finals.

Although the Stars ended the regular season with a better record by eleven points, the Golden Knights swept the season series between these teams, with two of those games needing more than regulation to decide it. The Knights won 3-2 at home in a shootout on October 17th, then won 2-1 on the road in overtime on November 22nd, and finished off the season sweep with a dominant 6-1 win in Dallas on December 19th.

Dallas had a fantastic season, with a 52-21-9 record as the best team in the Western Conference, finishing the year a point behind the Rangers for the President’s Trophy. The Stars had an awesome end to the season, winning the Central by three points over the Jets. They head into the playoffs on a 12-2 run in their last 14 games.

The Stars have been very good on both ends of the ice this year. They have the third-highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.59 goals per game on an average of 31.6 shots per game. They’ve generated the seventh-most expected goals per game (3.41) and the seventh-most high danger shots. Their power play is the sixth-best in the league, capitalizing at a 24.2% rate. Jason Robertson (80 points, 51 assists) and rookie Wyatt Johnston (32 goals) led them in scoring this year.

Dallas was very good defensively too. They’ve allowed an average of 2.83 goals per game, the eighth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 28.7 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up just the third-fewest expected goals per game (2.72) and the second-fewest high danger shots. The Stars penalty kill at 82% ranked them eighth-best in the NHL. Jake Oettinger was solid in goal this year, with a 35-14-4 record, a 2.72 GAA, a .905 save percentage, and three shutouts. I wouldn’t say that’s a great stat line, but when he turns it on, he’s a stud in goal.

The defending Stanley Cup Champions Golden Knights had quite the up and down year this season, coming into the playoffs as the second Wild Card in the West, a point back from the Kings for third in the Pacific with a 45-29-8 record. They started the year with the hottest start of a season for a defending Stanley Cup Champion in NHL history with a 11-0-1 start. The toll of winning the Cup last year hit Vegas though, as they had the most player games lost to injuries in the NHL this season. Captain Mark Stone should get activated off LTIR tonight. The Knights had easily the biggest deadline in the league, acquiring Tomas Hertl, Anthony Mantha, and Noah Hanifin with Hertl and Hanifin now on long term deals with Vegas.

The Knights were decent on both ends of the ice while dealing with all their injuries. They were around league average in scoring, averaging 3.21 goals per game on an average of 31.1 shots per game. They’ve generated the 16th-fewest expected goals per game (3.03) and the 16th-most high danger shots. The Vegas power play struggled a bit, capitalizing on 20.2% of their chances. Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault (69 points and 42 goals) and Jack Eichel led them in scoring again this season.

Vegas was good defensively this year. They’ve allowed an average of 2.96 goals per game, the twelfth-fewest goals in the NHL, on an average of 30.3 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the twelfth-fewest expected goals per game (2.99) and the seventh-fewest high danger shots. The Knights killed off 79.3% of their penalties. Adin Hill, who led the way in the playoffs last year should get the bulk of the starts in the playoffs. Dealing with injuries this year, he had a 19-12-2 record with a 2.71 GAA, a .909 save percentage, and two shutouts. Logan Thompson was solid backing him up, with a 25-14-5 record, a 2.70 GAA, a .908 save percentage, and a shutout.

I think both of these teams are fantastic and the winner of this series will be my pick to go to the Stanley Cup Finals (although the Oilers do worry me a bit on that in the Western Conference Finals). The way both of these teams are built have all of the pieces to win a Cup. Vegas showed that last year and when they’re healthy, they’ve gotten even better this year with the additions of Hertl and Hanifin in the LTIR magic. The Stars are a monster too and there’s really nothing that you can knock on them.

The only thing that gives me a lean on this series is the Stars having home ice, but this is anyone’s series. After their incredible start to the year back in early November, I put in a four unit future on the Knights to repeat. I feel like I have to hedge that somehow. I think one of these teams end up in the Western Conference Finals, and I’ll match my Vegas future with four units on the Stars to win the Cup as well.

On the series itself I will stay off any side. I do like this series to go six or seven games, and I’ll take the prop on it to go over 5.5 games for 3 units.

I’d very slightly lean the Stars get the win in Game 1 at home tonight, but this is going to be the first game of the playoffs that I’m not betting on at all.

I feel like the totals in the games in this series are a complete toss up. The under went 2-1 in their regular season games, and both teams were around 50/50 on totals this season with the under going 41-39-2 for Vegas, but them trending over recently and the Stars games going 42-39-1 to the over, but them trending under lately. I’ll stay off it at least in Game 1.

Futures

4u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)

4u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+850)

Series Bets

3u Stars/Golden Knights over 5.5 games (-172)

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