Incredible Friday night for me on the NHL Playoffs with a huge card last night, as I went 11-3 to win 7.58. Today we have some huge games with two series that could end early today. Let’s keep crushing this first round!
Game 4 – Islanders vs. Hurricanes (2:00)
The early game today could end the first series of the playoffs as the Canes come into this game on Long Island with a commanding 3-0 lead in the series. As this series shifted to Long Island on Thursday night, the Hurricanes got out to a 2-0 lead in the first 10:25 of their game and despite getting outshot 31-22, never trailed on their way to a 3-2 win, a game away from advancing. I expect the Canes to end this today with a sweep of the Islanders. Like I said before Friday’s game, I just don’t see a way that the Isles could come back from the way they lost both games in Carolina. I’ll win 5.7 units if the Canes sweep today, and I’ll double down today on the Canes. I have a nice boost on FanDuel to get them to -120, and I’ll take that for 2.5 units. Go Canes. I’d slightly lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Game 4 – Lightning vs. Panthers (5:00)
Florida took a commanding 3-0 series lead in Tampa against their biggest rivals in the Battle of Florida on Friday night with a big 5-3 win on the road. Sergei Bobrovsky was fantastic in goal again, making 26 saves on the 29 shots he faced. The Panthers defense has just been way too good for the Lightning in such a physical series, with Game 3 having 123 total hits. This series might last one more game with the Bolts facing elimination today, but I don’t really see that happening. This is likely a sweep. The Panthers are just too much for Tampa. I’ll win three units when they win this series, and on the road today the price his cheap enough here that I’ll double down on Florida. I’ll take them for a unit on the moneyline with another half unit on the puck line. Worst case I’ll just chase it by doubling it in Game 5 in Sunrise. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it in an elimination game.
Game 4 – Maple Leafs vs. Bruins (8:00)
This series has been pretty solid so far. After these teams split their games in Boston with a dominant Game 1 for the Bruins in a 5-1 win and the Leafs bouncing back with a 3-2 win on the road, the B’s took back home ice with a 4-2 win in Toronto in Game 3. I do think that Boston is definitely the better team in this series, but I do lean this series goes to Game 7. I’d lean the Leafs win this one at home. I have a series bet on this for the series to go 5.5 games, which will win me 3 units with a Leafs win tonight. I’ll let that ride here in what I think is a pretty evenly matched game with Boston on the road, especially if Ullmark starts in goal (although if I was Monty I’d go with Swayman again). I’ll lay off this game entirely and just ride my series play. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet it, with this game likely getting 5 or 6 goals. Go Leafs I guess.
Game 3 – Golden Knights vs. Stars (10:30)
The Vegas Golden Knights. The Cup champs look fantastic again this series, taking a 2-0 series lead back to Vegas after two solid wins in Dallas. I thought going into this series that this would be a really good competitive series, likely going seven games and more so I though the winner of this series is winning the Cup. I still think the Knights are lifting Lord Stanley again, but Dallas doesn’t have a chance here. Vegas was especially impressive to me in Game 3 defensively, only giving up a goal and 21 shots, not giving up even one shot on goal in the last six minutes of the game. Even if the Stars win a game in Vegas, this series isn’t going more than five games. So with that, I hate my series bet on it to go over 5.5 games. I’ll eat the future on the Stars, but I have to hedge out of that big total games play, which will lose me 5.16 units. I think the best way to do so after crunching the spreadsheet looking at exact results and shit like that, is to just flip my position here with a pretty simple bet. I’ll take the Golden Knights to win this series in 5 games or less for 5 units, which makes me essentially break even on those series bets if this series last four or five games and limits me to 2.5 units of a loss if this series goes crazy instead of 5.16 units. I also like the Knights to win Game 3 at home tonight and I’ll take them for a unit.
Game Bets
2.5u Hurricanes ML (-121, boosted on FanDuel)
1u Panthers ML (-125)
.5u Panthers -1.5 (+195)
1u Golden Knights ML (-114)
Series Bets
4u Hurricanes in six games or less (-155)
1u Hurricanes in five games (+300)
.5u Hurricanes in four games (+540)
3u Bruins/Maple Leafs over 5.5 games (-188)
3u Panthers (-180)
2.5u Rangers in six games or less (-190)
1u Rangers in five games (+250)
.5u Rangers in four games (+400)
2u Avalanche/Jets over 5.5 games (-188)
.5u Avalanche/Jets over 6.5 games (+200)
1u Jets +1.5 games (-165)
3u Stars/Golden Knights over 5.5 games (-172)
3u Oilers (-190)
2u Rangers in five games or less (-155)
1.5u Predators (-105)
5u Golden Knights in five games or less (-110)
Futures
4u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
4u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+850)
3u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+650)
Regular Season Record: 599-527-12 (-95.22 units)
Round 1 Record: 27-14 (+16.4 units)
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A Town's Zone 