After pretty much a bye week for the Zurich, the PGA Tour heads to Dallas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, with a pretty weak field at TPC Craig Ranch.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7468 yards, six of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, three of the Par 3s are over 216 yards, all three Par 5s are driveable as well as the 330 yard Par 4 14th, wide Zoysia grass (most prevalent in Asia and Australia) fairways with a good amount of roll, rough is pretty light, trees and bunkers in play off the tee and water is in play on 13 holes with a creek running through a majority of the course, 83 bunkers, higher than tour average driving accuracy (~64% vs. ~62%) and much longer driving distance than tour average (291 yards vs. 283 yards), higher than tour average GIR % (~70% vs. ~66%), above average sized bentgrass greens with bunkers in play, fourth easiest scrambling course on tour so it’s easy to make up for missing greens, easy birdiefest course that’s easy to score on with the most birdies of any course on tour, one of the easiest courses on tour
Tournament Notes
- 2021 was the first season this event was held here at TPC Craig Ranch, it used to be held at Trinity Forest Golf Club and TPC Four Seasons prior to that
- This course previously hosted the Nationwide Tour Championship (now Korn Ferry Tour) in 2012 (James Hahn and Adam Hadwin came 2nd and 3rd that week) and 2008 (Leishman came T7)
- The sponsor of this changed this year from AT&T to now being CJ Cup
- Some of the holes on this course are so easy that if you don’t make birdie, you’re actually losing strokes on the field
- Last year this event was the week before the PGA Championship and got a stronger field
- 6 of the top 7 finishers in 2022 gained strokes on the Par 3s, which are the hardest holes on the course
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Birdie+ Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (35.6%)
Field
152 golfers – terrible field strength
Defending Champion: Jason Day (-23)
Runner Up Last Year: Austin Eckroat & Si Woo Kim (-22)
One and Done: Si Woo Kim
One and Done Considerations: Tom Hoge, Si Woo Kim, Jordan Spieth
Players
Si Woo Kim: 9800: +1800 – Runner up here last season with T2,MC,T55 finishes here, hasn’t missed a cut since October and has been much more consistent, 18,30,17,6,30,44,12,14,25,42,25 finishes in his last eleven events, 16th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 14th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 24th in Par 5 scoring, 100th in Proximity 200+ yards, 10th in SG: ARG, 147th in Putting, 38th in Opportunities Gained, 61st in Birdie+ Gained
Alex Noren: 9500: +2500 – Playing well and I think he can have success here, T12 and T21 finishes his two times here, 23,14,11,19,9,53,26,25,42,23,2,48,3 finishes in his last 13 events, 17th in Approach, 37th in SG: OTT, 44th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 6th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 8th in Par 5 scoring, 115th in Proximity 200+ yards, 8th in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 57th in Opportunities Gained, 101st in Birdie+ Gained
Stephan Jaeger: 9200: +3500 – Has already won this season a few weeks ago in Houston, decent course history here with T11 and T38 finishes here the last two years, 18,MC,1,MC,44,MC,3,71,3,52,18,28 finishes in his last twelve events, 46th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 51st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 20th in Par 5 scoring, 104th in Proximity 200+ yards, 7th in SG: ARG, 61st in Putting, 86th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained
Tom Hoge: 9100: +3500 – First in my model and my favorite pick this week, T43,T16,MC finishes here, 18,14,54,12,28,8,17,6,56,17 finishes in his last ten events, 1st in Approach, 111th in SG: OTT, 33rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 20th in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 19th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 127th in SG: ARG, 12th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained
Keith Mitchell: 8800: +3500 – Has been good on approach and off the tee this season, popping on leaderboards at times this season, T76 and T26 finishes here, 14,MC,17,73,9,19,17,54,MC,9,19,17,54,MC,9,30,MC,38,21 finishes in his last 14 events, 11th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 12th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 27th in Par 4 scoring, 104th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 12th in Par 5 scoring, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 130th in SG: ARG, 144th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdie+ Gained
Aaron Rai: 8000: +6500 – Once again is one of the losers that pops on my model, MC and T46 finishes here the last two years, MC,58,7,MC,35,23,19,MC,33,MC,57,21,28 finishes in his last 13 events, 10th in Approach, 33rd in SG: OTT, 99th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 44th in Par 4 scoring, 15th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 90th in Par 5 scoring, 35th in Proximity 200+ yards, 80th in SG: ARG, 96th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 34th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards (10%)
Par 4 scoring (5%)
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 scoring (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I crushed this tournament last year, hitting the winner on Jason Day with a T2 on Si Woo Kim and a T5 on Tyrrell Hatton
Bets
Outrights
.5u Si Woo Kim (+1800)
.5u Alex Noren (+2500)
.5u Stephan Jaeger (+3500)
.5u Tom Hoge (+3500)6
.5u Keith Mitchell (+3500)
.2u Aaron Rai (+6500)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 