With the Bruins advancing in Game 7 against the Leafs and not blowing a 3-1 lead again, we get a rematch of last year’s first round with the Florida Panthers looking to take down Boston for the second year in a row. Last year in the regular season the Bruins set records for the best year in NHL history, but it didn’t end any way they wanted, as the President’s Trophy champs blew a 3-1 series lead and went on to lose in OT of Game 7 to the eventual Eastern Conference Champion Panthers.

In their revenge from the end of last season, the Bruins swept the regular season series between these teams. Their first game on October 30th needed overtime, with the Bruins winning 3-2 at home. Boston won both games on the road, winning Game 2 3-1 on November 22nd, and then 4-3 on March 26th in Sunrise. The B’s finished the regular season series with a 3-2 overtime win at home once again on April 6th.

For the first time in franchise history, the Florida Panthers defeated their in state rival Lightning in the first round, taking down Tampa in five games. The Cats won both of the first two games at home against the Bolts 3-2, but were the far better team in both of those games, winning Game 1 in regulation and then needing overtime but getting the win again. When the series shifted to Tampa for Game 3, Bobrovsky and Tkachuk led the way to a 5-3 win to take a commanding 3-0 lead. The Lightning were the better team in Game 4 at home, avoid the season sweep with a 6-3 win. As the series shifted back to Lauderdale for Game 5, the Panthers dominated in a 6-1 blowout to close out the Bolts and get some rest while they awaited the Bruins and Leafs beating up on each other.

The Panthers were great statistically on both ends of the ice in the first round. They averaged 4 goals per game, the third-most of the teams in the playoffs. Their power play was alright, scoring on on 23.1% of their chances. Defensively they were solid too, taking away the chances for the Lightning. They allowed an average of 2.8 goals per game. The penalty kill for Florida was pretty good, killing off 80% of their penalties.

Following their Eastern Conference Championship win last season, the Florida Panthers had a really good season. They finished the year a point ahead of Boston for first place in the Atlantic with a 52-24-6 record. Florida’s heading into the playoffs hot, on a six game point streak and four game win streak after ending the season with a 5-2 win against the Leafs on Tuesday.

Statistically Florida was good on both ends of the ice. Offensively they averaged 3.23 goals per game, eleventh-most in the NHL, on an average of 33.7 shots per game, the second-most in the league, only behind Edmonton by a fraction of a shot per game. The Panthers generated the second-most expected goals (3.67) and the second-most high danger shots in the NHL. Their power play ranked ninth in the league, scoring on 23.5% of their chances. Sam Reinhart led the offense with the best year of his career, scoring 57 goals and 94 points, while Matthew Tkachuk led the team in assists with 62.

Defensively the Panthers were the best team in the NHL this season, allowing an average of just 2.42 goals per game, on the third-fewest shots allowed, an average of just 27.8 per game. Florida gave up the fifth-fewest expected goals per game (2.78) in the league and the eleventh-fewest high danger shots. Their penalty kill was great, ranking sixth in the NHL, killing penalties at an 82.5% rate. Sergei Bobrovsky, who was the horse that led Florida through their Eastern Conference Championship run last year, was fantastic again this year. In the regular season he went 36-17-4 with a 2.37 GAA, a .915 save percentage, and six shutouts.

Round 1 for the Bruins against the Leafs was an absolute roller coaster as the B’s took down Toronto in overtime of Game 7 on David Pastrnak’s game winner on Saturday night. Boston shit pumped Toronto in the first game of the series, winning 5-1 at home. The Leafs answered back with a 3-2 win in Boston in Game 2, but with a 4-2 win in Toronto in Game 3 and a 3-1 win in Game 4, the Bruins, just like last year, took a commanding 3-1 lead in the series heading back home. Jeremy Swayman was incredible in goal and the Leafs couldn’t get anything going. Heading back to Boston though for Game 5, with the emergence of Joseph Woll in goal for the Leafs, the Bruins collapses. They were outshot 11-2 in the first period of Game 5 and despite incredible play by Swayman to stay in the game and take it to overtime, the Leafs got a 2-1 overtime win on the road to extend the series. The start to Game 6 was even worse for the Bruins, getting outshot 12-1 in the first as Toronto forced Game 7 with yet another 2-1 win. Game 7 was an incredible game on Saturday night, and with David Pastrnak’s game winner in OT, on a lousy defensive effort by the Leafs, Boston avoided repeating history and got the 2-1 win to advance.

Although Boston’s offense wasn’t all that great with Joseph Woll shutting them down in the first round, the Bruins had the best defense and goaltending of the first round of the playoffs. The offense averaged just 2.57 goals per game. Defensively though, Swayman was absolutely incredible, giving up the fewest goals of the first round, an average of just 1.71 per game. The B’s power play scored on 35.3% of their chances and their penalty kill was the second best of the first round at 95.2%.

I thought the Bruins would take a significant downturn after last year this season but really didn’t, finishing the year a point out from Florida for first in the Atlantic with a 47-20-15 record. They didn’t finish the year great, going 6-6 in their last twelve games.

Statistically the Bruins were around league average offensively this year, averaging 3.21 goals per game, 13th-most in the NHL, on an average of just 29.2 shots per game. They’ve generated the 15th-most expected goals (3.06 per game) and the eleventh-most high-danger shots in the league. Boston scored on 22.2% of their power play chances this year, also around league average. David Pastrnak had a hell of a year, leading the B’s with 110 points, 47 goals, and 63 assists.

Boston was very good defensively this year. They allowed an average of just 2.7 goals per game, the fifth fewest in the NHL, on an average of 30.5 shots per game. They’ve given up the 15th-fewest expected goals (3.03 per game) and the twelfth-most high-danger shots. The B’s penalty kill was very good, ranking sixth in the NHL, killing their penalties off at an 82.5% rate. A lot of the success for the Bruins came from their tandem of fantastic goaltenders, who both pretty much split the net 50/50. Jeremy Swayman went 25-10-8 with a 2.53 GAA, and a .916 save percentage, with three shutouts. Last year’s Vezina winner, Linus Ullmark had a very similar stat line with a 22-10-7 record, a 2.58 GAA, a .915 save percentage, and two shutouts.

I think the Bruins just beat up on the Leafs to set themselves up for a five or six game loss to the Panthers. Florida’s the far better team here and this year, it won’t be an upset when they eliminate Boston. I think the only way that the Panthers could win this series is if Swayman stands on his head again and outduels Bobrovsky. I’ll take the Panthers to win this series for 2 units, laying the -190.

The puck drops on Game 1 tonight at 8:00 in Sunrise. Expecting Florida to win the series, I like them to win Game 1 at home tonight and I’ll take them for a unit.

I really like the games in this series to trend under with Swayman vs. Bobrovsky in goal. I think these games are going to be grinds, with really solid goaltending. In the regular season, three of the four games between these teams stayed under 5.5. The Bruins first round series had the under hit in five of seven games, while the under went 2-3 in Florida’s five games. Both of these teams heavily trended under in the regular season, with the under in Bruins games going 49-38-2 and in Panthers games going 51-32-4. I like that trend to start off in Round 1 and I’ll take the under for 1.5 units.

Series Bets

2u Panthers to win series (-190)

Game 1 Bets

1u Panthers ML (-166)

1.5u Panthers/Bruins under 5.5 (-122)

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