This second round series in the Central Division between the Stars and the Avalanche should be spectacular. Both of these teams had fantastic years, and continued to impress in the first round as the Stars took down the Golden Knights in seven games and the Avs beating Winnipeg in five.

Although the Stars had the better regular season, the Avalanche went 3-1 against them this season. Colorado won the first game 6-3 on the road on November 18th and followed that up with a 5-4 overtime win in Dallas on January 4th. In Colorado on February 27th, the Avs dominated in a 5-1 win. The Stars avoided the season sweep in the last week of the regular season with a 7-4 win in Denver on April 7th.

Dallas had a fantastic season, with a 52-21-9 record as the best team in the Western Conference, finishing the year a point behind the Rangers for the President’s Trophy. The Stars had an awesome end to the season, winning the Central by three points over the Jets. They headed into the playoffs on a 12-2 run in their last 14 games.

The Stars took down the defending Cup Champion Golden Knights in the first round of the playoffs in a series that I said would determine the Cup Champion. It’s still nuts to me that two of the best contenders had to face each other in the first round, but alas, Dallas advanced in seven games in an awesome series. Vegas looked to be the better team to open the series, as they won Game 1 4-3 and Game 2 3-1 in Dallas, and I thought the series was going to be over quickly. The Stars took over though as the series shifted to Vegas. They won 3-2 in overtime in Game 3 and then 4-2 in Game before. They took their first series lead with the first home win of the series, winning 3-2 at home in Game 5. The Knights avoided elimination in Game 6 with a 2-0 shutout win, but the Stars ended the series and knocked off Vegas with a 2-1 win in Game 7 on Sunday night.

The Stars were very good on both ends of the ice this year. They have the third-highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.59 goals per game on an average of 31.6 shots per game. They’ve generated the seventh-most expected goals per game (3.41) and the seventh-most high danger shots. Their power play is the sixth-best in the league, capitalizing at a 24.2% rate. Jason Robertson (80 points, 51 assists) and rookie Wyatt Johnston (32 goals) led them in scoring this year.

Dallas was very good defensively too. They’ve allowed an average of 2.83 goals per game, the eighth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 28.7 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up just the third-fewest expected goals per game (2.72) and the second-fewest high danger shots. The Stars penalty kill at 82% ranked them eighth-best in the NHL. Jake Oettinger was solid in goal this year, with a 35-14-4 record, a 2.72 GAA, a .905 save percentage, and three shutouts. I wouldn’t say that’s a great stat line, but when he turns it on, he’s a stud in goal.

In the first round, the Stars weren’t all that great offensively against the tough Vegas defense. They scored an average of 2.29 goals per game, the sixth-fewest of the 16 teams that made playoffs. Their power play was solid though, scoring on 28.6% of their chances. The Dallas defense though was spectacular in front of Oettinger. They allowed the fifth-fewest goals of the first round, an average of just 2.29 goals per game. They killed off 75% of their penalties. 

The Avalanche had a solid season as well, finish the year three points back from Winnipeg with a 50-25-7 record the year. Although they went out of the regular season with a 5-1 win over the Oilers on Thursday in a meaningless game, the Avs weren’t great to end the year, with a 4-5-2 record in their last eleven games. Colorado’s built in the exact opposite fashion of the identity of the Jets, with fantastic offense but struggling defense.

Going into the Avs first round series against the Jets, I thought that would be a solid competitive series between the fantastic defense and goaltending for Winnipeg and the incredible offense of Colorado. That turned out to be wrong. After Game 1 which was the most fun game to watch in the playoffs, a 7-6 win for the Jets with both teams trading goals all game long, the Avs dominated from there on out. They won the next four games to win the series in five games, playing fantastic hockey on both ends of the ice, averaging 5.6 goals per game while allowing 3 or less goals in Games 2-5. The Avalanche tied the series on the road with a 5-2 win in Game 2, then crushed at home with 6-2 and 5-1 wins in Games 3 and 4, and then ended the series with a 6-3 win in Winnipeg in Game 5. Going into the series, I had concerns with the goaltending from Alexandar Georgiev but he was great after Game 1, and the Avs offense was able to pretty easily figure out this year’s likely Vezina winner the entire series.

Colorado’s offense was incredible this season, with Hart candidate Nathan MacKinnon leading the way with 140 points, 51 goals, and 89 assists. The Avs were the highest scoring team in the NHL this season, averaging 3.68 goals per game on an average of 33 shots per game. They generated the third-most expected goals (3.51) in the league, and the twelfth-most high danger shots. The power play for Colorado was fifth-best in the NHL, scoring on 24.5% of their chances.

The defense and goaltending was a struggle for the Avalanche this season. They were around league average, allowing an average of 3.07 goals per game on an average of 29.8 shots allowed per game. The penalty kill for Colorado wasn’t terrible at 79.9%. Alexandar Georgiev wasn’t great in goal all season, with a 38-18-5 record, but a 3.02 GAA, and .897 save percentage, with two shutouts.

The Avalanche were fantastic statistically in the first round. Their offense led the first round, scoring an impressive 5.6 goals per game. Their power play only trailed the Oilers and Rangers at 37.5%. In the whole first round, Colorado allowed an average of 3 goals per game, but when you take out the 7 goals they gave up in Game 1, they allowed an average of just 2 per game and Georgiev played much better between the pipes. The Avs killed off 76.9% of their penalties.

I think just as I expected for the first round matchups for both of these teams, I think this series is going to be awesome. The Stars are my pick to win the Cup, which I said before the playoffs start in saying that the winner of Vegas vs. Stars would be my Cup pick. They’re a deep, well rounded team that don’t really have a flaw, playing fantastic hockey on both ends of the ice. I have a four unit future on them, and I’m letting that ride. The Avs scare me though. That offense, especially the top line, is one of the best in hockey alongside the Oilers. Like they showed against the best goalie in the league in the first round, they can expose any defense and win games by scoring five goals. I thought the poor goaltending and lack of depth would cause issues for Colorado in the first round against the Jets, but they proved me wrong as Georgiev was great in Game 2-5 against Winnipeg. I think this ends up being a close series that goes six or seven games. I’d still slightly lean the more well rounded Stars win, but I’m definitely not doubling down here. I was going to bet the series to go over 5.5 games, but at -192, I think the better move is just playing it game by game.

I’d lean the Stars win Game 1 tonight at home, with the Avs having the rust of not playing for a week, but not enough to bet on it.

I’d expect the games in this series to trend over. In the four regular season games between these teams the over 6.5 went 3-1, with the fourth game hitting six goals in a 5-1 Avs blowout win. Avs games trended over in the regular season, with the over going 51-34-2 in their games. The total in Stars games went 44-44-1. Four of Colorado’s five playoff games in the first round hit the over. In the Stars’ first round against Vegas, that series did trend under, with the over just hitting twice in seven games. I do like the over though tonight, which I’ll take at the alternate 6 line for a unit in Game 1.

Futures

4u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+850)

Game 1 Bets
1u Stars/Avalanche over 6 (-132)

---

Please follow me:

Instagram: @atownszone

Twitter: @atownszone

If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!

… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…