I don’t expect this Pacific Division series between the Canucks and the Oilers to be all that great in this Canadian matchup, but it could end up being fun. Both of these teams have had fantastic regular season, but I feel like they’re on different trajectories coming into this second round series. The Oilers made easy work of the Kings, advancing in five games and the Canucks defeated the Predators in a strange six game series.

The Canucks swept the regular season series between these teams, some of those wins in dominant fashion. These teams opened the season with a home and home. The Canucks blew out the Oilers 8-1 on opening night on October 11th, and then followed that up with a 4-3 win on the road three days later. On November 6th, they won 6-2 at home. All three of those games were during Edmonton’s horrible start to the season prior to firing Jay Woodcroft. These teams met the final time of the regular season in Edmonton on April 13th, with the Canucks completing the season sweep with a 3-1 road win.

The Canucks had a fantastic season under new head coach Rick Tocchet, finishing the season in first place in the Pacific Division, five points ahead of the Oilers with a 50-23-9 record. They had some issues with injuries at times but sustained success for much of the season. With a 4-2 loss to the Jets in a meaningless game to end the regular season, they finished the year on a big of a slump, with a 5-5-1 record in their last eleven games of the regular season.

In the first round, the Canucks played the weirdest and most boring series of the playoffs against the Predators. With Thatcher Demko in goal to start the playoffs, Vancouver won Game 1 at home 4-2, scoring twice in twelve seconds in the third period to get the win. The Canucks fear on Demko came true and in Game 2 it was Casey DeSmith in goal. In a boring game, that saw the Canucks outshoot Nashville 18-16, with neither team getting anything goal, but the Preds won the game 4-1 on the road to take a tied series back to Smashville. I thought at that point, especially with the goaltending that the Predators were winning that series. Game 3 was pathetic for both teams and although the Preds outshot Vancouver 30-12, the Canucks got the 2-1 win, scoring twice on the power play. Before Game 4, we got more injury news for the Vancouver goaltending room and Artur Silovs took over the net with DeSmith injured. Game 4 was insane. The Preds were up 3-1 and in control with less than three minutes to go in regulation, but with two Brock Boeser goals (blowing my 3-0 bets on that game, which flipped to 0-3 REAL quick), they tied it up and sent the game to overtime with Lindholm scoring the game winner 1:02 into OT for a 4-3 Canucks win, taking a 3-1 series lead. The Preds avoided elimination with a 2-1 win in Vancouver in Game 5, before Silovs picked up a shutout in Nashville in Game 6 to end the series, as Pius Suter scored the only goal of the game with 1:39 remaining in regulation to win it.

Statistically the Canucks were very good on both ends of the ice this year in the regular season. Offensively they averaged 3.4 goals per game, the sixth-most in the NHL, on an average of 28.4 shots per game. They generated the 13th-most expected goals (3.13) and the sixth-most high danger shots. The Vancouver power play ranked twelfth in the NHL, scoring at a 22.6% rate. They were led in scoring by J.T. Miller (103 points), Brock Bowser (40 goals), and Quinn Hughes (75 assists).

Defensively Vancouver was very good as well. They allowed an average of 2.7 goals per game, the sixth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 28.6 shots. They gave up the ninth-fewest expected goals (2.91) in the league and the 15th-most high danger shots. The Canucks killed off 79.1% of their penalties. Thatcher Demko returned from injury the week before playoffs but has a really solid season in between the pipes. This year he had 35-14-2 record, with a 2.45 GAA, and a .918 save percentage, and five shutouts. Casey DeSmith was his backup and in the regular season wasn’t great, with a 12-9-6 record, a 2.89 GAA, and an .869 save percentage. Arturs Silovs was the third string goalie, going 3-0-1 with a 2.47 GAA, and a .881 save percentage.

The Canucks didn’t impress me offensively whatsoever, but were really solid defensively despite their carousel of goaltenders in the first round of the playoffs. The offense was pathetic, the fourth lowest scoring of the first round and the lowest of the eight teams that advance, scoring an average of just 2.17 goals per game. The power play converted at just a 15.4% rate. Defensively they were very good though. They allowed an average of just 2 goals per game, really limiting the opportunities that Nashville had to score. Their penalty kill was fantastic, at 90.9%.

Edmonton had a solid season, finishing in second in the Pacific with a 49-27-6 record and a real good 28-9-4 record at home. They started the year horrible, with a 2-9-1 first month of the season, but after firing head coach Jay Woodcroft they picked it up and never looked back. They ended the year a bit cold though with just one win in their last five regular season games.

The Oilers dominated the Kings in the first round of the playoffs, winning it in five games, with the only loss coming in overtime. They opened the series with a huge 7-4 win at home in Game 1, with all of their stars contributing, including Zach Hyman’s first playoff hat trick and a five assist night for Connor McDavid. The Kings answered back to tie the series in Game 2. LA got out to a 3-1 lead in the first period. The Oilers came back twice in that game to take it to overtime, but Anze Kopitar got the 5-4 win on the road in OT. Edmonton bounced back in dominant fashion in Game 3, blowing out the Kings 6-1 to take back home ice in the series. They followed it up with a grind of a game in Game 4, with Stuart Skinner getting a shutout in a 1-0 win on the road to take a 3-1 series lead back home to Edmonton for Game 5. The Oilers closed out the series with a 4-3 win at home on the back of a big three goal second period.

Led by the greatest hockey player in the world in Connor McDavid, the Oilers offense was fantastic, fourth in the league in scoring, averaging 3.56 goals per game on an average of 31.9 shots per game. They lead the NHL in expected goals per game (3.74) and had the most high danger shots. Edmonton had the league’s fourth-best power play, clicking at a 26.3% rate. McDavid became the fourth player in NHL history to get to 100 assists, the first player since Mario in the early 90s to hit 100 in a 132 point season. Zach Hyman had a career year with 54 tip in goals.

Edmonton wasn’t bad defensively whatsoever either, much improved from last year. They allowed an average of 2.88 goals per game, the tenth-fewest in the NHL on an average of 28.1 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up just the fourth-fewest expected goals per game (2.78) and the third-fewest high danger shots. The Oilers killed off 79.5% of their penalties. I’m still not sold on Stuart Skinner, who had a 36-16-5 record, a 2.62 GAA, a .905 save percentage, and two shutout this year.

The Oilers were very good statistically on both ends of the ice in the first round. They as expected, dominated offensively, averaging 4.4 goals per game, second-most in the playoffs behind the Avs. Their power play continued to be the best we’ve ever seen, scoring on 45% of their chances, along with another few goals seconds after power plays ended. The defense and goaltending was solid as well, allowing an average of 2.6 goals per game. Their penalty kill was perfect, not allowing a single goal while they were shorthanded.

I think we can throw out the results of the regular season series between these teams and although I do see the Canucks defense being a bit of a problem for Edmonton, I fully expect the Oilers to walk through this series in five, or maybe six games. The price on this series is expensive at -260, but I’ll take the Oilers to win the series in six games or less for 2.5 units.

Expecting them to win the series, I like the Oilers to win Game 1 on the road and at a cheaper price than expected, I’ll take them for a unit in what I expect to be a grind of a game.

I don’t really have much of a lean on the totals in this series. During the regular season, Oilers games trended under, with the under going 43-36-3 while the Canucks trended over, with the over going 42-36-4 in their regular season games. Those trends completely flipped in the first round of the playoffs though with the over going 4-1 in the Oilers’ series against the Kings, and the under going 4-2 in the Canucks’ first round against Nashville. I’ll stay off the total in Game 1 and see how this series plays out.

Series Bets

2.5u Oilers to win series in six games or less (-140)

Game 1 Bets

1u Oilers ML (-130)

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