Leading up to the PGA Championship next week, this week the PGA Tour goes to Quail Hollow for an elevated event (without Scheffler) for the Wells Fargo Championship.

It’s almost 1am, I’m not doing video here.

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7559 yards, one of the hardest courses on tour every year, nine of the eleven Par 4s are over 450 yards, the other two Par 4s are short and drivable (played almost as easy as the Par 5s), three of the four Par 3s are over 200 yards, Par 5s are reachable in two by most of the field and you need to score on them, overseeded Bermuda grass, narrow to average width tree lined fairways, 61 bunkers and water in play on seven holes, very low fairways hit (~54% vs. 62% tour average), very high average driving distance here (~300 yards vs. tour average 284), rough isn’t too penal and missing fairways isn’t going to kill you, lot of right to left doglegs (which favors natural draw), slightly lower than tour average GIR % (~61% vs. 66%), average proximity from the rough here is the lowest on tour, average sized fast multitiered greens with some undulation, putting is very difficult here with consistently lowest make % of putts inside 10 feet

Tournament Notes

• This event was held at TPC Potomac in 2022 due to this course hosting the President’s Cup
• This event did not take place at this course in 2017, since it hosted the 2017 PGA Championship in an even tougher setup than it usually has or in 2020 when it was cancelled during COVID
• The course underwent a major renovation in 2016, so it isn’t worth looking at the course history from before 2017
• This course has the smallest gap between SG: OTT and Approach for the T10/T5/Winners, while it has one of the lowest SG: ARG numbers, around the green play here does not matter
• The Green Mile (holes 16-18) is the hardest closing stretch on tour
• Driving accuracy isn’t much a factor here since everyone misses the fairway, but distance does
• Since 2012, 6 of the 10 winners here had a T10 in one of the two previous years here (Clark, Homa, Ernst and Hahn were the ones that did not)
• 10 of the T13 at the PGA Championship here in 2017 gained at least 2.2 strokes OTT
• This event was moved up in the schedule this year to now be the week before the PGA Championship
• No cut event this season for this being a small signature event
• There has never been a repeat winner two years in a row here

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Driving Distance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 175+ yards (53.8%) with 31.2% from over 200 yards

Corollary Courses

• Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open) – Ton of crossover success here since they’re similar setups – long, tough courses
• Torrey Pines Golf Course (Farmers Insurance Open)

Field

69 golfers – Fantastic field strength for a signature event (without Scottie Scheffler in the field)

Defending Champion: Wyndham Clark (-19)

Runner Up Last Year: Xander Schauffele (-15)

One and Done: Wyndham Clark

One and Done Considerations: Rory, Xander, Wyndham

Players

Wyndham Clark: 10500: +1700 – Defending champ with 1,43 and MC finishes here, 3,MC,31,2,2,MC,41,1,39,29,3,15 finishes in his last twelve events, 21st in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Driving Distance, 47th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 28th in Proximity 200+ yards, 38th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 8th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 10th in Par 5 scoring, 3rd in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 17th in Bogie Avoidance

Sahith Theegala: 9100: +3000 – Finished 56th his only time here last year, 2,45,28,9,6,37,5,20,64,MC,2,MC,19,1,15,13 finishes in his last 16 events, 18th in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 19th in Driving Distance, 39th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 25th in Proximity 200+ yards, 22nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 52nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 16th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in Putting, 32nd in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Bogie Avoidance

Cameron Young: 8800: +3500 – Finished 59th his only time here last year, 62,9,2,54,36,4,16,8,70,33,38,54,15,31,MC,8,6 finishes in his last 17 events, 16th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 21st in Driving Distance, 2nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 38th in Proximity 200+ yards, 30th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 57th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 31st in Par 5 scoring, 56th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 38th in Bogie Avoidance

Byeong Hun An: 8100: +4500 – MC,MC,63 finishes here, 4,67,16,MC,MC,8,21,16,66,31,2,4,43,37,2,23,3 finishes in his last 17 events, 30th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Driving Distance, 9th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 6th in Proximity 200+ yards, 5th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 41st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 35th in Par 5 scoring, 50th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 64th in Bogie Avoidance

Will Zalatoris: 7900: +4500 – Didn’t play last week due to a back injury but seems to be back and we’re getting a better price on him because of that, MC his only time here in 2021, has played well since his return from injury this year with 44,9,74,MC,4,2,13,24 finishes in his last eight events, 11th in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 37th in Driving Distance, 4th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 14th in Proximity 200+ yards, 25th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 64th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 65th in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained, 50th in Bogie Avoidance

Corey Conners: 7800: +6000 – He’s fantastic off the tee which should give him success, 8,43,42 finishes here, 44,38,25,13,18,41,24,28,31,57,33,44,26,10,6,52,19,9 finishes in his last 17 events, 2nd in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 30th in Driving Distance, 14th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 57th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 50th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 25th in Par 5 scoring, 66th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 33rd in Bogie Avoidance

Akshay Bhatia: 7500: +5500 – Won a few weeks ago at Valero, 43,MC finishes his two times here, 18,35,1,11,17 finishes in his last five events after a string of missed cuts, 6th in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 40th in Driving Distance, 32nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 15th in Proximity 200+ yards, 65th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 4th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 18th in Par 5 scoring, 28th in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 19th in Bogie Avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Driving Distance (10%)

Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)

Proximity 200+ yards (15%)

Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards (5%)

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (5%)

Par 5 scoring (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• Rory and Xander are my two favorite players in the field this week to win, but at +650 and +900, I don’t think either of them are worth betting, so I’m fading them both

Bets

Outrights

.6u Wyndham Clark (+1700)

.4u Sahith Theegala (+3000)

.3u Cameron Young (+3500)

.3u Will Zalatoris (+4500)

.3u Byeong Hun An (+4500)

.2u Akshay Bhatia (+5500)

.2u Corey Conners (+6000)

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