This week all the best golfers in the world on both tours get together at Valhalla in Louisville for the second major of the year for the PGA Championship.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7609 yards, Jack Nicklaus design, the tee boxes and fairways have been changed from the bentgrass they were in 2014 to Zeon Zoysia grass which is a lot firmer and faster and will negate the longer, all three of the Par 5s are score able, all four of the Par 3s are difficult and are all over 190 yards, seven Par 4s are between 450-510 yards, there’s two short Par 4s under 400 yards (neither are drivable), average to above average width tree lined fairways with bunkers in the landing areas but the trees are pretty far off from the fairway and with the thick rough it will be tough to get there, rough will be 4 inches and gnarly and tough to get out of, water in play on seven holes, bombers have an advantage here, very small and fast bentgrass greens with a bit of undulation, bunkers and thick rough guard the greens
Tournament Notes
- This course has previously hosted the PGA Championship three times (1996, 2000, 2014) with Rory winning over Phil the last time it was here. It also hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup, and the 2004 and 2011 Senior PGA Championships
- Cut line is Top 70 and ties rather than the typical Top 65 of most other events
- A lot of PGA of America (not PGA Tour) professionals and Champions Tour golfers are in the field that you can immediately just cross off
- I’m not including stats for the two guys on the LIV Tour that I’m using this week. The stats I can get are from their PGA Tour starts over a year ago since we don’t get strokes gained data from the LIV Tour, so I’m going more off feel on those guys
- Every PGA Championship winner since 2006 has made the cut the week before winning
- Besides Phil in 2021, who finished 69th in his even the week before (but was first round leader and 10th after 36 holes), every other winner since 2006 finished T28 or better the week prior
Key Stats
SG: OTT, Approach, Driving Distance, Par 5 Scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (33.6%)
Field
154 golfers – elite field with all of the best PGA Tour and LIV Golf players in the world, along with a bunch of Sr. champs and PGA of America Professionals
Defending Champion (Oak Hill): Brooks Koepka (-9)
Runner Up Last Year (Oak Hill): Viktor Hovland & Scottie Scheffler (-7)
2014 Champion (Valhalla): Rory McIlroy (-16)
2014 Runner Up Last Year (Valhalla): Phil Mickelson (-15)
One and Done: Bryson DeChambeau
One and Done Considerations: Brooks, Scottie, Rory, Bryson, Rahm, Wyndham
Players
Brooks Koepka: 10800: +1600 – By far the best major champion we’ve seen since Tiger with 5 major wins with three PGA Championship wins and he’s the defending champion, 3rd in driving distance here in 2014 where he finished 14th, coming off on LIV in Singapore with 1,T9,T45,28,T12 finishes on LIV this season, 49th in Approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 22nd in Driving Distance, 20th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 27th in Par 5 Scoring, 61st in Proximity 200+ yards, 44th in SG: ARG, 23rd in Putting, 100th in Opportunities Gained, 54th in Bogie Avoidance
Bryson DeChambeau: 9600: +2800 – Popped at the Masters this year where he finished 6th at a course that I don’t think suits him well, 4,38,4,MC,MC,33 finishes at PGA Championship, T25,T9,4,T6,T7,T26,T27 finished on LIV this season, 98th in Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 7th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 69th in Par 5 Scoring, 39th in Proximity 200+ yards, 128th in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 38th in Opportunities Gained, 68th in Bogie Avoidance
Wyndham Clark: 9500: +4500 – He has won three times in the past 12 months with a bunch of runners up in high end events to Scheffler, won his first major at the US Open last year, 47,3,MC,31,2,2,MC,41,1,39,29,3,15,66,33,25,29,1,29 finishes in his last 19 events, MC,75,MC finishes at the last three PGA Championships, 33rd in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 6th in Driving Distance, 30th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 14th in Par 5 Scoring, 99th in Proximity 200+ yards, 48th in SG: ARG, 9th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 37th in Bogie Avoidance
Hideki Matsuyama: 8600: +7500 – If he wasn’t injured his price would be way lower than it is and I think he’s worth a bet before, former major champion with a Masters win, finished 35th here in 2014 with 29,60,23,22,16,35,5,4,37,35,19 finishes at PGA Championship, 38,7,6,12,1,22,71,13,30,58,51,16 finishes in his last twelve events, 19th in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 63rd in Driving Distance, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 15th in Par 5 Scoring, 24th in Proximity 200+ yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 131st in Putting, 37th in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Bogie Avoidance
Keegan Bradley: 7100: +22000 – I think he’s a solid value play despite not thinking he will win, former PGA Championship winner back in 2011, missed the cut here in 2014 with 29,48,17,MC,29,42,33,42,61,MC,19,3,1 finishes at PGA Championships, won last season at the Travelers, 21,55,22,MC,MC,36,MC,11,42,2,45,19,9,29 finishes in his last 14 events, 28th in Approach, 98th in SG: OTT, 59th in Driving Distance, 122nd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 31st in Par 5 Scoring, 28th in Proximity 200+ yards, 43rd in SG: ARG, 134th in Putting, 27th in Opportunities Gained, 101st in Bogie Avoidance, also taking his T5
Model
Approach (15%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I’ve hit multiple winners on this event in the past (including Brooks last year and both previous times he won it)
- I think this tournament is realistically getting won by one of three golfers…Scottie, Rory, and Brooks. I considered for the first time betting Scottie for the sole purpose of just breaking even, but I don’t think it’s worth it. That’s like taking insurance on a dealer showing an ace. Fuck it.
- As usual with majors, LIV golfers stats are skewed since they only include majors and events before they went to LIV since LIV doesn’t have strokes gained data
Bets
Outrights
1.5u Brooks Koepka (+1600)
.4u Bryson DeChambeau (+2800)
.3u Wyndham Clark (+4500)
.2u Hideki Matsuyama (+7500)
.1u Keegan Bradley (+22000)
T5s
.1u Keegan Bradley (+3000)
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