I closed out my bad second round of the NHL Playoffs with a nice 3 unit win on Monday night as the Oilers controlled most of the game to eliminate the Canucks and advance to the Western Conference Finals. Tonight the Eastern Conference Finals begin with Game 1 of Rangers vs. Panthers in MSG.
Game 1 – Rangers vs. Panthers (8:00)
Tonight the Eastern Conference Finals begin with a fantastic matchup between the President’s Trophy winning New York Rangers and the Atlantic Division winning Florida Panthers. Both of these teams had awesome regular seasons, leading the way the entire year in the East. They both easily won their first round series but showed their vulnerabilities at times in their second round series. I expect this to be an awesome series that goes back and forth and stays competitive to determine who will advance to the Cup Finals out of the East. Both of these teams can absolutely win the Stanley Cup, but neither is my pick to win it. I broke this series down in depth earlier today. As I said in that blog, I feel like this is going to be a great series and I see both teams trading wins, with this likely going seven games. I was a bit surprised that the Panthers are the favorite in this series, and I’d lean the Rangers are the more complete team that ends up winning the series. I don’t think its worth betting on though and think the better move on betting the sides of this series is betting it game to game. I do like the series to go six or seven games though and although its expensive at -188, I’ll take the series to go over 5.5 games for 2 units. That play has been a sweat every time I’ve bet it these playoffs, which I probably should’ve just let ride a bunch of times rather than trying to hedge, but it has been profitable. I’d lean the Rangers win Game 1 at home tonight, despite Florida being the better team between them in the regular season, but I’ll stay off Game 1 entirely. I considered the team totals for both teams, both at -145 for 2.5, but I’ll just stay off it. I’d slightly lean this series ends up having the games trending under with the fantastic goaltending battle of Shesterkin vs. Bobrovsky. The Panthers trended under to a significant margin in the regular season, going 49-29-4. Rangers games in the regular season trended over, with the over going 42-35-5. In the playoffs, neither of these teams have really trended in either direction through their first two rounds, with the over going 6-4 in the Rangers ten games and the 6-5 in the Panthers eleven games. All three regular season games between these teams went over the 5.5, but play always tightens up in the playoffs. I’ll stay off the total in Game 1 and evaluate how it goes before Game 2. I likely will also look at some player props including on the goalies after I see how this first game plays out.
Game Bets
None
Series Bets
2u Panthers/Rangers series over 5.5 games (-188)
Futures
4u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+850)
Regular Season Record: 599-527-12 (-95.22 units)
Round 1 Record: 61-44 (+24.2 units)
Round 2 Record: 17-36-1 (-26.22 units)
Round 3 Record: 0-0 (0 units)
Futures Record: 0-2 (-7 units)
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A Town's Zone 