Tonight the Eastern Conference Finals begin with a fantastic matchup between the President’s Trophy winning New York Rangers and the Atlantic Division winning Florida Panthers. Both of these teams had awesome regular seasons, leading the way the entire year in the East. They both easily won their first round series but showed their vulnerabilities at times in their second round series. I expect this to be an awesome series that goes back and forth and stays competitive to determine who will advance to the Cup Finals out of the East. Both of these teams can absolutely win the Stanley Cup, but neither is my pick to win it. The puck drops for Game 1 tonight at 8:00 pm EST in Madison Square Garden.

Although the Rangers were the better team during the regular season, Panthers won the regular season series between these teams, going 2-1-1. They won the first game 4-3 in a close, competitive game in Florida on December 29th. Then they won 4-2 on the road in MSG on March 4th in the second game with Sam Reinhart scoring twice in less than three minutes. The Rags avoided the season sweep with a 4-3 shootout win at home on March 23rd.

The New York Rangers had a fantastic season this year, finishing the year with the best record in the NHL and winning the President’s Trophy as they went 55-23-4 as they set a franchise record for most points in a season. Besides a brief slump in January where they went on a four game losing streak, they didn’t lose more than two games in a row all year.

The Rangers were the only team to sweep their opponent in the first round, making easy work of the Capitals, dominating them for a 4-0 series win. They won Game 1 dominating the whole game for a 4-1 win. The Caps played their best game in Game 2, but the Rags still got a 4-3 win, then as the series shifted to Washington, New York got a 3-1 win in Game 3 before closing it out with a 4-2 win in Game 4. Such easy money.

In the second round we had a great matchup in the Metro between the top two teams in the East in the Rangers vs. Hurricanes. The Rangers got out to a 3-0 series lead and looked to be in control, but faltered a bit, as the Canes pushed it to Game 6. Every game in the series was competitive and closely played with late game magic for both teams to get wins. In Game 1, the Rags got out to an early 3-1 lead in the first period and rode that to the 4-3 win at home. Game 2 was the longest game of the playoffs so far and I thought the Canes were the better team outshooting the Rags 57-39, but with great goaltending from Shesterkin, the Rangers went up 2-0 in the series with Vinny Trocheck’s game winner on a controversial power play 7:24 into double overtime. New York was once again outplayed in Game 3, getting outshot 47-25, but Shesterkin kept them in it again. After the Hurricanes tied the game with 1:36 left in regulation, the Rangers stole Game 3 on Artemi Panarin’s game winner in overtime to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. At that point with the way they couldn’t get a win, down 3-0 in the series, I thought this would end up like last year where the Canes got swept while still playing well, but they avoided the sweep in Game 4. Carolina blew a 3-1 first period lead, but got late game heroics with a Brady Skjei power play goal to win the game 4-3 with 3:11 left in regulation, forcing Game 5. The Hurricanes forced Game 6 with a four goal third period to win 4-1, but the Rangers had their own third period magic in Game 6 to win the series. The Canes looked to be in control to force Game 7, going into the third period up 3-1 until Chris Kreider took over in the third period, scoring a natural hat trick to win the game, with Barclay Goodrow capping the series off with an empty netter with 59 seconds left. So although Carolina was the better team in several of the first few games of the series, the Rags found ways to win and advance.

In the regular season, statistically the Rags were very good on both ends of the ice this year. They were the seventh highest scoring team in the league this year, averaging 3.39 goals per game on an average of 31.5 shots per game. New York generated the eleventh-most expected goals per game (3.22) and the 15th-most high danger shots in the league. The Rangers power play was very good too, ranking third in the league as they scored on 26.4% of their chances. Artemi Panarin had a great year, leading the Rangers in scoring with 120 points, 49 goals, and 71 assists.

Defensively New York was fantastic too. They allowed an average of 2.76 goals per game, the seventh-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 29.5 shots allowed per game. The Rangers gave up the 13th-fewest expected goals per game (3) and the tenth-fewest high danger shots. Their penalty kill was the third best in the league, killing penalties at an 84.5% rate. Igor Shesterkin led the way in gaol, with a 36-17-2 year, with a 2.58 GAA, a .913 save percentage, and four shutouts. Veteran backup Jonathan Quick was solid behind him with an 18-6-2 record, a 2.62 GAA, and a .911 save percentage, with two shutouts.

The Rangers were fantastic offensively through their first two rounds of the playoffs. They scored an average of 3.5 goals per game, the fourth-most of playoff teams. Their power play’s been the third-best, scoring on 31.4% of their opportunities. Defensively New York’s been good too, allowing an average of 2.6 goals per game, the seventh-fewest of playoff teams, and third-fewest of the teams remaining. Their penalty kill has been fantastic, ranking second at 89.5%.

Following their Eastern Conference Championship win last season, the Florida Panthers had a really good season. They finished the year a point ahead of Boston for first place in the Atlantic with a 52-24-6 record. Florida’s headed into the playoffs hot, on a six game point streak and four game win streak after ending the season with a 5-2 win against the Leafs on Tuesday.

For the first time in franchise history, the Florida Panthers defeated their in state rival Lightning in the first round, taking down Tampa in five games. The Cats won both of the first two games at home against the Bolts 3-2, but were the far better team in both of those games, winning Game 1 in regulation and then needing overtime but getting the win again. When the series shifted to Tampa for Game 3, Bobrovsky and Tkachuk led the way to a 5-3 win to take a commanding 3-0 lead. The Lightning were the better team in Game 4 at home, avoid the season sweep with a 6-3 win. As the series shifted back to Lauderdale for Game 5, the Panthers dominated in a 6-1 blowout to close out the Bolts and get some rest while they awaited the Bruins and Leafs beating up on each other.

In the second round in a rematch of the crazy comeback win in the first round, the Panthers defeated the Boston Bruins for the second season in a row, winning the series in six games. I was pretty shocked by the final score of Game 1 of their series, a game that was much more competitive than the final 5-1 score. Although the Panthers outshot the Bruins 39-29, Jeremy Swayman was fantastic in goal on the road and with some excellently placed shots, the Bruins got the 5-1 blowout win coming off their Game 7 victory against Toronto. The Panthers bounced back in way more dominant fashion in Game 2, limiting Boston to just 15 shots on goal, outshooting the B’s 33-15 on their way to a 6-1 blowout win of their own to tie the series heading back to Boston. Florida took back home ice in the series with another blowout in Game 3 in similar fashion, with a 6-2 win on the road as they outshot the Bruins 33-17. Jeremy Swayman kept the Bruins in Game 4 despite the Panthers dominating. Boston got out to a 2-0 lead in the first period, but Florida came back to win 3-2 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead as they outshot the B’s by a significant margin again, 41-18. The Bruins avoided elimination in Game 5 in a close game, with Swayman keeping them in it again, as the Bruins won 2-1 on the road to force Game 6. Game 6 was very close as well, but with a late goal with just 1:33 left in regulation by Gustav Forsling, Florida eliminated Boston once again with a 2-1 win on the road.

Statistically Florida was good on both ends of the ice. Offensively they averaged 3.23 goals per game, eleventh-most in the NHL, on an average of 33.7 shots per game, the second-most in the league, only behind Edmonton by a fraction of a shot per game. The Panthers generated the second-most expected goals (3.67) and the second-most high danger shots in the NHL. Their power play ranked ninth in the league, scoring on 23.5% of their chances. Sam Reinhart led the offense with the best year of his career, scoring 57 goals and 94 points, while Matthew Tkachuk led the team in assists with 62.

Defensively the Panthers were the best team in the NHL this season, allowing an average of just 2.42 goals per game, on the third-fewest shots allowed, an average of just 27.8 per game. Florida gave up the fifth-fewest expected goals per game (2.78) in the league and the eleventh-fewest high danger shots. Their penalty kill was great, ranking sixth in the NHL, killing penalties at an 82.5% rate. Sergei Bobrovsky, who was the horse that led Florida through their Eastern Conference Championship run last year, was fantastic again this year. In the regular season he went 36-17-4 with a 2.37 GAA, a .915 save percentage, and six shutouts.

Florida has been very good on both ends of the ice through the first two rounds. The Panthers offense has scored the third-most goals of playoff teams, averaging 3.55 goals per game. Their power play has struggled a bit though, at 22%. Defensively they’ve been solid as well, allowing an average of 2.46 goals per game, the fifth-fewest of playoff teams and second-fewest of the four teams remaining. Their penalty kill at 86.1% is the third-best of the playoffs.

I feel like this is going to be a great series and I see both teams trading wins, with this likely going seven games. I was a bit surprised that the Panthers are the favorite in this series, and I’d lean the Rangers are the more complete team that ends up winning the series. I don’t think its worth betting on though and think the better move on betting the sides of this series is betting it game to game. I do like the series to go six or seven games though and although its expensive at -188, I’ll take the series to go over 5.5 games for 2 units. That play has been a sweat every time I’ve bet it these playoffs, which I probably should’ve just let ride a bunch of times rather than trying to hedge, but it has been profitable.

I’d lean the Rangers win Game 1 at home tonight, despite Florida being the better team between them in the regular season, but I’ll stay off Game 1 entirely. I considered the team totals for both teams, both at -145 for 2.5, but I’ll just stay off it.

I’d slightly lean this series ends up having the games trending under with the fantastic goaltending battle of Shesterkin vs. Bobrovsky. The Panthers trended under to a significant margin in the regular season, going 49-29-4. Rangers games in the regular season trended over, with the over going 42-35-5. In the playoffs, neither of these teams have really trended in either direction through their first two rounds, with the over going 6-4 in the Rangers ten games and the 6-5 in the Panthers eleven games. All three regular season games between these teams went over the 5.5, but play always tightens up in the playoffs. I’ll stay off the total in Game 1 and evaluate how it goes before Game 2.

Series Bets

2u Panthers/Rangers series over 5.5 games (-188)

Game 1 Bets

None

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