Fun week at the PGA Championship last week and with Bryson finishing second that was the third T3 finish for me in my picks in the last three weeks in a row. This week the PGA heads back to Texas to the longest running event on tour at Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7289 yards, seven Par 4s range from 400-450 yards, three of the Par 3s range from 175-200 yards, one of the Par 5s is reachable by the entire field and the other is reachable by longer hitters but the Par 5s are both some of the hardest Par 5s on Tour while being the easiest holes on the course, 84 bunkers, four water hazards, Bermuda fairways and rough, tight tree lined fairways with bunkers in play on pretty much every tee shot, rough isn’t too high but wirey so it’s tough to hit out of, harder than average fairways to hit (~57% vs. tour average ~62%), most golfers will go less than driver on a lot of holes (average driving distance 278 yards vs. tour average 284), plotters course where accuracy and shot placement matters more than distance with precision more important, a lot of doglegs with 7 of the 11 favoring a left to right ball flight, slightly below average GIR % (~64% vs. tour average ~66%), this course has the lowest GIR % inside 150 yards on tour, small pure bentgrass greens with some undulation, lot of bunkers around the green especially in front of them, weather plays a big factor here with the winning score fluctuating between -21 and -8 in the last 13 years, the greens have been renovated for this year and could be bouncier and faster than usual along with some bunkers being removed and some tee boxes being moved
Tournament Notes
- Formerly called the Fort Worth Invitational and the Dean & DeLuca Invitational and several other names before those
- This is typically an invitational sized field but is a bit expanded with a full field this season
- The longest running course on the PGA Tour, having been played every year since 1946
- Experience and course history matter here, the winners of this event since 2001 have averaged seven appearances here prior to their win
- Only eight golfers in 70 years have gotten their maiden victory here
- Since Sergio won in 2001 at age 22, just Jordan Spieth in 2016, Daniel Berger in 2020, and Sam Burns last year were the only golfers under age 30 to win here
- Besides Justin Rose in 2018 (on his first time here), Daniel Berger in 2020 (T53 the year previous), Sam Burns in 2023 (hadn’t played since a T31 finish in 2019), and Emiliano Grillo last year (who did have an 8th place finish two years prior and a 3rd place finish in 2018), every winner since 2014 has finished T15 or better the year previous here
- SG: Approach is more than twice as impactful than OTT and ATG for Top 10/Top 5 finishes, and 3x more impactful on the winner
- Any skill set could win here and a lot of plotters have won here before but there could be an advantage to bomb and gauge the course and tear it up
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, SG: ARG
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.6%), 125-150 yards (20.7%)
Corollary Courses
- Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
- Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship)
- Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship)
- Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open)
- Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
Field
132 golfers – Scheffler, Morikawa, Homa, and a pretty huge drop off in talent after that
Defending Champion: Emiliano Grillo (-8 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Adam Schenk (-8)
One and Done: Lucas Glover (I’m so out of it so I have to take some riskier shots)
One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Tom Hoge, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Lucas Glover
Players
Collin Morikawa: 11000: +1400 – Played great last week at the PGA especially with his irons until he did nothing on Sunday, 29,40,14,2 finishes in his four times here, 4,16,9,3,75,45,MC,19,14,MC,5,1,6,25,13,MC,2 finishes in his last 17 events, 48th in Approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 7th in Good Drives, 19th in Par 4 scoring, 56th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 19th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 25th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 16th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 17th in SG: ARG, 102nd in Putting, 37th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Birdie+ Gained, 17th in Bogey Avoidance
Tony Finau: 9900: +3000 – Ballstriking was the best in the field in approach at the PGA last week, solid history here with MC,4,20,23,2,29,34,19 finishes here playing every year since 2015, 18,52,12,55,2,MC,45,13,19,47,6,25,38,20,37,64,7 finishes in his last 17 events, 3rd in Approach, 43rd in SG: OTT, 36th in Good Drives, 24th in Par 4 scoring, 66th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 85th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 46th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 20th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 43rd in SG: ARG, 109th in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 21st in Birdie+ Gained, 45th in Bogey Avoidance
Tom Hoge: 9300: +4500 – Third in my model this week and has been playing solid golf this season, 23,38,41,18,14,54,12,28,8,17,6,56,17 finishes in his last 13 events, 52,MC,MC,MC,40,42,17 finishes here, 2nd in Approach, 79th in SG: OTT, 12th in Good Drives, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 27th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 15th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 8th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 11th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 106th in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 15th in Bogey Avoidance
Akshay Bhatia: 7900: +6000 – Has already won this year a few weeks ago in Texas at Valero, finished 56 his only time here last year, MC,42,18,35,1,11,17 finishes in his last seven events after a string of missed cuts, 4th in Approach, 55th in SG: OTT, 29th in Good Drives, 30th in Par 4 scoring, 23rd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 10th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 18th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 3rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 72nd in SG: ARG, 37th in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 31st in Birdie+ Gained, 40th in Bogey Avoidance
Lucas Glover: 7500: +7000 – Maps out fantastic this week for this course and is second only to Scottie in my model, 40,8,23,MC,MC,43,MC,MC,40,44 finishes here, 43,16,33,20,25,11,MC,30,35,35,58,MC,29,45,59,18,22,1,1,MC,5,6,4 finishes in his last 23 events, 8th in Approach, 53rd in SG: OTT, 9th in Good Drives, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 99th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 5th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 7th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 3rd in SG: ARG, 121st in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 46th in Birdie+ Gained, 24th in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 4 scoring (5%)
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogey Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- On DK Showdown slates, you’re better off stacking guys that start on the back nine for the wrap around of Holes 17,18,1,2 for 3+ birdie streak
- I considered betting Scottie this week, but there’s never going to be a golf tournament where a guy is worth +260
Bets
Outrights
1u Collin Morikawa (+1400)
.4u Tony Finau (+3000)
.3u Tom Hoge (+4500)
.2u Akshay Bhatia (+6000)
.2u Lucas Glover (+7000)
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