Tonight the Western Conference Finals begin with a pretty popular pick with a matchup between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers. Both of these teams had very good seasons and we have a very deep team in the Stars that don’t have many flaws going against the best player in the world, Connor McDavid, and his Oilers. The puck drops for Game 1 tonight at 8:30 EST at American Airlines Center down in Dallas.

During the regular season this year, the Stars went 2-0-1 against the Oilers. They won the first game 4-3 on the road on November 2nd, despite getting outshot 49-27. In a closer game that saw six second period goals, the Oilers won 4-3 in overtime on the road in Dallas on Evan Bouchard’s power play game winner the second time these teams played on February 17th. Dallas dominated the final game on April 3rd, winning a 5-0 shutout at home with Jake Oettinger making 35 saves.

Dallas had a fantastic season, with a 52-21-9 record as the best team in the Western Conference, finishing the year a point behind the Rangers for the President’s Trophy. The Stars had an awesome end to the season, winning the Central by three points over the Jets. They headed into the playoffs on a 12-2 run in their last 14 games.

The Stars took down the defending Cup Champion Golden Knights in the first round of the playoffs in a series that I said would determine the Cup Champion. It’s still nuts to me that two of the best contenders had to face each other in the first round, but alas, Dallas advanced in seven games in an awesome series. Vegas looked to be the better team to open the series, as they won Game 1 4-3 and Game 2 3-1 in Dallas, and I thought the series was going to be over quickly. The Stars took over though as the series shifted to Vegas. They won 3-2 in overtime in Game 3 and then 4-2 in Game before. They took their first series lead with the first home win of the series, winning 3-2 at home in Game 5. The Knights avoided elimination in Game 6 with a 2-0 shutout win, but the Stars ended the series and knocked off Vegas with a 2-1 win in Game 7.

In the second round, the Stars played an interesting matchup against the Avalanche. In Game 1, Dallas got out to a 3-0 lead in the first period, but gave that away, blowing that lead and giving up four unanswered goals to lose 4-3 in overtime at home. Game 2 was similar, as the Stars went into the third period with a 4-0 lead. It looked like they were going to blow that lead again, as the Avs scored three in a row in the third period before Esa Lindell ended the game with an empty net goal to even the series going to Colorado with a 5-3 win. Once the series shifted to Colorado, the Stars took over. They were the better team in Game 3, winning 4-1 on the road and then dominated even more with a 5-1 blowout win in Game 4, taking a stranglehold on the series. The Avalanche avoided elimination in Game 5 in Dallas with a bit 5-3 win, scoring three goals in the third period. The Stars ended the series, winning twice in Game 6 on the road in Colorado to advance. Going into overtime tied 1-1, they got the game winner called back on a bullshit goaltender interference call, but Matt Duchene ended it in double overtime capped off with the heartbreaker celly.

The Stars were very good on both ends of the ice this year. They have the third-highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.59 goals per game on an average of 31.6 shots per game. They’ve generated the seventh-most expected goals per game (3.41) and the seventh-most high danger shots. Their power play is the sixth-best in the league, capitalizing at a 24.2% rate. Jason Robertson (80 points, 51 assists) and rookie Wyatt Johnston (32 goals) led them in scoring this year.

Dallas was very good defensively too. They’ve allowed an average of 2.83 goals per game, the eighth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 28.7 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up just the third-fewest expected goals per game (2.72) and the second-fewest high danger shots. The Stars penalty kill at 82% ranked them eighth-best in the NHL. Jake Oettinger was solid in goal this year, with a 35-14-4 record, a 2.72 GAA, a .905 save percentage, and three shutouts. I wouldn’t say that’s a great stat line, but when he turns it on, he’s a stud in goal.

The Stars have continued to play well both offensively and especially defensively through their first two rounds of the playoffs. They’ve scored an average of 2.92 goals per game, the seventh-most of the 16 teams that made playoffs, but the fewest of the four teams remaining. Their power play has been solid, scoring on 29% of their chances. Defensively Dallas has been fantastic, allowing an average of just 2.39 goals per game. They’ve struggled a bit on the penalty kill at just 69.2%.

Edmonton had a solid season, finishing in second in the Pacific with a 49-27-6 record and a real good 28-9-4 record at home. They started the year horrible, with a 2-9-1 first month of the season, but after firing head coach Jay Woodcroft they picked it up and never looked back. They ended the year a bit cold though with just one win in their last five regular season games.

The Oilers dominated the Kings in the first round of the playoffs, winning it in five games, with the only loss coming in overtime. They opened the series with a huge 7-4 win at home in Game 1, with all of their stars contributing, including Zach Hyman’s first playoff hat trick and a five assist night for Connor McDavid. The Kings answered back to tie the series in Game 2. LA got out to a 3-1 lead in the first period. The Oilers came back twice in that game to take it to overtime, but Anze Kopitar got the 5-4 win on the road in OT. Edmonton bounced back in dominant fashion in Game 3, blowing out the Kings 6-1 to take back home ice in the series. They followed it up with a grind of a game in Game 4, with Stuart Skinner getting a shutout in a 1-0 win on the road to take a 3-1 series lead back home to Edmonton for Game 5. The Oilers closed out the series with a 4-3 win at home on the back of a big three goal second period.

I expected the Oilers to make relatively quick work of the Vancouver Canucks in the second wrong but I was quite wrong, as it was the only second round series to go seven games, with Edmonton playing from behind in the series several times. Edmonton looked good to start Game 1, but blew a 4-1 lead to lose 5-4 in Vancouver. The Oilers bounced back in Game 2 on the road, outshooting the Canucks 31-19 on their way to a 4-3 overtime win capped off by Evan Bouchard’s game winner to tie the series heading back to Edmonton. In Game 3, the Oilers outshot the Canucks 45-18 but with horrendous goaltending from Stuart Skinner, they lost 4-3 at home. Edmonton answered back in a pretty close game to tie the series up at home in Game 4, winning 3-2 on Evan Bouchard’s game winner with 39 seconds left in regulation. The Canucks were the better team in Game 5 back home in Vancouver though, and got their own late game magic, winning 3-2 on J.T. Miller’s game winner with 33 seconds left, outshooting the Oilers 35-23 to put Edmonton a game away from elimination. Edmonton had their most dominant game of the series in Game 6, outshooting the Canucks 27-15 to force Game 7 with a 5-1 blowout win. The Oilers kept it rolling in Game 7, going up 3-0 in the second period as they were the clear cut better team and then hanging on with a sweaty end of the game to advance to the Western Conference Finals with a 3-2 win on the road.

Led by the greatest hockey player in the world in Connor McDavid, the Oilers offense was fantastic, fourth in the league in scoring, averaging 3.56 goals per game on an average of 31.9 shots per game. They lead the NHL in expected goals per game (3.74) and had the most high danger shots. Edmonton had the league’s fourth-best power play, clicking at a 26.3% rate. McDavid became the fourth player in NHL history to get to 100 assists, the first player since Mario in the early 90s to hit 100 in a 132 point season. Zach Hyman had a career year with 54 tip in goals.

Edmonton wasn’t bad defensively whatsoever either, much improved from last year. They allowed an average of 2.88 goals per game, the tenth-fewest in the NHL on an average of 28.1 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up just the fourth-fewest expected goals per game (2.78) and the third-fewest high danger shots. The Oilers killed off 79.5% of their penalties. I’m still not sold on Stuart Skinner, who had a 36-16-5 record, a 2.62 GAA, a .905 save percentage, and two shutout this year.

Although the Oilers goaltending and defense has struggled at times, their offense has been fantastic. Edmonton’s second in scoring of all playoff teams, and first of the four teams remaining, averaging 3.83 goals per game. Their power play continues to be incredible, scoring on 37.5% of their chances, first in the playoffs. No surprise when you have Connor, Leon, and Hyman on that first PP. Defensively though they’ve had their issues. Stuart Skinner has been statistically the worst goaltender in Oilers playoff history. Edmonton’s allowed an average of 2.75 goals per game, the most of the four teams remaining in the playoffs. The penalty kill has been very good, leading the playoffs at 91.4%.

Going into the playoffs I said that the winner of the Stars and Golden Knights series in the first round (still such a shame that it was the first round) and I still stand by that. I have great value on them to win the Cup at +850 for four units. I think they pretty easily get through the Oilers. Edmonton’s defense and goaltending blows and they struggled against a team that’s not nearly as deep and talented as Dallas is. The price on this series is cheaper than I expected it to be at -125, and I’m going to double down on the Stars here and take them to win the series for 3 units. McDavid, Draisaitl, and Hyman don’t scare me with Stuart Skinner between the pipes.

Expecting Dallas to win the series, I like them to win Game 1 at home, and I’ll take them for a unit, along with half a unit on the puck line.

I feel like the totals in this series are pretty close to a crapshoot. These teams have trended in opposite directions. In the three regular season games between these teams, two of them hit the over. The Stars slightly trended over in the regular season, with the over going 42-39-1 but they’ve trended under in the playoffs, with the under going 8-5 in the first two rounds in their games. The Oilers were the opposite, trending under in the regular season, with the under going 43-36-3, but have trended over in the playoffs, with their games going 7-4-1 against the Kings and Canucks. I’d slightly lean the overs, but I’ll stay off the total in Game 1.

Futures

4u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+850)

Series Bets

3u Stars to win the series (-125)

Game 1 Bets

1u Stars ML (-130)

.5u Stars -1.5 (+195)

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