This week the PGA Tour heads up North to Hamilton, Ontario for the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7,084 yards, 88 bunkers, nine water hazards, both Par 5s should be reachable in two by most golfers, all the Par 3s are long and hard, most of the Par 4s are short (only one is longer than 450 yards), narrow tree lined fairways with 3-4 inch rough, driving accuracy is below tour average (~55% vs. ~62%), slower than average small bentgrass greens that were expanded on the renovations, some renovations to the course since 2019 including new grass on the greens and tee boxes
Tournament Notes
- This tournament changes courses on a regular basis
- The last time this course hosted this event was in 2019 when Rory won and was previously played in 2012 (Scott Piercy), 2006 (Jim Furyk) and 2003 (Bob Tway)
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, Opportunities Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (26.5%)
Field
156 golfers – pretty weak field after Rory
Defending Champion (Oakdale): Nick Taylor (-17 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year (Oakdale): Tony Finau (-17)
One and Done: Sahith Theegala
One and Done Considerations: Rory, Theegala
Players
Sahith Theegala: 10500: +2100 – First in my model even ahead of Rory, 12,52,2,45,28,9,6,37,5,20,64,MC,2,MC,19 finishes in his last 18 events, 15th in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 16th in Proximity 200+ yards, 135th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 44th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance
Alex Noren: 9900: +2500 – Great form coming in and feels like a great course fit, finished 63rd here in 2019, 12,24,3,23,14,11,19,9,53,26,25,42,23,2,48,3 finishes in his last 16 events, 8th in Approach, 28th in SG: OTT, 20th in Par 3 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 123rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 3rd in SG: ARG, 55th in Putting, 83rd in Opportunities Gained, 41st in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance
Cameron Young: 9800: +2800 – Maps out nice statistically, 63,34,62,9,2,54,36,4,16,8 finishes in his last ten events, 16th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 37th in Par 3 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 89th in Proximity 200+ yards, 121st in SG: ARG, 71st in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 50th in Bogie Avoidance
Corey Conners: 9500: +2200 – Fantastic T2G game, MC’d here in 2019, 26,13,44,38,25,13,18,41,24,28 finishes in his last ten events, 1st in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 21st in Par 3 Scoring, 39th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 10th in Proximity 200+ yards, 129th in SG: ARG, 124th in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 23rd in Birdie+ Gained, 29th in Bogie Avoidance
Aaron Rai: 8900: +4500 – His stats still pop so I’m still continuing to bet him, 32,39,4,MC,58,7,MC,35,23,19 finishes in his last ten events, 3rd in Approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 41st in Par 3 Scoring, 19th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 56th in SG: ARG, 105th in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained, 86th in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogie Avoidance
Akshay Bhatia: 8100: +5500 – I keep riding him since his win even though his form has been lousy since the win, MC,MC,42,18,35,1,11,17 finishes in his last eight events, 4th in Approach, 37th in SG: OTT, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 36th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 11th in Proximity 200+ yards, 72nd in SG: ARG, 32nd in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 30th in Birdie+ Gained, 46th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I hit 3 T10s (2,3,8) when this course last hosted this event in 2019
- Rory should win…no fucking shot at +360
Bets
Outrights
.5u Sahith Theegala (+2100)
.5u Corey Conners (+2200)
.4u Alex Noren (+2500)
.4u Cameron Young (+2800)
.3u Aaron Rai (+4500)
.2u Akshay Bhatia (+5500)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 