This week the PGA Tour heads to Jack’s Place at Muirfield Village in Columbus for the Memorial, a signature event with a cut to lead into the US Open next week.
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7569 yards, Jack Nicklaus designed, the Par 5s are reachable in two but have the second lowest going for the green percentage on tour besides Colonial, six of the seven most difficult holes are Par 4s between 450-500 yards, bent grass fairways and greens, tree lined easy to hit fairways (~69%) with deep fairway bunkers that are penal (only about 40% of golfers that hit fairway bunkers make par), the fairways get more narrow around the 300 yard mark, 68 bunkers, 13 water hazards that are in play on eleven holes, water is placed in tricky spots with creeks running through the course with some on entire holes, less than driver course that favors placement for approach shots and this course ranks in bottom 10 courses on tour in driving distance but high driving accuracy vs. tour average (~68% vs. 62%), difficult to hit out of thick 3-4.5 inch rough, longest proximity inside 100 yards from the rough of any course on tour, harder than average greens to hit (~61% vs. tour average 66%), scrambling is very difficult at this course and top five most difficult on tour (~52% vs. tour average 58%), second lowest birdie+ % from the rough on tour, extremely fast small greens with heavy undulation, despite those greens they have the lowest three putt rate of any course on tour and its in the top five of 5-10 feet and 10-15 feet, many of the greens slope back to front, water and greenside bunkers in play (this course has the longest proximity on tour from shots out of green side bunkers and they’re the hardest on tour), rain softening the course can make it play much easier, in 2016 at -1 was the only year since 2003 that the cut line was under par
Lots of renovation were done to the course before the 2021 season with all of the grass on the fairways and greens redone, adjusted bunkers, changed contours to the greens, added a bunch of new trees and new tee boxes that when maxed out can lengthen the course around 100 yards. The only significant changes to these is the greens and the resodding of the greens will make them very firm for the first few years. The new contours of the greens makes course history slightly less of a factor since reading the greens is newer for everyone.
Tournament Notes
- Cut is 50 and ties
- Approach here is 3.5x more important here than SG: OTT (most courses it is around 2.5x) and SG: ARG is actually more significant than SG:OTT here
- Prior to Billy Horschel in 2022, the last 14 winners here has ranked in the top 10 for the season in SG: Approach
- In 2021, Jon Rahm was forced to withdraw with a six stroke lead after Saturday’s round with a bullshit positive COVID test even though he was completely healthy. He would have easily won this tournament by a touchdown if that wasn’t the case and went on to win the US Open two weeks later
- 14 of the last 16 winners here ranked T10 in Approach for the week
- In 2022 5 of the T6 finishes finished in the T10 in Approach. In 2021 5 of the T5 and 6 of the T10 finished in the T10 in Approach
- The 2020 Workday Championship was also held here the week prior to the Memorial with a slightly easier setup, which Morikawa won
- Americans have won here nine of the past 13 years
- Six of the last nine years this tournament was decided by a playoff
- Hideki Matsuyama in 2014 was the last player to win his first time here
- Justin Rose in 2010 was the last player to win here who missed a cut the previous year
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Proximity 150-175 yards, Proximity 175-200 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (22.6%), 175-200 yards (22.1%)
Note: 175-200 yards range might be more important with the lengthening of the course and the more difficult holes on the course being longer Par 4s that leave a longer approach shot
Field
73 golfers – Elevated event with a very strong invitational field
Defending Champion: Viktor Hovland (-7, in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Denny McCarthy (-7)
One and Done: Russell Henley
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Xander, Morikawa, Connors, Henley, Homa
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 12500: +375 – By far the best golfer in the world, last year he led the field in T2G (+20.8) and approach (+11.8) but lost 8.5 strokes putting and missed the playoff by a stroke, second in SG on Jack Nicklaus designed courses, 3,3,22 finishes here along with an MC for the Workday here in 2020 (so he improved a ton in the same year on the second harder week), 2,8,1,1,2,1,1,10,3,6,17,5 finishes this season, 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 1st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 35th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 20th in Proximity 200+ yards, 42nd in Sand Saves, 5th in SG: ARG, 42nd in Putting, 1st in GIRs Gained, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance, I’m sick of losing every week because Scottie just steamrolls every field he’s in, so even though I really don’t think the price is worth it on him ever I’m jumping on betting Scottie and with this being a small field there’s less risk to me
Corey Conners: 8500: +5500 – His ball striking recently has been elite and had a great run on Sunday last week in Canada for his 6th place finish with 6,26,13,44,38,25,13,18,41,24,28 finishes in his last eleven events, MC,13,53,22,65 finishes here along with a 39th finish at Workday here in 2020, 2nd in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 39th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 6th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 27th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 13th in Proximity 200+ yards, 41st in Sand Saves, 63rd in SG: ARG, 60th in Putting, 2nd in GIRs Gained, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 22nd in Bogie Avoidance, the odds aren’t great but I’ll also take the T5
Russell Henley: 8000: +5000 – On a fantastic run right now with 23,10,12,38,4,MC,4 finishes in his last seven events, 16,MC,29,33,MC,MC,6 finishes here and finished 7th at Workday here in 2020, 13th in Approach, 43rd in SG: OTT, 15th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 24th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 53rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 64th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in Sand Saves, 9th in SG: ARG, 16th in Putting, 34th in GIRs Gained, 24th in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Bogie Avoidance
Lucas Glover: 7000: +12000 – Pops in my model this week and has played well recently, MC,60,36,38,52,52,45,33 finishes his last eight times here and has played this event all but one year since 2005, 12,43,16,33,20,25,11,MC,30,35,35 finishes in his last eleven events, 16th in Approach, 38th in SG: OTT, 21st in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 7th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 31st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 16th in Sand Saves, 13th in SG: ARG, 58th in Putting, 13th in GIRs Gained, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Bogie Avoidance, also taking the T5 (with ties included)
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
SG: ARG (15%)
Putting (5%)
GIRs Gained (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I’ll be looking at SG: Approach leaders live after Round 1 and 2 for Live Betting opportunities with how important that stat is on this course.
- Treat this like a no cut event with less than 20 golfers getting cut
- I hit the winner here last year on Hovland
- Smaller card for me since I have to bet so much on Scottie (Morikawa got cut from my initial card)
Bets
Outrights
2.5u Scottie Scheffler (+375)
.2u Russell Henley (+5000)
.2u Corey Conners (+5500)
.1u Lucas Glover (+12000)
T5s
.2u Corey Conners (+1000)
T5s (including ties)
.1u Lucas Glover (+1500)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 