We’re finally at the Stanley Cup Finals to conclude the season with such a fantastic matchup between the Eastern Conference Champion Florida Panthers and the Western Conference Champion Edmonton Oilers. Really an awesome matchup as the greatest player in a generation in Connor McDavid in his first Finals against an incredible team that’s a blast to watch that’s never won the Cup. The puck drops for Game 1 in Sunrise, Florida tonight at 8:00 EST.

Florida won both games between these teams during the regular season, winning 5-3 in the first game at home on November 20th and then 5-1 on the road on December 16th. Cal Pickard played both games in goal for the Oilers though, and starter Stuart Skinner hasn’t played against them.

Following their Eastern Conference Championship win last season, the Florida Panthers had a really good season. They finished the year a point ahead of Boston for first place in the Atlantic with a 52-24-6 record. Florida’s headed into the playoffs hot, on a six game point streak and four game win streak after ending the season with a 5-2 win against the Leafs.

For the first time in franchise history, the Florida Panthers defeated their in state rival Lightning in the first round, taking down Tampa in five games. The Cats won both of the first two games at home against the Bolts 3-2, but were the far better team in both of those games, winning Game 1 in regulation and then needing overtime but getting the win again. When the series shifted to Tampa for Game 3, Bobrovsky and Tkachuk led the way to a 5-3 win to take a commanding 3-0 lead. The Lightning were the better team in Game 4 at home, avoid the season sweep with a 6-3 win. As the series shifted back to Lauderdale for Game 5, the Panthers dominated in a 6-1 blowout to close out the Bolts and get some rest while they awaited the Bruins and Leafs beating up on each other.

In the second round in a rematch of the crazy comeback win in the first round, the Panthers defeated the Boston Bruins for the second season in a row, winning the series in six games. I was pretty shocked by the final score of Game 1 of their series, a game that was much more competitive than the final 5-1 score. Although the Panthers outshot the Bruins 39-29, Jeremy Swayman was fantastic in goal on the road and with some excellently placed shots, the Bruins got the 5-1 blowout win coming off their Game 7 victory against Toronto. The Panthers bounced back in way more dominant fashion in Game 2, limiting Boston to just 15 shots on goal, outshooting the B’s 33-15 on their way to a 6-1 blowout win of their own to tie the series heading back to Boston. Florida took back home ice in the series with another blowout in Game 3 in similar fashion, with a 6-2 win on the road as they outshot the Bruins 33-17. Jeremy Swayman kept the Bruins in Game 4 despite the Panthers dominating. Boston got out to a 2-0 lead in the first period, but Florida came back to win 3-2 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead as they outshot the B’s by a significant margin again, 41-18. The Bruins avoided elimination in Game 5 in a close game, with Swayman keeping them in it again, as the Bruins won 2-1 on the road to force Game 6. Game 6 was very close as well, but with a late goal with just 1:33 left in regulation by Gustav Forsling, Florida eliminated Boston once again with a 2-1 win on the road.

The Panthers dominated the Eastern Conference Finals and for the second season in a row, knocked off the President’s Trophy winners, defeating the New York Rangers in six games. This series would’ve easily been a sweep for Florida if it weren’t for Igor Shesterkin in goal for the Rangers. Florida started the series with a 3-0 shutout win in Game 1 on the road but I didn’t think the Rags played nearly as poorly as the score showed. The game was still pretty close, with it just being 1-0 all the way until just 3:48 left in regulation when Carter Verhaeghe scored, with Sam Bennett capping the game off with an empty net. The Panthers outshot New York 27-24, but the Rags generated 2.68 expected goals to Florida’s 2.14 but it Igor wasn’t great in goal for New York. The Rangers tied up the series in an awesome, low scoring, grind of a Game 2 at home, winning 2-1 in overtime on Barclay Goodrow’s game winner. The Rags outshot Florida 30-27 and generated 3.03 expected goals to the Panthers’ 2.39. Despite Florida being the way better team in Game 3, the Rangers found a way to win, with an incredible 33 save performance from Igor Shesterkin, to take home ice back in the series on Alex Wennberg’s game winner 5:35 into overtime, winning 5-4. The Panthers outshot the Rags 37-23 and outplayed them significantly, be an expected goal rate of 3.81-1.69. Florida was a complete lock in Game 4 and they played fantastic to tie up the series. The Panthers, who were the better team throughout the game, got the win at home on Sam Reinhart’s power play goal 1:12 into overtime to tie up the series in pretty much a must-win game. Florida was the better team throughout, again with Shesterkin keeping the Rags in the game, as the Panthers outshot NY 40-23 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.56-1.78. In Game 5, Florida was the dominant team again. After giving up the first goal of the game, shorthanded early in the second period, they scored the next two goals and capped it off with an empty netter. The Rangers made me sweat out my under as they scored to make it 3-2 with 50 seconds left, but the Panthers controlled the puck to take the win to go up 3-2 in the series on the road heading back to Sunrise tonight. Florida’s was the better team through the series, with Igor Shesterkin keeping the Rags in these games, and Game 5 wasn’t any different. They outshot the Rangers 37-27 and dominated them by an expected goal rate of 4.63-2.99. The Panthers were the better team again in a close Game 6 to close out the series at home, leading throughout on their way to a 2-1 win, giving up the shutout with just 1:40 left in the game. They outshot the Rangers 34-24 and out-generated them in chances, by an expected goal rate of 2.92-1.88, advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals once again.

Statistically Florida was good on both ends of the ice this year. Offensively they averaged 3.23 goals per game, eleventh-most in the NHL, on an average of 33.7 shots per game, the second-most in the league, only behind Edmonton by a fraction of a shot per game. The Panthers generated the second-most expected goals (3.67) and the second-most high danger shots in the NHL. Their power play ranked ninth in the league, scoring on 23.5% of their chances. Sam Reinhart led the offense with the best year of his career, scoring 57 goals and 94 points, while Matthew Tkachuk led the team in assists with 62.

Defensively the Panthers were the best team in the NHL this season, allowing an average of just 2.42 goals per game, on the third-fewest shots allowed, an average of just 27.8 per game. Florida gave up the fifth-fewest expected goals per game (2.78) in the league and the eleventh-fewest high danger shots. Their penalty kill was great, ranking sixth in the NHL, killing penalties at an 82.5% rate. Sergei Bobrovsky, who was the horse that led Florida through their Eastern Conference Championship run last year, was fantastic again this year. In the regular season he went 36-17-4 with a 2.37 GAA, a .915 save percentage, and six shutouts.

Florida has been very good on both ends of the ice through the first two rounds. The Panthers offense has scored the second most goals of playoff teams, averaging 3.24 goals per game, only trailing the Oilers. Their power play scored at a 23.3% rate. Defensively they’ve been solid as well, allowing an average of 2.29 goals per game, the third-fewest of playoff teams. Their penalty kill at 88.2% is the second-best of the playoffs, only behind Edmonton.

Edmonton had a solid season, finishing in second in the Pacific with a 49-27-6 record and a real good 28-9-4 record at home. They started the year horrible, with a 2-9-1 first month of the season, but after firing head coach Jay Woodcroft they picked it up and never looked back under new head coach Kris Knoblauch. They ended the year a bit cold though with just one win in their last five regular season games.

The Oilers dominated the Kings in the first round of the playoffs, winning it in five games, with the only loss coming in overtime. They opened the series with a huge 7-4 win at home in Game 1, with all of their stars contributing, including Zach Hyman’s first playoff hat trick and a five assist night for Connor McDavid. The Kings answered back to tie the series in Game 2. LA got out to a 3-1 lead in the first period. The Oilers came back twice in that game to take it to overtime, but Anze Kopitar got the 5-4 win on the road in OT. Edmonton bounced back in dominant fashion in Game 3, blowing out the Kings 6-1 to take back home ice in the series. They followed it up with a grind of a game in Game 4, with Stuart Skinner getting a shutout in a 1-0 win on the road to take a 3-1 series lead back home to Edmonton for Game 5. The Oilers closed out the series with a 4-3 win at home on the back of a big three goal second period.

I expected the Oilers to make relatively quick work of the Vancouver Canucks in the second wrong but I was quite wrong, as it was the only second round series to go seven games, with Edmonton playing from behind in the series several times. Edmonton looked good to start Game 1, but blew a 4-1 lead to lose 5-4 in Vancouver. The Oilers bounced back in Game 2 on the road, outshooting the Canucks 31-19 on their way to a 4-3 overtime win capped off by Evan Bouchard’s game winner to tie the series heading back to Edmonton. In Game 3, the Oilers outshot the Canucks 45-18 but with horrendous goaltending from Stuart Skinner, they lost 4-3 at home. Edmonton answered back in a pretty close game to tie the series up at home in Game 4, winning 3-2 on Evan Bouchard’s game winner with 39 seconds left in regulation. The Canucks were the better team in Game 5 back home in Vancouver though, and got their own late game magic, winning 3-2 on J.T. Miller’s game winner with 33 seconds left, outshooting the Oilers 35-23 to put Edmonton a game away from elimination. Edmonton had their most dominant game of the series in Game 6, outshooting the Canucks 27-15 to force Game 7 with a 5-1 blowout win. The Oilers kept it rolling in Game 7, going up 3-0 in the second period as they were the clear cut better team and then hanging on with a sweaty end of the game to advance to the Western Conference Finals with a 3-2 win on the road.

Going into the Western Conference Finals, I loved the Stars to knock off the Oilers (and Dallas was my pick to win the Stanley Cup, but I was wrong as Edmonton got the job done in a pretty strange series. Game 1 of this series was so much fun to watch, as the Oilers won 3-2 in double overtime. All three stars scored with Edmonton’s three goals coming from Hyman, Draisaitl, and McDavid. The Oilers got out to a 2-0 lead and blew it with Tyler Seguin scoring both of the Stars goals to tie it up and take the game to overtime. The Oilers played fantastic hockey and were the better team in Game 1. They were solid defensively with good play in goal from Stuart Skinner, who made 36 saves on the 38 shots he face. The penalty kill for Edmonton was great (including the four minute penalty to McDavid to start the first overtime), but Connor McDavid after missing a great chance in the first overtime, got the win 32 seconds into double OT. The Oilers outshot Dallas 38-33, but the Stars slightly generated more expected goals, 3.88-3.66. After the Oilers were the better team in Game 1 and took home ice with their double overtime win, the Stars answered back with a 3-1 win at home in Game 2 to tie the series in a game that I didn’t think they played great hockey in. The Oilers outshot the Stars 16-4 in the first period, but the game was tied 1-1 after a period and Dallas took a 3-1 win in another close game, despite getting outshot 29-25 and the Oilers generating 3.31 expected goals to the Stars’ 3.16. The Stars took their first lead in the series with a big 5-3 win on the road in Game 3. The first period of Game 3 didn’t look good for Dallas, getting outshot 10-3 and taking a 2-0 deficit into the first intermission, but they battled back big time in the second and controlled play. They started the second period with 14 unanswered shots on goal, scoring three goals in a row to take the lead as Jason Robertson benefitted big time from Roope Hintz getting back in the lineup. Edmonton tied up the game at 3 on Adam Henrique’s goal with 52.5 seconds left in the second, but in the third Robertson completed his hat trick with the game winner and Heiskanen finished the game with empty netter. On the game, the Oilers outshot the Stars 30-22 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.9-2.92. Just like the Stars came back in impressive fashion in Game 3, the Oilers bounced right back with a fantastic comeback of their own in Game 4 to knot the series back up at 2-2. Dallas started that game quick as Wyatt Johnston scored just 58 seconds into the game and they made it 2-0 just 5:29 in on Esa Lindell’s goal. Edmonton came roaring back though in a must win, tying it up before the first ended and then continuing to score five straight goals to tie up the series with a 5-2 win. The Oilers were the better team, outshooting the Stars 29-22 and then outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 3.73-1.95. I way underestimated the Edmonton Oilers in this series. I thought Dallas would cruise to the Cup Finals in five or six games. Clearly that was wrong and the Oilers defense, and Stuart Skinner far exceeded expectations in the Western Conference Finals. The Stars were pretty much completely non-existent offensively through the first 40 minutes of Game 5 on Friday night, barely generating anything. Dallas poured it on in the third period, but were only able to beat Skinner once, on their way to a 3-1 loss to be a game away from elimination. Game 6 in Edmonton was the craziest game of the series with the Oilers advancing to the Cup Finals for the first time since 2006 with a 2-1 win at home, despite being the far worse team in that game. I got completely fucked betting wise as I hedged my future and series bets with the Oilers team total over 2.5 and lost everything. Edmonton started the game with a 2-0 lead in the first period, scoring twice on the power play as Connor McDavid opened the scoring 4:17 into the game on an insane highlight reel goal and Zach Hyman followed it up. Despite getting outshot 34-10 and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 3.2-1.16 as the Stars poured it on, Stuart Skinner saved 33 of the 34 shots he faced to get his Oil the series win, only allowing Mason Marchment’s goal in the third period.

Led by the greatest hockey player in the world in Connor McDavid, the Oilers offense was fantastic, fourth in the league in scoring, averaging 3.56 goals per game on an average of 31.9 shots per game. They lead the NHL in expected goals per game (3.74) and had the most high danger shots. Edmonton had the league’s fourth-best power play, clicking at a 26.3% rate. McDavid became the fourth player in NHL history to get to 100 assists, the first player since Mario in the early 90s to hit 100 in a 132 point season. Zach Hyman had a career year with 54 tip in goals.

Edmonton wasn’t bad defensively whatsoever either, much improved from last year. They allowed an average of 2.88 goals per game, the tenth-fewest in the NHL on an average of 28.1 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up just the fourth-fewest expected goals per game (2.78) and the third-fewest high danger shots. The Oilers killed off 79.5% of their penalties. I’m still not sold on Stuart Skinner, who had a 36-16-5 record, a 2.62 GAA, a .905 save percentage, and two shutout this year.

Through the playoffs, although the Oilers goaltending and defense has struggled at times, their offense has been fantastic. Edmonton’s second in scoring of all playoff teams, averaging 3.5 goals per game. Their power play continues to be incredible, scoring on 37.3% of their chances, first in the playoffs. No surprise when you have Connor, Leon, and Hyman on that first PP. Defensively though they’ve had their issues, but they’ve rebounded from that very well. Stuart Skinner was statistically the worst goaltender in Oilers playoff history for the second round series against Vancouver, but rebounded beautifully in the Western Conference Finals. Through the playoffs, the Oilers have ranked seventh defensively, allowing an average of 2.61 goals per game. The penalty kill has been very good, leading the playoffs at 93.9%.

A Canadian team hasn’t won a Cup since 1993, and as much as I’d love to see McDavid lift the Stanley Cup, I don’t see Florida losing it again this season. I think they’re the deeper, more complete team and they’re my pick to win Lord Stanley. Outside of McDavid and Draisaitl leading the way for Edmonton, the Panthers are better at every position and I don’t see Skinner stealing the series for the Oilers like he did in the Western Conference Finals. I’ll take the Panthers to win the Cup for 2 units. I think they likely get it done in six games.

Expecting them to win the Cup, I like Florida to win Game 1 at home tonight and I’ll take them for a unit.

Both of these teams have trended under this season and through the playoffs, and I expect the games in the Cup Finals to trend under as well, especially with play tightening up as every play matters. On the regular season, the unders on both of these teams was quite profitable, going 49-29-4 for Florida and 43-36-3 for Edmonton. In the playoffs, Panthers games have gone 10-7 to the under while Oilers games have gone 8-9-1. Both regular season games between these teams did trend over though. I’d lean Game 1 goes under, but I’ll stay off it for Game 1 and evaluate it before I hop on it.

Series Bets

2u Panthers to win the Stanley Cup (-135)

Game 1 Bets

1u Panthers ML (-148)

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