Coming off my win on Scottie last week, this week we head to Pinehurst No. 2 as all the best golfers in the world on both tours compete in the US Open for the third major of the year! Let’s win again!
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7543 yards, Donald Ross design, barely any rough on the course with wire grass and sandy native areas off the fairways, all four Par 3s are long from 191-219 yards, eight of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, two of the Par 4s are under 400 yards, 117 bunkers, water in play on just one hole, wide fairways between 35-40 yards that were hit on 70% of drives in 2014 (much higher than tour average around 61%), in 2014 the GIR percentage was far lower than tour average (~55% vs. tour average ~66%), crowned bowl shaped Bermuda greens that are very fast with a lot of runoffs into bunkers and short grass and they play very small because of all the runoffs, scoring on the Par 5s and the two short Par 4s are critical
Tournament Notes
- This course previously hosted the 2014 US Open where Martin Kaymer won by 8 strokes, the 2005 US Open (Michael Campbell), and 1999 US Open (Payne Stewart)
- The cut is T60 and ties, making it the most difficult cut to make each year
- Each of the last ten winners of the US Open were ranking in the T35 (eight in the T25) in the world (this is a skewed stat since the OWGR is pretty much useless now)
- Seven of the last ten winners of the US Open were American
- Nine of the last ten winners previously had a T25 at a US Open
- Five of the last ten winners previously had a T10 at a US Open
- Eight of the last ten winners had a T10 in at least one of their two previous majors
- Seven of the last ten winners were first time major winners
- Eight of the last ten winners had a T15 in one of their two previous starts on the PGA or LIV
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring, Bogie Avoidance
Corollary Courses
- TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS) – not a lot of rough around the greens which is similar to Pinehurst, SG: ARG is not as significant here with tightly mowed areas around the green. There’s been a lot of crossover success here with Martin Kaymer, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, and Henrik Stenson all winning at Sawgrass and finishing in the T9 here in 2014
Field
156 golfers – All the best players in the world on the PGA Tour, LIV Golf, and the DP World Tour
Defending Champion (LA Country Club): Wyndham Clark (-10)
Runner Up Last Year (LA Country Club): Rory McIlroy (-9)
One and Done: Cameron Smith
One and Done Considerations: Scottie, Brooks, Hideki, Xander, Morikawa, Rahm, Cam Smith, Hovland
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 13000: +320 – By far the best golfer in the World and already won a major this year with his Masters win, has won five of his last eight starts with 2,2,8 finishes in the three that he didn’t with 1,2,8,1,1,2,1,1,10,3,6,17,5 finishes this season, 3,2,7,MC,27,MC finishes at US Opens, did not play here yet 2014, 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 4th in Good Drives, 53rd in Sand Saves, 67th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 29th in Proximity 200+ yards, 4th in SG: ARG, 41st in Putting, 1st in GIR Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance, I finally jumped in and started betting him regardless of the ridiculous price last week at The Memorial and cashed without much of a sweat, although the price seems horrible its actually profitable with how often he wins, biggest golf bet I’ve ever placed, I considered betting his T5 at -120 but I think if he finishes T5 he ends up winning and when you take into account the dead heat rules it isn’t worth betting
Brooks Koepka: 10000: +2500 – Historically fantastic at US Open and PGA Championship setups especially the harder ones winning it back to back in 2018 and 2017, winningest golfer in this generation in major championships, finishing 4th here in 2014 with 17,55,4,2,1,1,13,18,4,MC finishes at US Opens, had the low round Sunday (-7) and led LIV in GIR (81%) last week in Houston in his T9 finish, T9,1,T9,T45,28 finishes on LIV this season with a T26 at the PGA Championship and a T45 at The Masters, 36th in Approach, 29th in SG: OTT, 101st in Good Drives, 86th in Sand Saves, 110th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 36th in Par 5 Scoring, 35th in Proximity 200+ yards, 48th in SG: ARG, 21st in Putting, 45th in GIR Gained, 49th in Bogie Avoidance, stats are all skewed since they only include majors since he went to LIV so this is much more of a feel play than a model play for me
Hideki Matsuyama: 8000: +4500 – Previous major winner at The Masters, finished 35th here in 2014 with 32,4,26,17,21,16,2,MC,18,35,10 finishes at US Opens, has only played three events in the last two months (The Masters, PGA Championship, and The Memorial last week), improved each day at The Memorial and gained strokes on all of the main SG categories and his driving accuracy was good where he finished 8th, already won this year at the Genesis, 8,35,38,7,6,12,1,22,71,13,30,58,51,16 finishes in his last 14 events, 13th in Approach, 37th in SG: OTT, 39th in Good Drives, 6th in Sand Saves, 137th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 18th in Proximity 200+ yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 95th in Putting, 26th in GIR Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance, has had success at Sawgrass with four T10 finishes there, I looked at the “winner without Scheffler” market with him, but don’t think its worth it at +3500 (with the dead heat rules if more than one golfer finishes T2 behind Scheffler), also taking the T7 each way
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
GIR Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Pre-season I pretty much had Rahm locked in as my One & Done, but with how he’s played on LIV lately and his injury, I’ll be looking elsewhere
- Since I’m betting Scottie big this week, way smaller card than usual (especially for a major) for me
Bets
Outrights
4u Scottie Scheffler (+320)
.5u Brooks Koepka (+2500)
.3u Hideki Matsuyama (+4500)
T7 Each Way
.3u Hideki Matsuyama (+900)
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