I’ve cashed in on golf two weeks in a row now, hitting Scottie at the Memorial and the Hideki each way at the US Open on his sixth place finish. This week we have another elevated event as the PGA Tour heads to Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. Let’s win again!
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 6841 yards, shortest course on tour this season, Pete Dye designed course, eight of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yards, both Par 5s are reachable and there’s a short and drivable Par 4, guys could club down and hit their spots where they want, lot of birdie opportunities here, doesn’t favor any particular ball flight, wide and easy fairways to hit here (~68% vs. ~62% tour average), trees in play if you miss the fairways, the fairways get narrower the farther from the tee you go and around the landing area at about 300 yards, first cut of rough isn’t very penal but gets tougher with bigger misses, top ten hardest courses on tour to scramble from the rough, soft and receptive predominately POA greens with a mix of bentgrass, greens are smaller but slightly easier than average to hit (~68% vs. ~66% tour average), fast greens have a bit of slope and not much undulation, lot of the greens are elevated, pins could be located in tough spots, greens are guarded by collection areas, water, thick rough and bunkers, water in play in about 1/3 of holes but isn’t a big factor
Tournament Notes
- 4 of the last 14 winners got their first career win here
- 5 of the last 11 winners were coming into the week off a missed cut in their previous event
- 8 of the last 10 winners have posted at least a T30 here before winning
- Since 2001, only 2 golfers (Phil in 2001, Spieth in 2017) won on their first time here
- SG: OTT is much more important here than ATG, but both are outweighed by approach, as usual
- No cut event this week
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.7%)
Corollary Courses
- Pete Dye tracks. Slightly different than other Pete Dye tracks but still has a lot of similar elements
- Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open) – lot of crossover success
- Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship) – lot of crossover success
Field
69 golfers – Elevated signature event with a loaded field
Defending Champion: Keegan Bradley (-23)
Runner Up Last Year: Zac Blair, Brian Harman (-20)
One and Done: Brian Harman
One and Done Considerations: Scottie, Aberg, Henley, Harman, Keegan
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 12500: +375 – He still made the cut but had his worst finish in a long time at the US Open last week with his T41 and I love the best golfer in the world to bounce back here, 4,13,47,MC finishes here, 41,1,2,8,1,1,2,1,1,10,3,6,17,5 finishes this season, 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in SG: ARG, 43rd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, even with his ridiculous odds it’s still worth betting on him on a weekly basis with the amount he wins, he actually has better odds this week than he did last week at the US Open
Ludvig Aberg: 10200: +2400 – Playing fantastic golf right now and actually played this event last year where he finished 24th in his debut here, 12,5,MC,10,2,14,8,25,19,2,9,30,47,1,10,13,2,14 finishes in his last 18 events, 8th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 4th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 15th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 17th in Par 5 Scoring, 52nd in SG: ARG, 16th in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained, used a boost I had on him on BetRivers
Russell Henley: 8600: +3300 – Playing really solid right now, 19,19,32,MC,6,11 finishes here, 7,27,23,10,12,38,4,MC,4 finishes in his last nine events, 17th in Approach, 54th in SG: OTT, 9th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 43rd in Par 5 Scoring, 17th in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 24th in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdie+ Gained
Brian Harman: 8300: +4500 – Phenomenal course history here with 2,8,5,MC,8,6,35,MC,3,42,51,24 finishes here every year all the way back to 2012, played decent lately with 21,33,24,26,47,12,MC,25,MC,2,12 finishes in his last eleven events, 21st in Approach, 51st in SG: OTT, 8th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 65th in Par 5 Scoring, 34th in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- There’s a slight advantage on Showdown slates for birdie streaks if golfers start on the back nine due to the wraparound
Bets
Outrights
4u Scottie Scheffler (+375)
.5u Ludvig Aberg (+2400)
.4u Russell Henley (+3300)
.3u Brian Harman (+4500)
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A Town's Zone 