This week we have the final major championship of the year as all of the best golfers in the world head to Royal Troon in Scotland for the Open Championship. Let’s cash a winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7190 yards, true links style course, the first six holes are right on the water and play mainly downwind and shorter than the actual distance, the back nine (which is very difficult) typically plays directly into the wind and play much longer, narrow fairways that run fast and firm, none of the Par 4s on the front nine play longer than 450 yards while the Par 4s on the back range from 430-502 yards, two of the Par 5s are reachable in two and the other is very long, since 2016 when this course last hosted The Open the course has been lengthened by around 200 yards with nine new tee boxes added, much lower driving accuracy here (~55%) vs. tour average (~62%), large pot bunkers in the fairways and guarding the greens with raised faces and some aren’t visible from the tee boxes, long drives that carry over 300 yards could completely fly over the fairway bunkers, if drivers miss the fairways there is about three feet of a first cut of rough that isn’t too penal with thick tough rough outside of that especially with more rain in Scotland this year, there are bushes that are pretty much an automatic stroke if you miss wildly, way lower GIR % (~57%) than tour average (~66%), tiny bentgrass greens mixed with poa that have shaved edges with runoff areas and bunkers guarding them, the wind is the biggest defense of the course
Tournament Notes
- Final major of the year
- Top 70 and ties make the cut, more than the usual T65 and ties
- This is the only event of the year besides The Masters with no split tees, so everyone starts on 1 and no one starts on 10. This means there’s going to be some long days of golf and stacking tee times for weather splits has to be done so in shorter pockets than in just AM/PM waves
- This will be the tenth time this course has hosted the Open Championship and the first since 2016 when Henrik Stenson won at -20
- Since Henrik Stenson winning in 2016, every winner besides Brian Harman last year of The Open Championship have finished at least T11 in one of their three previous majors (Harman finished 6th the previous year at The Open)
- In the last eleven years, only Ernie Els and Shane Lowry were winners outside of the Top 30 in the world in the year that they won
- Since 2011, outside of Ernie Els in 2012, each Champion Golfer either had a win or three Top T13’s in their six starts prior to winning the Open.
- Since 2008, only Collin Morikawa had fewer than four previous Open appearances before winning the Open
- Since 2008, beside Brian Harman last year (who was 6th in 2022, no one since Paddy Harrington (who won for the second straight year) had finished better than T30 in their previous Open start and 7 of the past 13 winners had missed the cut in their Open before becoming champion, so history the prior year doesn’t matter as much but experience on links style courses is important
- Eight of the last twelve winners were 32 years old or older
- Nine of the last eleven winners had a T20 in one of the other majors that season
- 15 of the last 18 winners finished T9 or better in a previous year
- Two of the last ten winners won their last start prior to winning the Open and four of the last ten have a win in one of their two lead in events.
- 5 of the last 10 winners have a win in one of the previous five starts. The outliers were Zach Johnson in 2015 who had three T10s in the five starts prior to winning at St. Andrews, Shane Lowry in 2019 who had three T10s in his four prior starts, Collin Morikawa in 2020 who had two T5s in his previous two starts and four T10s in his prior five starts, Cam Smith in 2022 who had three T13s in his previous six starts and a win at The Players earlier in the season, and Brian Harman last year who went into The Open with 12,9,2 finishes in his previous three events
- 8 of the last 10 winners had a T10 at The Open in the five years prior to their win. Morikawa in 2020 who won in his first Open Championship and Cam Smith in 2022, who’s best finish was 20th prior are the two outliers
- Since 2011, every winner of The Open has either won a major or came in second at a major prior to their win.
- Although Stenson won here in 2016 at -20, the cut line that year was +4.
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring
Field
157 golfers – major strength field with all the best golfers in the world on all three tours in the field
Defending Champion (Royal Liverpool): Brian Harman (-13)
Runner Ups Last Year: Sepp Straka, Jason Day, Tom Kim, Jon Rahm (-7)
One and Done: Jon Rahm
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Rory, Bryson, Finau, Brooks, Rahm
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 12800: +600 – Best golfer in the world, 23,21,8 finishes at The Open, 1,41,1,2,8,1,1,2,1,1,10,3,6,17,5 finishes this season, 1st in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 35th in Driving Distance, 4th in Good Drives, 53rd in Sand Saves, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 15th in SG: ARG, 39th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance, best odds we’ve seen on him all year and I’ve already cashed in twice on him
Bryson DeChambeau: 11500: +2000 – Has the best finishes in majors this year with a win at the US Open, finishing 2nd at the PGA and 6th at the Masters, I think his distance off the tee is a big advantage here, 60,8,33,MC,51,MC finishes at Open Championships, 9,T3,T18,T27,T26,T7,T6,4,T9,T25 finishes on LIV this season, 77th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 44th in Good Drives, 45th in Sand Saves, 30th in Par 3 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 32nd in Par 5 Scoring, 57th in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 59th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Bogie Avoidance
Collin Morikawa: 9900: +1400 – Playing great golf lately and has two major wins including in 2021 at The Open in his debut, MC,MC,1 finishes at The Open, 4,13,14,2,4,4,16,9,3 finishes in his last nine events, 31st in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 119th in Driving Distance, 1st in Good Drives, 59th in Sand Saves, 8th in Par 3 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 5 Scoring, 7th in SG: ARG, 22nd in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance, used a free bet for him
Tommy Fleetwood: 9300: +2596 – Feels like I alway pick him at The Open but he’s playing solid golf again and has the ability to win here, 10,4,33,2,12,27,MC,MC,MC finishes at The Open, 34,15,16,20,21,26,13,49,3,7 finishes in his last ten events, 24th in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 96th in Driving Distance, 6th in Good Drives, 6th in Sand Saves, 24th in Par 3 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 74th in Par 5 Scoring, 26th in SG: ARG, 55th in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Bogie Avoidance
Brooks Koepka: 9000: +4500 – By far the best major champion in recent history, pretty much throwing out his stats and LIV finishes, 26,26,45,64,17,1,2 finishes in his last seven majors, T27,T42,T9,1,T9,T45,28,T12,T12,T5 finishes on LIV this season, 64,MC,6,4,39,6,10,67,MC finishes at The Open, 34th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 24th in Driving Distance, 107th in Good Drives, 55th in Sand Saves, 131st in Par 3 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 24th in Par 5 Scoring, 24th in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 58th in Opportunities Gained, 25th in Bogie Avoidance, pretty much an auto bet at every major, spectacular odds
Tony Finau: 8700: +5000 – Feels like everyone’s betting him this week, comes into this week on three straight top 10s including two in signature events, has gained in SG:ARG in five straight events while also gaining strokes putting in his last three, MC,28,15,3,9,27,18 (at Royal Troon in 2016) finishes at The Open, 5,3,8,17,18,52,12,55,2 finishes in his last nine events, 4th in Approach, 77th in SG: OTT, 13th in Driving Distance, 8th in Good Drives, 35th in Sand Saves, 17th in Par 3 Scoring, 39th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in SG: ARG, 97th in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Bogie Avoidance
Aaron Rai: 7300: +8000 – Playing great golf lately and although I don’t see him winning this week I expect him to have success here, MC,19 finishes at Open Championships, 4,7,2,19,14,32,39,4,MC,58,7,MC,35,23,19 finishes in his last 15 events, 9th in Approach, 28th in SG: OTT, 138th in Driving Distance, 2nd in Good Drives, 96th in Sand Saves, 47th in Par 3 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 19th in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 61st in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Good Drives (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Pretty big card for me this week. Last major of the year, fuck it.
- Stats for LIV guys are skewed since they’re only getting strokes gained data for majors
- I considered betting some T10s but didn’t find the prices worth it so I’m just sticking to the outrights
Bets
Outrights
2u Scottie Scheffler (+600)
1u Collin Morikawa (+1400)
.7u Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
.5u Tommy Fleetwood (+2596)
.4u Brooks Koepka (+4500)
.3u Tony Finau (+5000)
.2u Aaron Rai (+8000)
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A Town's Zone 