Following up the final major of the year, this week the PGA Tour heads back to America for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Minneapolis. Let’s catch a winner here!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7431 yards, designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman, altitude above sea level so shots will go farther than normal, lot of tee boxes so the length of the course could be adjusted easily from round to round, very easy course, was a birdiefest on the Sr. Tour (average winning score of -21) which continued on the PGA but has played a bit tougher the last few years, three of the four Par 3’s are over 200 yards, the Par 4s range quite a bit in distance, the Par 5s are long but can be reachable by some of the field, ton of water here with 27 water hazards (in play on 15 holes), 72 bunkers on the course, wide tree lined fairways around an average of 36 yards in width, weird fescue if you miss wildly off the tee and miss the water, only 2.5 inch regular rough that isn’t penal, bunkers in the landing zones and water in play on a lot of holes, trees aren’t bunched up with a lot of room between the trees and fairway, above average size relatively flat greens, run off area only on the front of most greens, bunkers, water and some rough surrounding the greens, pure bentgrass greens (only Colonial and Augusta have that), slightly better than tour average driving accuracy (~64% vs. 62%), better than tour average GIR % (~72% vs. 66%), longer than tour average driving distance (~291 vs. 283 yards), wind could make the course a bit tougher but its still pretty easy to score on
Tournament Notes
- Only the sixth year that this tournament has existed
- Formerly this course hosted the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour
- SG: ARG has barely any impact whatsoever on finishes here
- Before last year where this didn’t apply to four of the twelve golfers that finished T10, every golfer with a T10 finish here has gained on both approach and SG: T2G (in 2022 Danny Willett lost 0.1 strokes on approach)
- In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 gained at least 2.2 SG: OTT (all but one gained in SG: OTT). In 2020, 9 of the 11 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT. In 2021, 10 of the 11 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT (Brian Stuard lost 0.3 strokes). In 2022, 10 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT.
- In 2019 and 2020, everyone that finished T10 had at least 19 birdies or better for the tournament. In 2021, the 11 golfers that finished T10, had at least 15 (6 of those 11 had at least 19) and played a bit more difficult with windier conditions. Last year every golfer that finished T10 had at least 18 birdies or better.
- In 2019, the 12 golfers that finished T10 averaged 23 birdies or better and all were -16 or better and there were only 3 double bogies or worse
- In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 shot -7 or better on the Par 4s and only Sam Burns and Troy Merritt shot worse than -5
- Distance last year off the tee didn’t seem to mean much despite the average driving distance here being a good amount longer than tour average, with none of the Top 12 in distance finishing T15, but seven of the top nine finishers gained at least 2.7 strokes OTT
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (22.7%), 175-200 yards (21%)
Corollary Courses
PGA National (The Honda Classic) – Crossover success, has a ton of water and along with PGA National, this course has the most approach shots on Tour between 175-200 yards
Field
150 golfers – Pretty lousy high end of the field, but decent mid range
Defending Champion: Lee Hodges (-24)
Runner Up Last Year: J.T. Poston, Martin Laird, Kevin Streelman (-17)
One and Done: Akshay Bhatia
One and Done Considerations: Finau, Bhatia
Players
Tony Finau: 10500: +1200 – By far the best golfer in the field, ignoring the missed cut with a round in the 80s at The Open last week he’s in fantastic form with three straight top 10s including two in signature events with MC,5,3,8,17,18,52,12,55,2 finishes in his last ten events, former winner with fantastic course history here with 7,1,28,3,23 finishes here, 2nd in Approach, 57th in SG: OTT, 5th in Good Drives, 17th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 33rd in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 22nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 7th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in SG: ARG, 81st in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T10 (which I’m splitting on a boost and to
Akshay Bhatia: 9800: +2200 – Has won on tour this season and has been in contention a few more times, MC,2,5,16,22,60,MC,MC,42,18,35,1,11,17 finishes in his last 14 events, first time playing this event, 9th in Approach, 23rd in SG: OTT, 32nd in Good Drives, 15th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 70th in Par 4 Scoring, 21st in Par 5 Scoring, 5th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 11th in Proximity 200+ yards, 61st in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained, 26th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T10 (including ties)
Keith Mitchell: 9400: +3500 – He’s been crushing it T2G but has been horrible putting, somehow though has gained over 4 strokes putting three of his four years here, solid course history with back to back T5s here with 5,5,MC,66 finishes at this event, MC,18,MC,10,37,MC,20,14,MC,17,73,9,19,17 finishes in his last 14 events, 1st in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 46th in Good Drives, 13th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 27th in Par 4 Scoring, 27th in Par 5 Scoring, 48th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 6th in Proximity 200+ yards, 101st in SG: ARG, 141st in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained
Luke Clanton: 9300: +3000 – Playing fantastic golf for an amateur and I’m taking the risk here on him, first time playing this event, 37,2,10,41 finishes on the PGA Tour (including the 41st at the US Open, 16th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 9th in Good Drives, 87th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 68th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 30th in Proximity 200+ yards, 121st in SG: ARG, 35th in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained (stats are all based only on his 16 PGA Tour rounds)
Tom Hoge: 8800: +3300 – Playing consistent golf this season T2G with the ARG play really killing him (which should not play much of a factor here), 20,4,MC,46,23 finishes here, 72,MC,3,MC,45,17,23,38,41,18,14,54,12,28,8,17,6,56,17,MC,38 finishes this season, 6th in Approach, 29th in SG: OTT, 8th in Good Drives, 130th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 29th in Par 5 Scoring, 99th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 84th in Proximity 200+ yards, 94th in SG: ARG, 65th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained
Rico Hoey: 7500: +9500 – Playing solid golf coming off his 2nd place finish at the ISCO last week with 2,26,6 finishes in his last three events, first time playing this event, 31st in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 37th in Good Drives, 80th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 5 Scoring, 23rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 38th in Proximity 200+ yards, 89th in SG: ARG, 116th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Birdie+ Gained, used a Caesars boost on him
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- For showdown slates, it’s a slight advantage to stack guys that start on the back nine since 9 is one of the toughest holes on the course but 18 and 1 are two of the easiest
Bets
Outrights
1u Tony Finau (+1200)
.5u Akshay Bhatia (+2200)
.4u Luke Clanton (+3000)
.4u Tom Hoge (+3300)
.4u Keith Mitchell (+3500)
.2u Rico Hoey (+9500)
T10 (including ties)
1u Tony Finau (+130)
1u Akshay Bhatia (+210)
T10 (ties are losses)
1u Tony Finau (+200)
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