Losing week for me on the PLL’s return from the All Star break last week, as I went 2-2 but lost 1.96 units, mainly on the Atlas loss. This week the league goes to San Diego for the California Redwoods Homecoming week. Let’s get some wins!
Chaos vs. Redwoods (7/27 3:00)
This isn’t the most entertaining matchup to get the week started. The Chaos are 3-3 on the season, coming off a 10-9 overtime win over the Whipsnakes last week. The Redwoods, in their homecoming this week, are the worst team in the league this year with just a 1-4 record. They’re coming off a 15-8 blowout loss to the Archers last week. Both of these teams have been bad offensively, with the Chaos averaging just 10.5 goals per game and the Redwoods averaging 10.2. Carolina does have an edge defensively though, allowing an average of 10.8 goals per game with Blaze Riorden in goal, while Cali’s allowed an average of 13.4 goals per game. After splitting their two games last year, these teams already played once this season with a close game, as the Chaos went on to win 12-11 in Week 2. I like them to win again here and I’ll take them -1.5 for half a unit. I like the under as well, which typically isn’t something I bet, especially at 21.5, which I think is the lowest total I’ve seen in a PLL game, but I’ll take it for half a unit too.
Outlaws vs. Cannons (7/27 5:30)
This game should be a lot of fun to watch. The Outlaws have been a bit inconsistent this season but have had some really solid matchups. They come into this week with a 3-2 record after a 15-13 comeback win in an incredible game against Waterdogs last week. They’ve been good offensively, averaging 12.2 goals but have struggled defensively, allowing an average of 14.2 goals per game. The Cannons I’d say are the second best team in the league, with a 5-2 record, coming off an impressive 17-12 win over Atlas (who I think are the best team in the PLL) last week. They’ve averaged 12.7 goals per game while allowing an average of 11.3 goals per game. Last season the Cannons beat the Chrome in both games they played, winning 14-13 and 12-6. I like them to win again here, which I’ll take for a unit. I also like the over, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Waterdogs vs. Atlas (7/28 3:00)
I don’t think this is a great game as the Waterdogs have been really, quite disappointing all season. Coming off a 15-13 loss in a really fun game against Outlaws last week, they’re just 1-5 this season with two overtime losses at home. It looks like this team isn’t making it to three straight championships. They won’t have a favorable matchup by any means this week against the Atlas, who are the best team in the league, coming off a surprising 17-12 loss against the Cannons. These teams are similar defensively, as the Waterdogs have allowed an average of 12.3 goals per game and the Atlas have allowed 12.7. New York is far better offensively though, scoring an impressive average of 16 goals per game, while Philly’s only scored an average of 11.5. Last season the Waterdogs won both games between these teams, winning 19-18 and 14-11. I love the Atlas to bounce back here from last week’s loss and I’ll lay the -2.5 for a unit on them. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Whipsnakes vs. Redwoods (7/28 5:30)
This matchup isn’t great, but I’d expect it to be a pretty solid game to end the weekend. The Whipsnakes are 2-4, coming off a 10-9 OT loss to the Chaos last week. They haven’t been impressive by any means this season, but I do think they’re slightly better than the Redwoods, who enter the weekend 1-4 after a 15-8 blowout loss to the Archers last week. Neither of these teams have been good defensively, as Maryland’s given up an average of 13.7 goals per game and California’s allowed an average of 13.4. The Whips do have a better offense though, scoring an average of 12.2 goals per game, where the Woods have scored an average of just 10.2. Last year the Whipsnakes won the only game between these teams easily, winning 18-11. I’d expect them to win again here, but I don’t think its worth betting on at -188. At the low total of 22.5, I don’t love either side of the total either, so I’ll completely lay off this game.
Bets
.5u Chaos -1.5 (-140)
.5u Chaos/Redwoods under 21.5 (-110)
1u Cannons ML (-175)
.5u Cannons/Outlaws over 25 (-115)
1u Atlas -2.5 (+110)
Record: 12-15 (-6.92 units)
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