Last week was another loser for me on the PLL, going 2-3 to lose 0.78 units. The PLL returns to Homewood Field this week for the Maryland Whipsnakes homecoming week in Baltimore. Let’s win!!
The books are now offering player props and some other props on PLL games now, which I’ll have to dig into more. Feels like we could find some value on those.
Waterdogs vs. Whipsnakes (8/3 1:00)
Not the best game to start of the weekend. Coming off a 12-11 loss to the Atlas last week in a solid effort, the Waterdogs disappointing season has continued as they’ve dropped down to 1-6, the worst in the league with several one goal losses. On the season their offense has averaged just 11.4 goals per game and their defense has allowed an average of 12.3 per game. The Whipsnakes start their homecoming weekend as they try to improve to .500 on the season. They’re coming off an 18-13 win over Redwoods last week to improve to 3-4 on the year. They’ve scored an average of 13 goals per game and have allowed an average of 13.6. These teams already played once this season in Philly, with the Whipsnakes winning 15-14 in overtime after the Dogs won both previous games between these teams last year. I feel like Philly’s the better team here and would lean they answer back with a win, but with the way their season’s gone, I’m not betting them here with Maryland at home. I’d lean the over slightly, but the best move is not touching this game, so I’ll stay off it completely.
Outlaws vs. Redwoods (8/3 3:30)
This should be a pretty fun matchup despite neither of these teams being very good. The Outlaws are 3-3 on the season and their young talent has been impressive at times. They’re coming off a 12-10 loss to the Cannons last week. On the season, they’ve scored an average of 11.8 goals per game, while allowing an average of 13.8. The Redwoods split their homecoming weekend with a 10-8 win over the Chaos and 18-13 loss to the Whipsnakes last week. They’re now 2-5 on the year. The California offense has really struggled, as they’ve scored an average of just 10.6 goals per game and their defense is only marginally better than Denver’s, allowing an average of 13.3 goals per game. These teams played in Week 4 with the Outlaws winning 13-8 and I like them to win again here. I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over with two lousy defenses here, but not enough to bet it.
Cannons vs. Whipsnakes (8/4 3:00)
This should be a really fun game. The Cannons are having a great season, coming into the week with a 6-2 record after a 12-10 win over the Outlaws last week. Their offense has scored an average of of 12.6 goals per game and their defense has allowed an average of just 11.1 per game. The Whipsnakes are 3-4 going into the weekend, scoring an average of 13 goals per game but allowing an average of 13.6. These teams played in Week 2 this year with the Cannons winning 13-9. Especially with the Whips in the second half of a back to back here, I like the Cannons to win this one and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Chaos vs. Archers (8/4 5:30)
This isn’t a great matchup. The Chaos are 3-4 on the season, coming off an 8-10 loss to the Redwoods last week. Although they have the best defense in the league, allowing an average of 10.7 goals per game, their offense has been the worst, scoring an average of only 10.1 per game. The Archers are coming off a bye week after a 15-8 win over the Redwoods in Connecticut a couple weeks ago to improve to 4-2 on the year. Their offense has been good, scoring an average of 13 goals per game and allowing an average of 11.5 per game. When these teams played in Week 3, the Archers won 9-7. I like them to come off their bye with another win here and will take them for a unit. I also like the under, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Bets
.5u Outlaws ML (-154)
1u Cannons ML (-170)
1u Archers ML (-164)
.5u Archers/Chaos under 21.5 (-110)
Record: 15-17 (-7.7 units)
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