Coming off hitting Scottie to win gold the Olympics (and the Fleetwood runner up to go with it), this week the PGA Tour regular season concludes with the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, NC as players take their last shot at qualifying for the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7131 yards, Donald Ross design, one of the easiest courses on tour, birdiefest, Bermuda grass throughout, both Par 5s are easily reachable by the entire field (over 70 eagles on the two Par 5s in 2019), eight of the twelve Par 4s are in 400-450 yards range, two Par 4s play over 500 yards, average sized tree lined fairways, just a few fairway bunkers, light rough but there could be weird lies out of the Bermuda grass making distance control tough, lot of less than driver off the tee, placement off the tee is more important than length similar to a Pete Dye design, GIR % is way higher than tour average (~73% vs. 66%), GIR from the fairway is over 80% and GIR from the rough is around 50% so that’s a huge gap, small to average sized undulated and sloped multi-tiered greens (back to front), very fast green speeds, there are a lot of shallow bunkers and water guarding the greens on a few holes, edges of the greens are crowned with large collection areas, one of the toughest putting courses on tour which is a staple of Donald Ross designs, high three putt percentage (~68% vs. 55% tour average) with the greens being the biggest defense of the course
Tournament Notes
- The Wyndham Championship has been played here since 2008, but the greens were changed to Bermuda from bentgrass in 2012
- Final event of the regular PGA Tour season before the FedEx Cup playoffs (Top 70 make the FedEx St. Jude Championship next week), so it makes this event matter a lot more but when this was to make the top 125 it didn’t seem to shake out to any actual results for the players on the bubble.
- Any skill set can win here
- Course history plays a big factor here
- 8 of the last 12 winners have ranked T15 for the week in driving accuracy (last year Glover was first)
- 7 of the last 8 winners here have won at -20 or better
Key Stats
Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s 400-450 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (26.8%)
Corollary Courses
- Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
- Waialae Country Club (Sony Open)
- TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS)
Crossover success and similar setups with short Par 70s and Bermuda grass
Field
156 golfers – Pretty lousy field
Defending Champion: Lucas Glover (-20)
Runner Up Last Year: Russell Henley, Byeong-hun An (-18)
One and Done: Sungjae Im
One and Done Considerations: Sungjae Im
Players
Sungjae Im: 10700: +1600 – Best golfer in the field, fantastic course history with 14,2,24,9,6 finishes here, 7,4,12,3,MC,8,9,MC,4,12 finishes in his last ten events, 43rd in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 31st in Fairways Gained, 88th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 32nd in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 12th in SG: ARG, 58th in Putting, 85th in 3 Putt Avoidance, also taking the T5
Brian Harman: 9300: +2800 – Has the talent to win here, a few good finishes here with a lot of MCs with 71,MC,27,6,MC,MC,MC,3,MC,MC finishes here, 60,21,9,21,33,24,26,47,12,MC,25,MC,2,12 finishes in his last 14 events, 21st in Approach, 54th in SG: OTT, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 17th in Fairways Gained, 13th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 47th in Birdie+ Gained, 47th in SG: ARG, 42nd in Putting, 44th in 3 Putt Avoidance, also taking the T5
Aaron Rai: 8800: +3500 – Has been playing great golf lately and has been in contention a lot recently with 75,4,7,2,19,14,32,39,4,MC,58,7,MC,35,23,19 finishes in his last 16 events, MC and 71 finishes here the last two years, 5th in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 17th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 2nd in Fairways Gained, 63rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 52nd in Opportunities Gained, 37th in Birdie+ Gained, 18th in SG: ARG, 21st in Putting, 24th in 3 Putt Avoidance, also taking the T5
CT Pan: 7000: +9000 – Coming back from the Olympics which is a small concern, MC,2,MC,35,37,MC,51,42,51,28,3 finishes in his last eleven events, former runner up here with 64,29,69,2,63 finishes here, 25th in Approach, 81st in SG: OTT, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 28th in Fairways Gained, 12th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 58th in Opportunities Gained, 41st in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in SG: ARG, 68th in Putting, 35th in 3 Putt Avoidance, also taking the T5 and T10
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (15%)
Fairways Gained (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
3 Putt Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.7u Sungjae Im (+1600)
.4u Brian Harman (+2800)
.3u Aaron Rai (+3500)
.2u CT Pan (+9000)
T5s (including ties)
.8u Sungjae Im (+280)
.5u Brian Harman (+475)
.3u Aaron Rai (+600)
.2u CT Pan (+1400)
T10s (including ties)
.2u CT Pan (+650)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 