I got crushed on last week’s PLL slate in Baltimore going 1-3 to lose 3.4 units. Let’s bounce back as the Outlaws have their homecoming weekend in Denver.
Whipsnakes vs. Outlaws (8/9 8:00)
Pretty interesting matchup to get the weekend started. The Whipsnakes after their bit of a slow start to the year are playing solid lacrosse right now. Coming off back to back wins in their homecoming weekend last week in Baltimore, winning 12-6 against the Waterdogs and 16-14 against the Cannons, they’re now 5-4 on the season. The offense has been solid, averaging 13.2 goals per game. The Outlaws have been decent enough, with a 4-3 record after they trounced the Redwoods in a dominant 18-5 win last week. Their young offense has been clicking, scoring an average of 12.7 goals per game. Defensively, these teams have been quite similar, with the Outlaws allowing an average of 12.6 goals per game and the Whips allowing an average of 12.8. Last season these teams split their two matchups with the Chrome winning 12-11 in Week 1 and the Whipsnakes answering back with a 12-5 win in Week 8. I’d lean Baltimore wins this matchup, but not enough to bet on it. I’d also lean the over, but with it set at 25.5, I don’t think there’s a big enough edge to bet that, so I’ll lay off this game entirely.
Waterdogs vs. Redwoods (8/9 10:30)
For as great of a matchup as Whips/Outlaws is to start the night, the PLL follows it up with this lousy game between the two worst teams in the league. The Waterdogs, after two straight trips to the finals, have been eliminated from playoff contention with a 12-6 loss to the Whipsnakes last weekend. They’re having a terrible season with a lot of single goal losses, scoring an average of just 10.8 goals per game and allowing an average of 12.3 per game. The Redwoods, who got smoked 18-5 by the Outlaws last week are only marginally better, coming into this week with a 2-6 record. They’ve been even worse than Philly has been statistically, scoring an average of just 9.9 goals per game and allowing an average of 13.9 per game. These teams met once last season, with the Redwoods winning 10-9 in Week 2 last year. I’d still lean the Waterdogs are the better team here and should win this meaningless game, but I’m definitely not betting them, especially at -188. Way too expensive. I do like the under in this one, not really expecting either team to score much, and will take it for half a unit.
Atlas vs. Archers (8/10 2:30)
Great game to start off Saturday between two of the best teams in the league. The Atlas are a force to be reckoned with and the best team in the league. They’re coming off a bye week after a close 12-11 win over the Waterdogs in San Diego two weeks ago. Their offense has been incredible, scoring an average of 15.5 goals per game this season, while their defense has allowed an average of 12.5. The Archers have been decent this season in defending their title. They’re 4-3, coming off a 15-14 loss to the Chaos in a close, fun game in Baltimore last week. The Archers offense has averaged 13.1 goals per game and their defense has allowed an average of 12 per game. Last year these teams played just once, with the Archers winning 14-13 in Week 8. I like a fresh Atlas to come out of the bye with a win here and I’ll take them for a unit. I like the over in this game as well, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Chaos vs. Outlaws (8/10 7:00)
Decent matchup to close out the weekend. The Chaos got a 15-14 win over the Archers last week in a really fun game to watch to improve to .500 on the season at 4-4. They’ve struggled offensively this season, scoring an average of just 10.8 goals per game, but with Blaze Riorden in goal (who actually scored the first goal of the game last week), their defense has been fantastic, allowing an average of just 11.1 goals per game. The Outlaws dominated the Redwoods 18-5 and play back to back this week. They’ve been a pretty average team, coming into the weekend with a 4-3 record, scoring an average of 12.7 goals per game and allowing an average of 12.6. These teams already played once this season, with the Chaos winning 16-11 in Week 1. Last year the Chaos had a 13-7 win over the then-Chrome in Week 11. I’d lean the Chaos are the slightly better team here but no shot I’d bet this in what I think is too close of a matchup to predict. The total’s a complete toss up, so I’ll stay off this game completely.
Bets
.5u Waterdogs/Redwoods under 23.5 (-115)
1u Atlas ML (-135)
.5u Atlas/Archers over 27 (-115)
Record: 16-20 (-11.1 units)
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A Town's Zone 