I essentially broke even last week on the PLL. This week we head into the final weekend of the regular season for the Utah Archers homecoming at Zions Bank Stadium. Let’s head into the playoffs with some wins!
Redwoods vs. Archers (8/16 8:00)
Not the best matchup to start off the weekend. The Redwoods have been a pretty weak team this year, coming into the weekend 3-6 after a 13-12 win over the Waterdogs last week. They’ve struggled on both ends of the field, averaging just 10.2 goals per game while allowing an average of 13.7. The Archers are a decent team this year, but I think they’re underperforming a bit at 4-4, coming off a 15-11 loss against the Atlas in Denver last week. Utah has scored an average of 12.9 goals while allowing an average of 12.4 per game. These teams already played a few weeks ago in Week 7, with the Archers dominating the Woods in 15-8 win. Last year Utah won both games between these teams as well, winning 10-3 and 14-6. I like Archers to win this one easily once again. The moneyline is insane at -315, but I’ll take the Archers -2.5 for half a unit. I’ll also parlay the Archers ML, Cannons ML, and Atlas ML for 1.5 units. I’d slightly lean the under in this game but not enough to bet it.
Cannons vs. Chaos (8/16 10:30)
Fun game here that should be a fun one to watch. The Cannons have been pretty impressive again this year, heading into this week with the second best record in the league at 6-3, coming off a bye week after a 16-14 loss to the Whipsnakes two weeks ago in Baltimore. Boston’s offense has generated 12.8 goals per game on average while their defense has allowed an average of 11.7 goals per game. The Chaos haven’t been great as their offense hasn’t gotten much going, scoring an average of just 10 goals per game. Their defense and Big Blaze Riorden in goal have been huge for them though, allowing an average of just 11 goals per game to lead them to a 4-5 record, coming off a 10-4 loss to the Outlaws last week. In Week 2 last season, the Chaos just edged out the Cannons winning 14-13 and I expect the Cannons to answer back here. Along with my parlay, I’ll add another half unit on the Cannons ML. I’d slightly lean the under, but not even considering betting on that at 22.5.
Atlas vs. Waterdogs (8/17 6:30)
Lousy matchup here between the best and worst teams in the league. The Atlas are a force to be reckoned with at 7-2, leading the league as they come off a 15-11 win against the Archers last week. Their offense is the best I’ve seen in this league since the PLL was formed, averaging an impressive 15.4 goals per game. The Waterdogs have been such a disappointment this year, already out of the playoffs after two straight finals appearances the last two years. Their bad luck continued last week with their fifth one goal loss of the season, losing 13-12 to the Redwoods to drop to a pathetic 1-8 on the year. Their offense has scored an average of only 10.9 goals per game. Both of these defenses have allowed an average of 12.3 goals per game. These teams just played a few weeks ago, with Philly taking yet another one goal loss, 12-11. I think the Atlas win this one more convincingly and I’ll take them -2.5 for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Outlaws vs. Archers (8/17 9:00)
These teams close out the season with a rematch of one of the best games of the year. When they met in Week 2, the Outlaws erased a 7-1 deficit and a 13-7 deficit heading into the fourth quarter, dominating the fourth and winning 18-17 on Brennan O’Neill’s overtime winner on the power play. Incredible game. I expect this one to be just as good. The Outlaws have over exceeded my expectations this year, coming into the week 5-4 after splitting their homecoming weekend, losing 16-9 to the Whips and winning 10-4 against the Chaos. Denver’s both scored and allowed an average of 12 goals per game. The Archers enter the weekend 4-4 and will close the second half of a back to back with this matchup. They’ve scored an average of 12.9 goals per game while allowing an average of 12.4. Last season the Archers dominated both games between these teams, winning 12-7 in Week 2 and then 13-5 in Week 9. I expect the Archers to get their revenge here and squeak out a close win, but I’m not betting either side to this one. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Bets
1.5u parlay: Archers ML (vs. Redwoods), Cannons ML, Atlas ML (+179)
.5u Archers -2.5 (-125)
.5u Cannons ML (-188)
.5u Atlas -2.5 (-115)
.5u Archers/Outlaws over 25 (-115)
Record: 17-22 (-11.5 units)
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A Town's Zone 