After the President’s Cup last week, the PGA returns with a swing season fall event at the Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms. Let’s hit a winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7461 yards, seven Par 4s are under 450 yards, strokes gained off the tee plays a significant factor here and different golfers will strategically play them in several ways, slightly above average width tree lined fairways with bunkers guarding the landing zones, trees aren’t too dense and penal, much lower driving accuracy here vs. tour average (54% vs. 62%), higher GIR % here vs. tour average (69% vs. 66%), birdie rate on the Par 5s is in the bottom 15 of courses on tour each year so they aren’t as easy as on other courses, the 15th hole is a drivable Par 4, Bermuda rough is only around 2 inches so shouldn’t be too hard to hit out of but could have some tough lies, above average sized elevated Bermuda greens with a bit of slope and undulation, guarded by bunkers, water and runoff areas, greens are pretty receptive
Tournament Notes
- Prior to 2019, this used to be an alternative event played on the week of a major. In 2019, it moved to a full PGA event in the fall swing season
- This course have hosted this tournament since 2015
- Golfers with a big range of talents have won here and plenty of long shots have won here
- Three of the last eight winners here were tour rookies
- Five of the last nine winners got their first PGA win here
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring (400-450 yards)
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (22.5%), 125-150 yards (17%)
Field
132 golfers – pretty poor field strength, typical swing season event
Defending Champion: Luke List (-18, in playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Henrik Norlander, Scott Stallings, Ben Griffin, Ludvig Aberg (-18)
Players
JJ Spaun: 9900: +3500 – His iron play has been elite lately, 26,3,9,45,23,10 finishes in his last six events, 68,MC,36,34,MC finishes here, 1st in Approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 17th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 8th in Par 5 scoring, 6th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 80th in SG: ARG, 41st in Putting, 12th in Opportunities gained, 10th in Birdie+ gained
Ben Griffin: 9500: +3500 – Finished second here last year when he lost in the playoff with 2,24 finishes here the last two years, hasn’t played since the FedEx St. Jude, 50,7,MC,MC,39,5,31,67,MC,2,MC,13,14,39,36,17 finishes in his last 16 events, 5th in Approach, 91st in SG: OTT, 22nd in Par 4 scoring, 4th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 54th in Par 5 scoring, 54th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 20th in Proximity 200+ yards, 30th in SG: ARG, 45th in Putting, 25th in Opportunities gained, 26th in Birdie+ gained
Chan Kim: 8900: +4000 – After a string of missed cuts he’s been playing really well lately with 26,12,MC,10,12 finishes in his last five events, first time playing this event, 3rd in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 20th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in Proximity 125-150 yards, 46th in Proximity 200+ yards, 21st in SG: ARG, 113th in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities gained, 4th in Birdie+ gained
Adam Svensson: 8700: +4500 – Pops in my model this week, 16,54,MC,MC,39 finishes here, 13,7,37,34,MC,16,56,27,51,24,,43,47,44,51,57,49 finishes in his last 16 events, 33rd in Approach, 36th in SG: OTT, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 15th in Par 5 scoring, 107th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 30th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in SG: ARG, 83rd in Putting, 27th in Opportunities gained, 60th in Birdie+ gained
Jhonattan Vegas: 8600: +3500 – Won earlier this year at the 3M at the end of July and qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, MC,MC,4 finishes his three times here (2020,2018,2015), 32,40,61,1,20,25,27,MC,23,MC,36,MC,60,22 finishes in his last 14 events,, 11th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 37th in Par 4 scoring, 24th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 11th in Par 5 scoring, 41st in Proximity 125-150 yards, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 71st in SG: ARG, 88th in Putting, 9th in Opportunities gained, 9th in Birdie+ gained
Mac Meissner: 8000: +5500 – Recent Korn Ferry Tour grad that’s been really solid with five T20 finishes since playing on the PGA Tour, first time playing this event, MC,12,59,16,20,MC,MC,57,5,MC,MC,10,MC,26,23,53 finishes in his last 16 events, 18th in Approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 15th in Par 4 scoring, 18th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 21st in Par 5 scoring, 23rd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 12th in Proximity 200+ yards, 17th in SG: ARG, 84th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities gained, 24th in Birdie+ gained
Rico Hoey: 8000: +6000 – Pops in my model and has been relatively recently, first time playing this event, 37,22,67,2,26,6 finishes in his last six events, 32nd in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 51st in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 102nd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 43rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 75th in SG: ARG, 40th in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities gained, 19th in Birdie+ gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Par 5 scoring (10%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities gained (5%)
Birdie+ gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.4u JJ Spaun (+3500)
.4u Ben Griffin (+3500)
.4u Jhonattan Vegas (+3500)
.3u Chan Kim (+4000)
.3u Adam Svensson (+4500)
.2u Mac Meissner (+5500)
.2u Rico Hoey (+6000)
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