This week the PGA Tour heads to a new course, Black Desert Resort in Utah for a brand new tournament, the Black Desert Championship. Let’s cash in!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7350 yards, resort course, course was just opened in 2023, at elevation so it should play about 5% shorter, three reachable Par 5s and two drivable Par 4s, the Par 3s are pretty short, 30+ yard wide fairways, very little rough which is just 2 inches, bunkers shouldn’t play much of a factor, water only in play on two holes, if golfers miss wildly there’s lava rock native areas with sand and brush in play that could be very random, very large bent grass greens without much undulation and slope with some runoff areas, weather and wind are the only true defenses of this course, should be a birdiefest
Tournament Notes
- New tournament at a new course that’s never hosted a professional event
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Birdie+ Gained
Field
136 golfers – Pretty terrible field strength
Players
Keith Mitchell: 10600: +1800 – Was the 54 hole leader last week and three putted on 18 to collapse and miss the playoff to finish 3rd, playing fantastic during the fall swing so far with 3,12,12,46,MC,18,MC,10,37,MC,20,14,MC,17 finishes in his last 14 events, 5th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 5th in Driving Distance, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 34th in Par 5 Scoring, 28th in SG: ARG, 87th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Seamus Power: 10300: +2500 – Finished 11th last week after not playing since the FedEx St. Jude gaining strokes in every category and crushing it T2G, 11,10,28,37,65,17,20,MC,27,MC,16,MC,12 finishes in his last 13 events, 35th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 54th in Driving Distance, 24th in Par 3 Scoring, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 51st in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 39th in Opportunities Gained, 26th in Birdie+ Gained
Chan Kim: 8900: +3500 – After a string of missed cuts he’s been playing really well lately with 33,26,12,MC,10,12 finishes in his last six events, 10th in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 28th in Driving Distance, 8th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 29th in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in SG: ARG, 109th in Putting, 17th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained
Mac Meissner: 7800: +4500 – Recent Korn Ferry Tour grad that’s been solid with five T20 finishes on the PGA, 37,MC,12,59,16,20,MC,MC,57,5,MC,MC,10,MC,26,23,53 finishes in his last 17 events, 21st in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 71st in Driving Distance, 26th in Par 3 Scoring, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 27th in Par 5 Scoring, 36th in SG: ARG, 76th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 33rd in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (15%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I have a slightly smaller card than usual this week with the variability and unknowns of a new course with a lousy field
Bets
Outrights
.6u Keith Mitchell (+1800)
.4u Seamus Power (+2500)
.3u Chan Kim (+3500)
.3u Mac Meissner (+4500)
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A Town's Zone 