This week the fall swing season continues as the PGA Tour goes to TPC Summerlin in Vegas for the Shriners Children’s Open. Let’s win!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7255 yards, seven Par 4s between 400-450 yards, course plays a lot shorter due to the elevation so the ball goes 8-10% farther on average here (average drives 297 yards vs. tour average of 283 yards), two of the three Par 5s are reachable in two by the whole field and the other one is reachable by a lot of the field because of the extra length from the altitude, pretty wide tree lined bermuda fairways that tighten up a bit around 300 yards, fairways play firm which leads to extra rollout and even more distance off the tee, missing fairways isn’t very penal with trees spread out and the bermuda rough is pretty short (but can give tricky lies and tough to control distance out of it), rocky native areas if you miss wildly off the tee, large bentgrass greens with average speeds and a lot of sneaky slope and undulation with putts breaking more than they look like they will even though the greens look relatively flat, 50 greenside bunkers and 3 inch rough surrounding the greens, top ten hardest course on tour in scrambling and sand save % but that’s a bit misleading because of how the course plays, GIR % here is a lot higher than tour average (73% vs. 66%), birdiefest with the winning score around -20 unless the wind gets real bad
Tournament Notes
- This event has ended in a playoff three of the previous eight years
- 12 of the last 23 winners here got their first PGA Tour victory at this event (6 of the last 16)
- 9 of the last 11 winners were T20 in driving accuracy for the week (Kevin Na, who putted lights out was the exception to that)
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (24.7%), 125-150 (20.2%), 150-175 yards (20.1%)
Field
132 golfers – pretty weak fall season field strength
Defending Champion: Tom Kim (-20)
Runner Up Last Year: Adam Hadwin (-19)
Players
Taylor Pendrith: 10200: +2500 – Hasn’t played since the Tour Championship but I like him a lot this week, 3,44,47 finishes here, 14,13,22,5,72,23,16,33,21,MC,10,1,11 finishes in his last 13 events, 23rd in Approach, 60th in SG: OTT, 97th in Proximity 200+ yards, 110th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 10th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 33rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 18th in Par 5 Scoring, 95th in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 56th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained
Keith Mitchell: 9200: +3500 – First in my model again this week after his close call a few weeks ago when he crumbled and finished 3rd at the Sanderson Farms, MC,3,12,12,46,MC,18,MC,10,37,MC,20,14,MC,17 finishes in his last 15 events, lousy course history with 60,MC,MC,MC,MC finishes here, 4th in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 7th in Proximity 200+ yards, 17th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 35th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 48th in Par 5 Scoring, 36th in SG: ARG, 82nd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Eric Cole: 9000: +3500 – I bet him every week of last year’s swing season and he never won but here I am again, playing well lately with 16,MC,46,18,7,31,46,7,6,48 finishes in his last ten events, 3 and MC finishes here, 11th in Approach, 117th in SG: OTT, 27th in Proximity 200+ yards, 39th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 36th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 89th in Par 4 Scoring, 63rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 10th in SG: ARG, 28th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained
Jhonattan Vegas: 8000: +5000 – Won earlier this year at the 3M at the end of July and qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, MC,28,43,MC,40,46,5 finishes here, 23,32,40,61,1,20,25,27,MC,23,MC,36,MC,60,22 finishes in his last 14 events, 30th in Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 34th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 60th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 60th in Par 4 Scoring, 38th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 90th in SG: ARG, 72nd in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Birdie+ Gained
JJ Spaun: 7900: +5500 – I’m still riding JJ Spaun who was one of my DFS darlings in like 2016, his iron play has been elite recently, pretty solid course history here with 46,15,35,MC,15,10,MC finishes, 25,WD,26,3,9,45,23,10 finishes in his last eight events, 2nd in Approach, 41st in SG: OTT, 5th in Proximity 200+ yards, 6th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 34th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 17th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 53rd in SG: ARG, 41st in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdie+ Gained
Chan Kim: 7600: +6600 – After a string of missed cuts he’s been playing really well lately with 46,33,26,12,MC,10,12 finishes in his last seven events, first time playing this event, 16th in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 48th in Proximity 200+ yards, 44th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 4th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 55th in Par 5 Scoring, 9th in SG: ARG, 89th in Putting, 36th in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Two years ago I hit the outright here on Tom Kim, who went bogie-free the entire week for his second career win. In my notes from last year, I thought about betting him again since I had a small card, but he wasn’t worth +1200 with how long he had been off…which was wrong
Bets
Outright
.4u Taylor Pendrith (+2500)
.3u Keith Mitchell (+3500)
.3u Eric Cole (+3500)
.2u JJ Spaun (+5000)
.2u Jhonattan Vegas (+5500)
.2u Chan Kim (+6600)
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