We get some late night golf this week as the PGA Tour heads overseas to Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Tokyo, Japan for the ZOZO Championship.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7041 yards, five Par 3s which are all relatively short (none over 191 yards) and three Par 5s with two of the Par 5s reachable in two by most golfers, five of the Par 4s are under 425 yards and the other five are over 480 yards with none in between, only one of the longer Par 4s has water in play and there isn’t much trouble off the tee on the long Par 4s, tight tree lined fairways that tend to get more narrow after the 280 yard range with fairway bunkers in the landing zones and water on two holes, rough isn’t too long but could have tricky lies and distance control out of the Zoysia grass, tree line is about 15 yards from the edge of the fairways so there is some room for error if you miss the fairway, much lower driving accuracy here vs tour average (~53% vs. 62%), two greens on every hole which is standard for Japanese courses but only one green will be used for the entire tournament besides the 4th hole which will switch each round, size of greens will switch from hole to hole depending on which is used with one small green and one large green on each hole, larger greens are average to tour standard and for the most part most holes are using the smaller holes, bentgrass greens with tons of slope and undulation but they are average in speed, numerous runoff areas and green side bunkers mostly on the front
Tournament Notes
- Small field no cut event
- This is a co-hosted event with the Asian Tour
- Because this event is taking place in Japan, it starts Wednesday evening rather than Thursday morning
- Fifth time this course has hosted this event (don’t look at 2020 event history since that was hosted in the US due to covid)
- No strokes gained data for this course
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Birdie+ Gained
Field
78 golfers – Better strength field for a swing season event with Xander, Hideki, and Morikawa at the top of the board, no Korn Ferry Tour members but some members from the Asian Tour
Defending Champion: Collin Morikawa (-14)
Runner Up Last Year: Eric Cole, Beau Hossler (-8)
Players
Hideki Matsuyama: 10200: +850 – Easily one of the top three players in the field along with Xander and Morikawa and he has a better price than both of them, former winner of this event in 2021 and followed it up with a win with T51,T40,1,2 finishes here, besides the President’s Cup he hasn’t played since the Tour Championship with 9,1,66,MC,23,6,8,35,38,7,6,12,1,22 finishes in his last 14 events, 6th in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 45th in Fairways Gained, 49th in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 40th in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in SG: ARG, 42nd in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 37th in Birdie+ Gained, Japanese golfers have had success here
Sungjae Im: 9800: +1600 – Was good at the President’s Cup but hasn’t played a stroke play event since the President’s Cup with 7,11,40,41,7,4,12,3,MC,8,9,MC,4,12 finishes in his last 14 events, T12,T29,T3 finishes here, 31st in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 29th in Fairways Gained, 32nd in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 11th in SG: ARG, 18th in Putting, 34th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Doug Ghim: 8600: +4500 – Runner up last week at The Shriners with decent form having gained strokes on approach and T2G in his last 14 events, T66 finish his only time here in 2021, 2,25,33,47,41,24,MC,34 finishes in his last eight events, 1st in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 14th in Fairways Gained, 27th in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 37th in Par 5 Scoring, 57th in SG: ARG, 68th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 38th in Birdie+ Gained
JJ Spaun: 8300: +4500 – He keeps letting me down but I’m back on him again, T6,T25 finishes his two times here, 34,25,WD,26,3,9,45,23,10 finishes in his last nine events, 3rd in Approach, 33rd in SG: OTT, 32nd in Fairways Gained, 48th in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 5 Scoring, 25th in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Fairways Gained (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards (10%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (15%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I cashed easily on Collin Morikawa who won this event last year by 6 strokes
- I could easily see Xander or Collin winning here, but they’re not worth betting on at +500 or +650
Bets
Outrights
1.5u Hideki Matsuyama (+850)
.7u Sungjae Im (+1600)
.3u Doug Ghim (+4500)
.3u JJ Spaun (+4500)
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