As the fall PGA Tour swing season nears its end, this week they head down to Port Royal Golf Course in Bermuda for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Let’s cash our first winner of the fall!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 6828 yards, very short yardage course with most golfers hitting less than driver off the tee on most holes besides the Par 5s, the Par 5s are short with all three under 555 yards and they’re the three easiest holes on the course with the ability for the entire field including the shortest hitters to get there in two, six of the Par 4s are under 400 yards with only one on the course playing over 450 yards (and only from the back tee boxes), all four Par 3s are over 200 yards, average sized fairways with bunkers in the landing areas, lots of elevation changes throughout the course especially off the tee, driving accuracy here is lower than tour average (~55% vs. 62%), Zoysia grass rough shouldn’t be too thick or penal, water in play on five holes, average sized Bermuda grass greens without much slope or undulation and are pretty soft and slow, weather is always a factor here with a ton of wind that changes the way the course plays out each year
Tournament Notes
- This used to be an alternate field event the same week of the WGC-HSBC Championship, which no longer exists
- This week is expected to see a ton of heavy wind
- Due to all the wind and how lousy this field is, I filtered my model to take into account moderate to very windy conditions
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie+ Gained
Field
122 golfers – Horrible field strength, the worst of the year, including in the swing season
Last Year’s Champion: Camilo Villegas (-24)
Runner Up Last Year: Alex Noren (-22)
Players
Lucas Glover: 9400: +2800 – Big fan of the Glove this week as he popped in my normal model and then once I added the wind filter he jumped to first, playing excellent golf during the swing season with 24,3,3,13 finishes in his last four events, T45 and T63 finishes here the last two years, 1st in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 1st in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 46th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 84th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 43rd in SG: ARG, 121st in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 30th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance
Justin Lower: 9300: +2500 – Coming off his second place finish at the World Wide Technology Championship last week with 2,56,MC,MC,28,7,33,33 finishes in his last eight events, T20,T8,T17 finishes here the last three years, 19th in Approach, 65th in SG: OTT, 7th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 42nd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 69th in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 17th in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdie+ Gained, 16th in Bogie Avoidance
Daniel Berger: 8900: +3000 – Fantastic in the wind which made him really pop once I adjusted my model to take the wind into account, first time playing this event, last week at the World Wide Technology Championship he had a lousy Thursday and Sunday but shot 66/64 on Friday and Saturday, after a string of missed cuts he comes into this week with 20,39,35,7 finishes in his last four events, 7th in Approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 22nd in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 6th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 1st in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 21st in SG: ARG, 87th in Putting, 38th in Opportunities Gained, 39th in Birdie+ Gained, 6th in Bogie Avoidance
Andrew Novak: 8800: +2800 – Pops in my model this week both with and without wind taken into account, 16,MC,23,52,24,70,7,20,20,14,MC,30,58,53,17,MC,9,8,8 finishes in his last 18 events, T45,T17,MC finishes here the last three years, 14th in Approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 53rd in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 16th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 47th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 21st in Par 4 Scoring, 34th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 11th in SG: ARG, 17th in Putting, 30th in Opportunities Gained, 27th in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogie Avoidance
Nick Taylor: 8300: +5500 – Solid in the wind and I like the value on him here, T23 and MC finishes here in 2023 and 2022, 33,54,25,MC finishes during the swing season, gaining strokes on T2G, OTT, and Approach in all four of his swings season events including the MC at the Procore, 27th in Approach, 63rd in SG: OTT, 20th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 93rd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 71st in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 82nd in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 44th in SG: ARG, 45th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Birdie+ Gained, 37th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Proximity: 100-125 yards (5%)
Proximity: 200+ yards (5%)
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds in moderate and windy conditions
Bets
Outrights
.4u Justin Lower (+2500)
.4u Lucas Glover (+2800)
.4u Andrew Novak (+3000)
.3u Daniel Berger (+3500)
.2u Nick Taylor (+5500)
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