The PGA Tour season concludes this week with the final event of the fall, The RSM Classic at Sea Island in Georgia. Coming off having both a 2nd place and T5 finish last week (both 54 hole leaders), let’s close out the year with a win!
Course Breakdown
Seaside Course (Rounds 1-4)
Par 70, 7005 yards, in dry conditions most golfers should be able to reach both Par 5s in two if the wind isn’t in their face, traditional links style course where wind is the biggest defense on this course, nine Par 4s between 400-450 yards, average sized fairways that get more narrow as you get closer to the hole, lot of golfers will go less than driver off the tee (average driving distance ~277 yards vs. tour average ~284 yards), ~71% of fairways hit here (vs. ~62% tour average), ~74% GIR percentage which is much higher than ~66% tour average, fairly tough and thick rough but the course is so short that it isn’t too penal, 47 bunkers, water in play on 13 holes, sandy native areas, seaside vegetation, water and marshland if you miss the fairway, fairways are rolling and hilly and should play firm, large overseeded Bermuda greens, most greens are elevated with lots of slope and undulation, bunkers and thick rough guarding the greens
Plantation Course (Rounds 1-2)
Par 72, 7058 yards, redesigned a few years back and played more difficult than it used to be but is still the slightly easier course of the two, all the Par 5s are reachable in two with none being longer than 560 yards, wide tree lined fairways and way more bunkers (81) than the Seaside course, the trees should make wind less of a factor than the seaside course, fairways are relatively flat with a good amount of roll but were not overseeded this year like they have in the past, water in play on ten holes, much smaller greens than the Seaside course with more bunkers guarding them than Seaside, greens are firm with a lot of slope added with golfers forced to hit certain quadrants of the green to have a shot at birdie
Tournament Notes
- Last PGA Tour event of the 2024 calendar year
- This has been a two course rotation since 2015 with all the events prior just taking place on the Seaside course
- SEC Championship is usually played on this course
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Opportunities Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (23.2% on Seaside Course), 125-150 yards (20.9%)
Corollary Courses
Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage), Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) – six of the last 14 winners here have a T5 or better on one of these two courses prior to their win here (Svennson, who won in 2023 had a 7th place finish at the Sony previously and Aberg last year had a T10 at the RBC Heritage)
Field
157 golfers – Not the worst field strength to close out the year beside Ludvig at the top (coming off knee surgery)
Last Year’s Champion: Ludvig Aberg (-29)
Runner Up Last Year: Mackenzie Hughes (-25)
Players
Brian Harman: 9800: +3300 – One of the top players in the field and has a decent price, plays this every year with 44,2,61,MC,14,32,4,MC,MC,41,10,27 finishes here, hasn’t played since the BMW with 25,50,45,60,21,9,21,33,24,26,47,12,MC,25,MC,2,12 finishes in his last 17 events, 9th in Approach, 40th in SG: OTT, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 77th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 21st in Proximity 125-150 yards, 18th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 79th in SG: ARG, 64th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 52nd in Birdie+ Gained, 8th in Bogie Avoidance
Ben Griffin: 9300: +3500 – Pops in my model as he’s playing well during the fall swing, 8,29,MC finishes here, playing really solid golf during the fall swing with 8,24,22,MC,11,37,50,7,MC,MC,39,5 finishes in his last twelve events, 8th in Approach, 101st in SG: OTT, 49th in Par 4 Scoring, 28th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 52nd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 15th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 21st in SG: ARG, 69th in Putting, 46th in Opportunities Gained, 37th in Birdie+ Gained, 25th in Bogie Avoidance
Eric Cole: 8700: +4500 – I rode him every week of the fall swing season last year and he couldn’t pick up a win despite a lot of solid finishes, 3 and 39 finishes here the last two years, 6,MC,16,MC,46,18,7,31,46,7,6 finishes in his last eleven events, 25th in Approach, 129th in SG: OTT, 95th in Par 4 Scoring, 119th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 22nd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 31st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 9th in SG: ARG, 35th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Birdie+ Gained, 61st in Bogie Avoidance
JJ Spaun: 8400: +4500 – Can’t stop going back to him in these fall fields and hasn’t lost strokes on approach since March so I’m back on him, solid course history here with 13,15,16,59,MC,37,2,57 finishes, 30,6,34,25,WD,26,3,9,45,23,10 finishes in his last eleven events, 3rd in Approach, 49th in SG: OTT, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 2nd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 51st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 42nd in SG: ARG, 40th in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 13th in Bogie Avoidance
Lucas Glover: 8200: +4500 – Pops on my model again this week and is playing well during the fall swing season with 42,24,3,3,13 finishes in his last five events, solid course history here with MC,23,11,36,9,73,40,15,MC finishes here, 2nd in Approach, 92nd in SG: OTT, 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 60th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 18th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 12th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 102nd in SG: ARG, 56th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 27th in Birdie+ Gained, 84th in Bogie Avoidance
Andrew Novak: 8100: +4000 – Going right back to him here after he let me down with his second place finish last week at the Bermuda after being tied as the 54 hole leader going into Sunday, 2,33,54,25,MC finishes during the swing season, not the best history here with 73,MC,26,MC finishes, 24th in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 56th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 35th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 24th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 88th in SG: ARG, 30th in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 26th in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Let’s hit the winner this week to close the season
Bets
Outrights
.4u Brian Harman (+3300)
.3u Ben Griffin (+3500)
.3u Andrew Novak (+4000)
.3u Eric Cole (+4500)
.3u JJ Spaun (+4500)
.3u Lucas Glover (+4500)
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