I made a very slight profit on the college football conference championships last week, going 7-7 to win 0.12 units with bets on every single game. Better than losing, being in the green for second week in a row. Before bowl season and the expanded College Football Playoff begins, we have just one game, a classic for Army vs. Navy, taking place this year at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, the home of the Washington Commanders. Kickoff’s at 3:00 today.
This year’s game should be fantastic as it’s the first time in so long that not only one, but both of these teams have had very good seasons, playing in high scoring games for a change.
The Army Black Knights have had a spectacular season, finishing the season ranked 22nd in the nation on the AP Poll. Their only loss of the season was 49-14 against 6th ranked Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium. Army’s won the AAC last week, beating Tulane 35-14 in the Conference Championship game last week. They’ve been really solid on both sides of the ball this season. Army’s offense ranks 32nd in the country, scoring an average of 32.9 points per game. They mainly run the ball, averaging 314.4 yards and 3.7 touchdowns a game, while the passing offense under QB Bryson Daily (who runs the ball a lot, leading the conference in rushing yards and TDs on the ground) has averaged 83.2 yards and 0.8 touchdowns in the air. Defensively the Black Knights have been the seventh best team in the country, allowing an average of just 15 points per game. They’ve allowed an average of 193.9 yards and 1.2 TDs in the air and just 104 yards and 0.8 TDs on the ground each game.
The Navy Midshipmen had a pretty solid season too coming off their 5-6 campaign last year. They’re coming off a 34-20 win at East Carolina a few weeks ago to end the regular season, but took their three losses in the four games prior to that. Navy’s run first offense has been pretty good this year too, ranking 37th in the nation as they’ve averaged 32.3 points per game. They’ve gained an average of 247.4 yards and three touchdowns on the ground and 128.2 yards and 1.2 passing touchdowns per game. Defensively they’ve been slightly better than average, allowing an average of 23.2 points per game, ranking 51st in the country. The Midshipmen have given up an average of 220.6 yards and 1.5 touchdowns passing and 159.8 yards and 1.5 touchdowns rushing per game.
After Navy won 14 straight games between these teams, Army has since won six of the last eight games between them. Last year Army won 17-11, going into halftime with a 10-0 lead. I like the Black Knights to win here again today in our nation’s capital and I’ll take them for a unit.
With both of these teams always have run first offenses, the Army vs. Navy game always trends under. Last year the under hit by half a point, going back to that trend that has hit in 17 of the last 18 matchups between these rivals. In 2022, the only year in that span that the over hit, it needed doubled overtime on a game that trended over the entire time. I think this year’s game bucks that trend though. The total’s set a bit higher this year at 38.5, which makes sense with both offenses for these teams rolling this season. I expect this year’s game to completely buck that under trend and I’ll take it for half a unit.
The only game where every player on the field would die for every person in the stands. I love America, I love Army vs. Navy and I can’t wait for this game.
Bets
1u Army -6
.5u Army/Navy over 38.5
Record: 165-187-7 (-41.57 units)
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