The PGA Tour’s back today with The Sentry at Kapalua Resort Plantation Course in Maui, Hawaii with a loaded, small field for the no cut event to tee off the 2025 season.
Course Breakdown
Par 73, 7596 yards but at a high elevation so it plays shorter (around 7100 yards) with four Par 5s and three Par 3s, resort course, lot of elevation changes with over 600 feet from top to bottom of the course and uneven lies as the course was built on the side of a mountain, most of the Par 5s are reachable in 2 but the eagle rate is low, huge very wide fairways with very little rough (over 72% of fairways hit, which is significantly higher than tour average ~62%), because of the elevation the average driving distance here is longer than tour average (~293 vs. 284), lot of roll on the fairways with a lot of slope and undulation, if tee shots are ridiculously wild players will have to deal with very tall grass, largest greens on the PGA Tour, massive and slow Bermuda greens with a lot of undulation (but they were a little quicker the last four years and had more bounce due to resodding), some greens have been flattened in 2021 to make the course a little more difficult, much higher GIR % here (~79% vs. tour average ~66%), very high three putt percentage here since the greens are so huge, 93 bunkers on the course and zero water hazards, right on the Pacific Ocean and wind will be a factor here
Tournament Notes
- No cut event
- Prior to Chris Kirk last year, both of the previous two winners, Jon Rahm and Cam Smith went to LIV
- Twelve of the last 14 winners before them have all been from the US (Jon Rahm and Cam Smith were the outliers)
- Winners the previous year here have done very well the following year
- Besides twice in the last 15 years, the highest odds of the winner of this event was Harris English at +3300
- 13 of the last 16 winners here played a tournament in the month of December across various tours
- 14 of the last 15 winners had at least three previous career wins on either the PGA or the DP World Tour
- 17 of the last 18 winner had previously won a birdie fest where the winning score was -18 or better
- 6 of the last 9 winners had either won a FedEx Cup event or a fall swing season PGA event
- Before 2021, only 5 non-US golfers have finished T3 since 2011: Day, Rahm, Hideki (x2), Laird, GMac, Joaquín Niemann (In 2022 all of the T3 were from outside the US in Cam Smith, Jon Rahm and Matt Jones. In 2023, Rahm won, but the other six T5 finishers were all from the US. Last year all three T3 finishers were from the US
- No first time player has won since 2008 (Daniel Chopra)
- Since 2014, before 2021 only seven golfers have finished T5 in their first appearance here, including Spieth, Hideki, Rahm, Rory and Brooks (so the elite). In 2021, Niemann (2) and Sungjai Im (T5) did as well. In 2023, Tom Kim and Tom Hope did too. Last year, Byeong Hun An did
- Only two of the 16 first timers here in 2022 finished T10
- Prior to Chris Kirk last year, each of the previous eight winners ranked T20 or better in Birdie+ % in the season that they won
- 10 of the last 12 winners ranked T25 in Par 5 scoring in the season that they won (and 7 of the last 9 winners ranked T5)
- Driving accuracy does not matter whatsoever here with the gigantic fairways as evidenced by that 18 of the last 22 winners here ranked outside the Top 115 in Driving Accuracy on the season that they won
Key Stats
SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: Less than 150 yds. (~40% of approach shots), Over 200 yds. (~40% of approach shots)
Corollary Courses
- TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic) – 4 of the last 13 winners also won the John Deere Classic (Spieth, ZJ, Stricker and Jonathan Byrd)
- Augusta National (The Masters) – lot of undulation and crazy slope changes in elevation
Field
60 golfers – Very field strength for a limited field events with every winner from last year remaining on and the Top 50 in last year’s FedEx Cup standings being eligible for this event (with several big opt outs from playing this event)
Last Year Champion: Chris Kirk (-29)
Runner Up Last Year: Sahith Theegala (-28)
One and Done: Starts next week for the Sony Open, so make sure you sign up. I will be in the big Pat Mayo one
Players
Collin Morikawa: 10100: +1100 – One of the top players in the field and his odds are way better than Xander (who was the other guy at the top of the board I considered), elite course history with 5,2,5 finishes here the last three years, hasn’t played since the ZOZO in October, 54,2,28,22,16,4,13,14,2,4,4,16,9,3 finishes in his last 14 events, 11th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 36th in Par 5 Scoring, 44th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 22nd in Proximity: 125-150 yards, 63rd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting
Max Greyserman: 8000: +4500 – Played fantastic golf during the fall swing season, first time playing this event, 4,2,28,33,2,2,21,26,31,21 finishes in his last ten events, 58th in Approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 55th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 9th in Proximity: 125-150 yards, 2nd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 36th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 48th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting
Eric Cole: 6900: +7500 – Still looking for his first win, finished 14th in his first time here last season, 15,6,MC,16,MC,46,18,7,31,46,7,8 finishes in his last twelve events, 10th in Approach, 33rd in SG: OTT, 53rd in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 5th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 8th in Proximity: 125-150 yards, 1st in Proximity: 200+ yards, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 25th in Birdie+ Gained, 11th in SG: ARG, 18th in Putting
Harry Hall: 6800: +9000 – Pops at the top of my model this week, first time playing this event, 14,13,9,35,MC,24,1,12,31,42 finishes in his last ten events, 22nd in Approach, 56th in SG: OTT, 21st in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 5 Scoring, 10th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 4th in Proximity: 125-150 yards, 13th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 30th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in SG: ARG, 10th in Putting, also taking the Top 6 each way on him
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
Proximity: 100-125 yards (5%)
Proximity: 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity: 200+ yards (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Because of the smaller than usual no cut field (which we’ll see a lot more of this year), there will be a lot of duplicate lineups on DraftKings, so leaving more money than usual on the table could be a good move
- I’m going to selectively use each ways again this year for longer shots. It isn’t profitable to use them on anyone inside around 50:1, but for longer odds it could be.
Bets
Outrights
1u Collin Morikawa (+1100)
.3u Max Greyserman (+4500)
.2u Eric Cole (+7500)
.2u Harry Hall (+9000)
T6 (Each Way)
.2u Harry Hall (+1800)
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