The PGA Tour has their first full field event of the season at Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu for the Sony Open. Coming off my second place on Morikawa last week, let’s hit a winner this week!
Course Breakdown
7044 yards, Par 70, resort course, winning score should be around -20, lowest driving accuracy course on tour (~54% vs. tour average ~62%) but isn’t really a huge factor here at all historically with plenty of golfers winning and having success from the rough, guys could still go real low with crappy driving accuracy because the fairways are very narrow but the rough is not penal, slightly higher than average driving distance here with a lot of rollout, both Par 5s can easily be eagle’d by all which are the two easiest Par 5s on tour, fourth most eagles here of every course on tour despite only having two Par 5s, all Par 3s are under 200 yards, off the tee golfers will see tree lined fairways that are firm, flat and fast, rough isn’t very high but could get thick and gnarly to hit out of with bad lies and the last few years they raised the rough from 2.5 to 3 inches, 83 bunkers on a few fairways and water is in play on five holes, average to above average sized firm and flat Bermuda greens that are well protected by deep bunkers and the rough around the greens is a lot tougher than off the fairways, wind could play a big factor but as long as the wind is down its a birdiefest
Tournament Notes
- First event of the 2025 One and Done season!
- First full field event of the year with a cut (Top 65 and ties)
- Course history here correlates with yearly success here only second-most on tour behind Augusta, guys that play well here continue to succeed
- Only four winners here since 2010 have been in their 20s, so experience on Tour matters
- 9 of the past 13 winners (17 of last 26) played at the Sentry the week before (Cam Smith, Russell Henley, Grayson Murray and Si Woo Kim were the ones who weren’t, Henley was also the 1st player since the 1970 to win their first time there), but their results at the Sentry seem to not matter at all (Na and Kuchar sucked at Sentry the years they won here). This also might have been elevated since elite players used to play the Sentry since it was the Tournament of Champions prior to 2023.
- 13 of the last 14 winners here had a T15 in one of their last three starts before this tourney (Si Woo Kim in 2022 was the outlier and did in his last four starts before he won)
- Prior to Cam Smith in 2020 and Kevin Na in 2021, the last 9 winners prior to that had a T6 in one of their last 3 starts before this tourney. Last year Grayson had a T7 in that span.
- 26 of the last 29 winners have played in at least two previous Sony Opens
- 21 of the last 22 winners here have had at least one previous PGA Tour win
- 9 of the last 13 winners ranked inside the top-50 on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting in the season leading up to their win
- In 2022, Si Woo Kim led the field by over a stroke in approach and led the field in SG: T2G
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie+ Gained, Good Drives Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (25.5%), 175-200 yards (23.2%)
Corollary Courses
- El Camaleon Golf Club (Mayakoba Golf Classic) – two of the last seven winners, Matt Kuchar and Patton Kizzire won these two tournaments back to back, Mayakoba in the fall and then Sony the same season
- Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (The Sentry)
Field
144 golfers – Few talented golfers at the top but not a great field
Last Year’s Champion: Grayson Murray (-17, playoff) RIP
Runner Up Last Year: Byeong Hun An, Keegan Bradley (-17)
One and Done: Corey Conners
One and Done Considerations: Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama
Players
Corey Conners: 10200: +1400 – One of the top players in the field this week and is coming in with pretty good form, great course history with 57,12,11,12,3,39 finishes, coming off a good finish last week at the Sentry with 5,7,22,50,25,10,27,9,20,6,26,13 finishes in his last twelve events, 24th in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 10th in Good Drives, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 33rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 36th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 12th in SG: ARG, 42nd in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained
Taylor Pendrith: 8800: +3500 – Pops in my model and comes off a good week last week on putting and approach with 13,8,14,13,22,5,72,23,16,33,21,MC,10,1,11 finishes in his last 15 events, 10 and MC finishes his two times here, 9th in Approach, 37th in SG: OTT, 48th in Good Drives, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 3rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 77th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 120th in SG: ARG, 15th in Putting, 32nd in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained
Luke Clanton: 8400: +4000 – He’s still an amateur but he’s playing fantastic golf and did on the PGA all swing season, first time playing this event, 2,50,5,MC,37,2,10,41 finishes in his eight PGA Tour starts, 9th in Approach, 29th in SG: OTT, 5th in Good Drives, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 16th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 35th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 134th in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, do not take him in One & Dones, I think the value’s fantastic on him here which is why at his price I’m going a bit bigger than I typically would to scale on that bet (I locked in that bet on Monday afternoon)
Harry Hall: 8100: +5000 – Doesn’t really pop as much in my model this week but I was all over him last week where he had a good showing after a really solid fall swing season, 8,14,13,9,35,MC,24,1,12,31 finishes in his last ten events, 42 and 28 finishes here the last two years, 47th in Approach, 92nd in SG: OTT, 125th in Good Drives, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 92nd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 111th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 3rd in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained
Lucas Glover: 7300: +10000 – Obviously has the ability to win, 30,42,24,3,3,13 finishes in his last six events during the fall swing season, MC,MC,5,50,76,MC,MC,64 finishes here, 3rd in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 57th in Good Drives, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 49th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 17th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 29th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 103rd in SG: ARG, 46th in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 46th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking him on the T6 each way at +2000
JJ Spaun: 7200: +12500 – My old dfs darling back in the day, he played solid golf in the swing season with MC,30,6,34,25,26,3,9,45,23,10 finishes in his last eleven events, MC,12,MC,MC,MC,47,MC finishes here, 2nd in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 88th in Good Drives, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 46th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 83rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 57th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 49th in SG: ARG, 37th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking him on the T6 each way at +2000
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- On DraftKings showdown slates, guys that start on the front 9 have an easier chance at getting 3+ birdie streaks, giving a slight edge
- DO NOT take Luke Clanton in One & Done contests. Since he is still an amateur status on tour, even if he wins he gets paid $0, which means you get $0.
Bets
Outrights
.8u Corey Conners (+1400)
.4u Taylor Pendrith (+3500)
.4u Luke Clanton (+4000)
.2u Harry Hall (+5000)
.1u Lucas Glover (+10000)
.1u JJ Spaun (+12500)
T6 Each Ways
.1u Lucas Glover (+2000)
.1u JJ Spaun (+2000)
DraftKings Lineups
Lineup: Corey Conners/Taylor Pendrith/Luke Clanton/Harry Hall/Lucas Glover/JJ Spaun
Contests:
$20 – $500K Pitch + Putt [$100K to 1st]
$5 – $150K Drive the Green [$25K to 1st]
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