The semifinals of the expanded College Football Playoff kicks off tonight with what should be a great game between the #6 ranked Penn State Nittany Lions and the #7 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Each of these teams had just one loss in the regular season and put together really solid defensive games in their first two playoff games to get here to the Orange Bowl.
Penn State had a really solid year, with their only regular season loss coming against Ohio State, 20-13 at home, and then they hung in the Big Ten Championship, losing 45-37 to the #1 ranked Oregon Ducks. I feel that the Nittany Lions had the easiest path to the semifinals, dominating #11 ranked SMU in a 38-10 blowout and then easily defeated #3 ranked Boise State with a 31-14 win at the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve.
The Nittany Lions were good on both sides of the ball this season, playing the 18th toughest schedule in the nation. They averaged 33.7 points per game, ranking 24th in the country. Their offense was pretty balanced, with Drew Allar averaging 234.1 yards and two touchdowns in the air per game, while their double headed rushing attack led by running backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton averaged 202.2 yards and 2.1 touchdowns on the ground each game.
Defensively, Penn State’s been elite, ranking seventh in the nation, allowing an average of 15.87 points per game. They gave up and average of 187.9 yards in the air and 1.1 passing touchdowns and just 100.9 rushing yards and 0.5 touchdowns on the ground per game.
Notre Dame had a great season at all. Their only loss on the season was a shocker, losing to a MAC team at home, Northern Illinois, 16-14 in Week 2 of the season. After that loss they rolled though, with four ranked wins in the regular season. In the first week of the Playoff, they beat #10 Indiana 27-17 at home in South Bend, and then last week beat #2 ranked Georgia 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl.
On both sides of the ball, the Fighting Irish have been elite this season while ranking 22nd in strength of schedule. They had the fourth highest scoring offense in the nation, scoring an average of 37.7 points per game. They were more of a run heavy offense, led by one of the best running backs in the country, Jeremiyah Love, as a team averaging 217.5 yards and 3 touchdowns per game on the ground. Riley Leonard passed for an average of 189.1 yards and 1.5 touchdowns in the air per game.
Notre Dame’s defense was the second best in the country, allowing an average of only 13.6 points per game. They gave up an average of 167.4 passing yards, and 0.9 passing touchdowns per year while allowing an average of 127.9 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns on the ground per game.
This is such a tough game to pick and I think it could end up being the closest matchup of the playoff, and I think whichever of these teams wins this game will go on to lose to Ohio State in the National Championship (who I think roll through Texas tomorrow, blog coming tomorrow). I think Notre Dame has the slight edge here and I like them to win and advance to the National Championship, likely in a close, one score game. With the spread at just 1.5, I’ll just take their moneyline for half a unit. I’m leading a bowl season pick’em pool and this was easily the toughest pick I’ve made in the entire thing.
I really like the under in this game. Both of these teams have spectacular defenses and I don’t really see either team’s offense getting it going enough to run the score up. I think this ends up being a tight grind of a game, and even at just 45.5, I like the under enough to take it for a unit.
Really pumped to watch this game tonight. Let’s go Irish!
Bets
.5u Notre Dame ML (-118)
1u Notre Dame/Penn State under 45.5 (-115)
Record: 194-209-9 (-35.27 units)
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